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Posted by TyCobb (1972 posts) -

Updated with Version DONE!! (2013.08.13) - See bottom of post.

I have been needing something to keep me busy lately and I always try to think of something to program since for the past several months my job as a developer has turned into the world's highest paid support job. Today I decided to try and automate SaltyBet. You may want to ask why. My preemptive reply to you is, why not?

Originally I was planning on just using Selenium and popping Java open, but quickly found I can do everything I want with the WebBrowser control in WPF (sure it's IE, but I can easily embed it into the application).

Quick rundown of what my current goals are. (Strike = Done!)

  • Allow betting from inside my application.
  • Setup a database to track as many statistics as I can in order to predict fight outcomes.
  • Record wins/losses
  • Allow certain stats to be manually entered to help calculate odds.
  • Attempt to find a way to handle characters that have the same name. (Not going to actually happen)
  • Make it so I don't have to log into SaltyBet.com every damn time I open to application. (Screw it)

The trickiest part of all is how I am going to handle splitting up stats based on characters with the same name. The information that is available is severely limited. I can get the name of the fighters, betting status (open and locked), and whatever else appears in standard text on the screen. My best shot is probably attempting to capture parts of the character avatar next to the health meter. This will cause me to try and force the Twitch player into running at a specific size so all my captured avatars are the same size no matter what size the window is. If that fails, I may just check a box to not bet when a character with several variations are found.

So yea, that's what I am trying to do and I plan on keeping this updated as I go.

Version 0.01:

Currently I can make my bets through the application for either Player 1 or Player 2. Now that the necessary prerequisites are fulfilled, I can start on all of the fun pieces.

Version 0.02:

Bet States are now being tracked. Database has also been created so I can now start logging fight results. My StreamPlayer is now constantly checking for updates on a background thread. It is currently keeping track of the fight and knows if the bets are open or locked. It's also checking for results.

I am also capturing fight lengths. Currently once betting becomes closed it will set the start time and once the results are posted it will save and determine the length in seconds. I am not sure how I am going to weigh this data, but figured I would get it in there now.

Below is what I just captured before updating this blog. The records that show 0 seconds are ones that I started recording in the middle of the fight. I built in logic to not record the times for those since it would be wrong.

No one can touch Alien Queen!

Version 0.03:

Currently this whole time while I have been doing stuff here and there and implementing the current set of changes, Version 0.02 has been running and logging all results without issue. So far I have recorded 68 fights and Mature is leading 2-0 having fought against Kyosuke Kagami (Although it's Kagami Kyosuke on SaltyBet) and Spawn.

So what have I done so far? I implemented a quick character editor in order to start playing around with implementing rules for betting. My plan is to have Rank relate to a tier list (pretty sure it will be renamed Tier in the next update). This will be for implementing rules based on tiers instead of individual characters. Right now, I just have the following:

  • Standard (For weighing character stats)
  • Always Bet (You know you have favorite characters)
  • Never Bet (Why waste the time and chance when you know they will just suck!)

That's about it. My goal for tomorrow (if I have time after work) will be to start writing the rules. I am hoping I have plenty of data by then. This baby will be running all night all day (if nothing crashes...) mining me my salt data. I may set up a Google Doc tomorrow that will contain all the data I found so far.

Stat Update!

It's been logging fights all night. Currently I have recorded 232 fights. Cyclops, Lavos Spawn, Saint Kyo, and Super Skrull all have 3-0 records since I started recording yesterday.

I also added my results so far to this Google Doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0As6_wRKX9cgtdFFTaXpxYnZIRHE4QlNrVG12a0xQSGc&usp=sharing

The ResultDate in the spreadsheet is in UTC so you if you are actually wanting to use it for something, you may want to convert them to your time zone first.

Version 0.04

Well, I broke 500 fights being recorded and over 600 characters logged. Unfortunately, this is missing the most recent 7 hours of fights because my internet went down about 5 minutes after I went to bed.

Currently I have it giving me fight records at the top and a predicted outcome. The predicted winner and reason is saved with the fight. I plan on using this to refine the logic on who to bet on. My goal is to also use this in order to give me stats on how good the predictions are. It is automatically betting for me right now, but it isn't very good yet and won't be until I start filling in the character editor above to tell it to just not bet on certain people. I really need to implement the tier system, but probably won't get to that until later in this week.

The Google Doc has also been updated with my current fight results. Still really pissed about missing the last 7 hours though....

Version 0.05

Was able to get in some of the rules I wanted to implement last night, but couldn't. I added in logic to check for new challengers (characters I haven't logged yet). If one of the characters is up against a new challenger, I now weigh on the fact if they have previously won a match and their win percentage is at 50% or more. If not then I will automatically bet the new challenger.

I was able to also import @itwongo's fight results so I have more data to work with. That has currently put me at over 800 fight results to use as data. This is mostly all before my current rules were in place. Most of it was relying on random bets if I didn't have enough data to work with. I am hoping that once I get the ranking and tier system implemented I can hit a 70% win rate. Currently I am just betting $100 and sitting at $3250 which I started at $684.

Version 0.06 (2013.08.07)

Completely cleaned up the rules I had quickly implemented earlier. Since I was planning on adding more and making it configurable down the line, I figured it was best to refactor them out into their own little system.

