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Edited by Trace

It was just another day in the sleepless city of lights. Rainy and foggy, as always. As I leaned back in my chair, sipping my glass of whiskey and pondering my next case, it reminded me a little of the corruption that plagued this city. Rain gets on everyone, and the fog only clouds the truth behind layers of grey.

Before I had the chance to think up more awful symbolism to describe the city, the silhouette of a woman appeared in my doorway. A real doll, this one. Femme fatale to the core, and I'm not just saying that because of the quest. I could tell she wanted something. Something...urgent.

"Little late to come in here lookin' for something, miss." It was only 7:00 PM, but I wasn't used to visitors. Happens when you forget to advertise your services.

She sighed softly and slowly stepped towards my desk. "What I am looking for always comes late, darlinge." She had a way with her words, and an accent that I simply couldn't place. "I am in the neede of services to finde something near and dear to my hearte."

Now I was completely confused. "Is...is that a lisp, or why are you talking like th-"

"Never mind the way I talke, detective. I neede you to find me...informatione on a passion of mine."

"Seriously, dame, I don't know what your angle is, but that impediment of yours is givin' me the willies. Nobody says those words like that, sweetheart."

She pulled out a small envelope and set it on my desk before turning to walk away. "Just give me the statistics on...the queste. I'll expect dailye reports from you untile it leaves thee citye."

"OK, seriously, now you're not even trying with that 'e' thing, miss."

She shot me a glare before walking out of my life. I didn't know if I'd see her again, or if I could trust her...but the contents of the envelope were too good to ignore. I may be a man of strong moral character, but I never turn down a payment of bonus XP, not even in this city.

First, though, I had to give her a sampling of my work.

Los Angeles Black Progress as of May 22nd, 12:32 AM EDT

The gold line is our 4,000 user goal, the red line's the progress we need to exceed to succeed, and that bright green line is our progress thus far. In the fog of the night, sometimes colors aren't what they seem.

We're just now touching the red line we needed to stay above for success. With one more day to go, our chances are pretty much gone.

Now, I just had to give her the numbers based on the latest graph update. I'm not sure she really wanted them.


  • We're about 132.5 hours into this quest, with 26.5 hours to go.
  • Over the last day, we earned 87 more completions. That's about a 18% drop-off in completions from yesterday.
  • At the end of yesterday, we needed at least 14.34 completions per hour to succeed.
  • Our current overall rate is 25.3 completions per hour. In the last hour, our average was closer to 4.7 completions per hour.
  • From this point forward, we need at least 24.33 completions per hour to succeed. Since tomorrow's the final day, we need all 644 remaining completions within the next 26.5 hours or so.
  • If the overall rate remained stable, we'd complete this quest in another 25.5 hours. If the short-term rate stays as it is, we'd fail, attaining only 3,479 completions.
  • My Pessimist's Estimation, using that 18% daily drop-off, predicts we'll fail, earning only 3,427 completions.
  • My CURVE estimate still thinks we'll fail, and using a second calculation that I'm testing, it now predicts we'll earn somewhere between 3,456-3,472 completions.
  • My Arbitrary Estimation of Success is 0%. Four days in a row where I agree completely. That might be a record!

Any questions, requests, or criticisms? Post them here. I'll be glad to respond, though I'm usually slow and end up responding around the time I update the stats each night.

Tomorrow, she expected more. I knew I had to deliver, and I didn't want to hear any lip from her. That accent of hers was more unsettling than a dark alleyway.

Tomorrow, it would be:

Posted by Crono11

I love these graphs so much, and I hated math class.

Posted by Mordebir

Love the colours.

Posted by Yanngc33

Enjoyed this et eventhough the clues were kind of bad

Posted by OldGuy

I was wrong to think that you couldn't make a noir graph pretty... :-)

Posted by BoneChompski

Oh damn son we're trending like a funky mother!

Posted by BombKareshi

Oh, hey! I was wondering when we'd get stats for this quest, since it followed so shortly on the previous. I love the black and white!



