The only off thing about who may or may not survive the next console cycle is that Sony has so many exclusive games to help them out. Microsoft has turned most of their studios into Kinect of Avatar creators so we don't get Rare games anymore, we get more Avatars and Kinect Sports. Meanwhile, Naughty Dog has Last of Us and more than likely has their Uncharted team working on a next gen game, whether that's more Nathan Drake or a new IP for the new console, which is what they usually have done every generation.
Microsoft does kill it on XBLA exclusives though and they are ramping up first party stuff for next gen. They started up a few different studios for this.
PS does put forth a lot of effort, not saying they don't, but next gen will probably be a whole different story than the end of this gen.
The sad truth is: that Avatar/Kinect stuff is probably outselling the likes of Infamous (though probably NOT Uncharted).
And you don't necessarily need exclusives when a few of the highest selling games on the planet are sold on your console by a WIDE majority.