I saw Adam's PS4 conference reaction video. It was at the end of the day, exactly all the press conferences.
So he generalized: The $400 price + $5 a month (12 months) = $460. This would be something closer to XONE's $500 price. Now I'm thinking that if they did do a subscription subsidized model, it would be between $200-$300, plus $15 a month XBL for 2 years. This $500 just have XBL gold included, for free. So, the end-prices come out very similar now. Plus if you include a PS4 camera, and some move controllers, that PS4 price starts going up.
I also saw some live coverage from Polygon, w/ Chris Plante. I remember him say that Microsoft 'did' have more exclusives, but more "That I cared about." So that's interesting, if you think about it.