Suck it, CURVE estimate!

Posted by CptBedlam

Pretty impressive pace so far. The thrilling finish of the last quest has probably reinvigorated interest in questing a little bit.

Posted by Sparklykiss

"Suck it, CURVE estimate" man, this is getting to be too classy for me.
If that narrative doesn't make an appearance tomorrow like you say, I will be incredibly disappointed! Or not. Find out in


That One Time I Tried To Say Something Funny


:D
Moderator
Posted by RobotHamster

Graphs are fun.

Posted by Mento

"I learned about PSeG's graphs from some rumor. You hear a lot of fishy stories like that on the force."

I wonder if this'll be the one to break the 4000 curse. A lot of buzz around this game, so I'm guessing there's a good chance.

Moderator
Posted by BoneChompski

Those of us that have completed the quest should try to cultivate an atmosphere of acceptance and harmony to fool more jerks into completing this.

Posted by Slaker117

My random guess, quest gets completed around 100 hours.

Posted by yoshimitz707

I was just going to come in here and call you Tracy. But damn!! That graph looks really nice!

Posted by Sparklykiss
@yoshimitz707 said:
I was just going to come in here and call you Tracy. But damn!! That graph looks really nice!
I think "Dick Tracy" would be more appropriate.
Moderator
Edited by Trace

Graph and stats updated, and initial post made as fancy as it should have been on day one.

Pretty big downturn today, but we're still ahead of the pace. Whether that remains the case, I can't be sure. After all, tomorrow's:


Yep, that's when we usually lose a boatload of completions and wind up on the path towards failure. Hopefully that's not true tomorrow and we lost all those completions today, but we'll only know for sure 20 hours from now.

So, how about some tables?
 

Completion Rate Over Time

Day Long-Term Pace Short-Term Pace Necessary Pace
1 173.7 50.6 13.02
2 76.6 17.6 10.09
 

Estimations Over Time

Update Point Long Straight-Line Short Straight-Line Pessimist's Standard Pessimist's Adjusted CURVE
12 hours in Succeed, 23.03 Succeed, 49.8 Succeed, Day 3 N/A
Fail, 2934
36 hours in Succeed, 52.22 Succeed, 106.3 Fail, 3688 Fail, 3074 Fail, 3524
Successes in hours, failures in completions.

I'll be back tomorrow with more of these numbers and silliness.
Posted by yoshimitz707
@Sparklykiss
@yoshimitz707 said:
I was just going to come in here and call you Tracy. But damn!! That graph looks really nice!
I think "Dick Tracy" would be more appropriate.
Nice one
Posted by BombKareshi
@PsEG: Dude, in case no one has told you this before, you are awesome!
Posted by UnsolvedParadox

Nice touch with the fonts!

Posted by DallyDoll

This is so great - way to commit to the theme!

Posted by wrathofconn

I like what you've done with the place!

Posted by Trace

Graph and stats updated. Yesterday was not a good day, and if the trend continues like it has, we're doomed. We'll need an uptick in completions to succeed, and that almost never happens.

Here's the daily tables.

COMPLETION RATES OVER TIME

DayLong-Term PaceShort-Term PaceNecessary Pace
1173.750.613.02
276.617.610.09
349.67.110.3

ESTIMATIONS OVER TIME

Update PointLong Straight-LineShort Straight-LinePessimist's StandardPessimist's AdjustedCURVE
12 hours inSucceed, 23.03Succeed, 49.8Succeed, Day 3Fail, 2934
36 hours inSucceed, 52.22Succeed, 106.3Fail, 3688Fail, 3074Fail, 3524
60 hours inSucceed, 80.58Fail, 3679Fail, 3271Fail, 3089Fail, 3356
Posted by BombKareshi

I guess everybody is too busy playing the game.

If we could at least stabilize our completion rate, maybe the final vacuum could still save us?

Posted by President_Barackbar
@PsEG: I love it when you do these, but I have to know, where the hell do you find the time to make these things? Not only do you have to run the numbers, but you always do a kick ass job of making stuff look good too.
Posted by ThePhantomnaut

Less than 1,000 to go. GET SHIT DONE OR I WILL HAVE TO MAKE HINTS ULTRA EASY.

Posted by Slaker117

Ok, yeah, pretty sure we're doomed.

Posted by icytower38

Probably the best graph work you have done to date. Great job as always though.

Posted by BoneChompski

Today is the day we witness the failure of the questing alliance.  Maybe for the next 4k quest we'll maintain our tumescence until goal achievement.

Posted by Trace

Graph and stats updated once again. Matters seem pretty hopeless at this point. If my figures are correct, 3,500 would have been an excellent goal, but 4,000? 4,000 has almost always been too much for community quests, and it's not likely to change here. Regardless, to succeed, we'd need our completion rate to increase compared to today, which almost never happens. I'll have to edit in some appropriately pessimistic "title" banners tomorrow.

Here are your daily tables.

COMPLETION RATE OVER TIME

DayLong-TermShort-TermNecessary Rate
1173.750.613.02
276.617.610.09
349.67.110.3
437.16.111.37

ESTIMATIONS OVER TIME

Update PointLong Straight-LineShort Straight-LinePessimist's StandardPessimist's AdjustedCURVE
12 hours inSucceed, 23.03Succeed, 49.8Succeed, Day 3Fail, 2934
36 hours inSucceed, 52.22Succeed, 106.3Fail, 3688Fail, 3074Fail, 3524
60 hours inSucceed, 80.58Fail, 3679Fail, 3271Fail, 3089Fail, 3356
85.4 hours inSucceed, 107.96Fail, 3615Fail, 3376Fail, 3534Fail, 3486

Successes in hours, failures in user completions.

Tomorrow, more of this!

QUESTS ARE VERY DANGEROUS, AND SO IS FAILURE.
Posted by Sparklykiss

I'd rather see this be a part of Unsolved Mysteries.

Moderator
Posted by Ocean_H
@Sparklykiss said:
I'd rather see this be a part of Unsolved Mysteries.
Posted by BombKareshi

I'm curious. Has there ever been a 4,000 goal quest that we finished in time?

Posted by BoneChompski

I'm driving the quest car off the quest cliff (see above).

Edited by Trace

Late update due to working on other stuff last night, but nevertheless, graph and stats updated for last night's numbers. I should be back on track for this week.

As I've sort of made clear in the first post, we're not going to succeed. 4,000 is a goal we've never accomplished for a community quest (to answer BombKareshi's question), and that's not going to change this week.

Now, your tables.

COMPLETION RATE OVER TIME

Day Long-Term Pace Short-Term Pace Necessary Pace
1 173.7 50.6 13.02
2 76.6 17.6 10.09
3 49.6 7.1 10.3
4 37.1 6.1 11.37
5 30.3 5.2 14.34
625.3
4.7
24.33
 

ESTIMATIONS OVER TIME

Update Point Long Straight-Line Short Straight-Line Pessimist's Standard Pessimist's Adjusted CURVE
12 hours in Succeed, 23.03 Succeed, 49.8 Succeed, Day 3
Fail, 2934
36 hours in Succeed, 52.22 Succeed, 106.3 Fail, 3688 Fail, 3074 Fail, 3524
60 hours in Succeed, 80.58 Fail, 3679 Fail, 3271 Fail, 3089 Fail, 3356
85.4 hours in Succeed, 107.96 Fail, 3615 Fail, 3376 Fail, 3534 Fail, 3486
108 hours in Succeed, 132.17 Fail, 3536 Fail, 3371 Fail, 3365 Fail, 3491
132.5 hours in
Succeed, 157.97
Fail, 3479
Fail, 3408
Fail, 3427
Fail, 3472
 
More in about 9-11 hours or so. EDIT: I have inserted the updated "Day 6" tables above, so as not to disturb a sleeping thread.