It also allowed me to quickly whip a small form to test the currently programmed rules. Yes, I could have wrote some unit tests, but I wanted a form in order to easily play around with configuration options later. Also will let me play around with setting wager types and tiers on characters.

I wonder if this will actually ring true. My data does not show they have fought yet.

Current prediction stats after implementing new rules:

WinsLosses
All Predictions1438164%
New Rule Set19773%
New Rule Set - Without Falling Back to Random Choice17480%

I am curious what those numbers will be tomorrow morning. When I say "Falling Back", I am referring to the fact that none of my rules determined a winner. This can be if both characters have 0 wins or if someone new showed up that I do not have data and is fighting against someone with a win-loss ratio less than 50%.

Now that I have all of this, I believe it is time to start implementing ranks/tiers. But we shall see. I'll probably get sidetracked by something else.

Version 0.07 (2013.08.10)

Well, development had been halted for a few days. Video card fried and my computer apparently does not boot unless there is a good video card installed. Well, last night I used a brand new GTX 770 to watch SaltyBet instead of testing out with games.

So, what did I do? I implemented a new fight rule. This will try to determine the winner based on if Player 1 has defeated someone that Player 2 lost to. It is currently checking 100 levels deep. I went with 100 because I was having a hard time actually finding a scenario where this rule would hit. Basically when I say 100 levels deep, I am referring to checking all of Player 2's loss winners and then checking their loss winners to see if Player 1 possibly has a chance. It only triggered twice last night while sleeping and predicted the winner once. I've already noticed an issue while writing this that I will need to correct.

I cannot tell if auto-balancing is going to kick my ass in this project or severely help me out. I am still at only 70% prediction rate, but starting at $700 last night and betting $50 has put me at $1600. Usually I would be lower than this because the payout odds are so one sided I can win 6 matches in a row and only have like +$25 and then the very next match lose and be at -$25. The only real safe bet is $1 or $2, but that's just dumb.

I think I just need more data. Those last 2 days of not recording any stats has really put a dent in things. With the auto-balance now, I am curious if my win ratio will stay close to 72% which is where I have always floated around.

Auto-balancing has made me rethink implementing ranks. It almost feels as though it will have zero impact.

Version 0.08 (2013.08.13)

Rankings! They have been introduced. After spending a couple of days slamming my head into my desk, I finally got base rankings sorted out. Thanks to my good friend Jameson and Bacardi, I was able to pull through my issues.

Basically it worked like this:

  • Seed certain characters with specific rank values. This being who I thought was better or worse than another character. I think I seeded something like 20 or so characters out of 1,200+.
  • Once those were in place, I looped through all my recorded fights. Roughly about 2,600 last night when I did it. I basically just started checking winner and loser ranks to determine if the winner should move up or if the loser should move down. I didn't just loop through once though. I replayed all the fights about 30 times in order to help spread out the characters and ranks as much as I could.
  • After that, I re-predicted all my recorded fights without using the Rematch Rule (if x character beat y character, bet on x). I achieved a 97% prediction rate. This means something was done correctly =)

So what does the bot currently do? It bets based on ranks and if the ranks match, it runs other rules based on wins and percentages. It is also checking fight outcomes and trying to determine if the character should be moved up a rank if it won or down if it lost. I think my logic on this is a little too safe, meaning it takes specific circumstances to change a rank. However, I think this is better than the horrible outcomes that could happen considering how much time I spent getting the ranks set to begin with.

So, how has it been working out? in the last 48 recorded fights since I made the last little code change this morning, I have won 38 fights. So roughly about 79% which is very close to my 80% goal. Of course this could end up being 70% very shortly.

Here are the fight results. (Sorry there may be a second Spoiler Block you have to click on)

FightWagerWinnerPayoutDate (EST)
Rubber soul vs Haggar600 on HaggarHaggar12August 13, 2013 6:23pm
Flandre scarlet vs Kim600 on KimKim4538August 13, 2013 6:20pm
Kujo jotaro vs Goku sb1600 on Kujo jotaroKujo jotaro31August 13, 2013 6:16pm
Robo-kyii vs Lei lei600 on Lei leiLei lei57August 13, 2013 6:12pm
Regina vs Kamiccolo600 on KamiccoloKamiccolo209August 13, 2013 6:08pm
Venom vs Dan600 on DanDan411August 13, 2013 6:03pm
Neco-arc vs Renamon600 on Neco-arcNeco-arc19August 13, 2013 5:59pm
Lei-lei vs Frieza600 on FriezaFrieza1319August 13, 2013 5:56pm
Change dragon vs Dragon claw600 on Dragon clawDragon claw6August 13, 2013 5:52pm
Gohan fight money vs Jay garrick600 on Jay garrickJay garrick207August 13, 2013 5:45pm
Minoriko aki vs Red ranger600 on Red rangerMinoriko aki-600August 13, 2013 5:43pm
Team reimisen vs Namor600 on Team reimisenTeam reimisen39August 13, 2013 5:39pm
The joker vs Misty600 on MistyMisty94August 13, 2013 5:35pm
Batman beyond vs Kenshiro600 on Batman beyondBatman beyond17August 13, 2013 5:32pm
Dio brando vs Silversamurai600 on SilversamuraiSilversamurai5August 13, 2013 5:29pm
Jason todd vs Nayuki minase600 on Nayuki minaseJason todd-600August 13, 2013 5:26pm
Visbou vs Fat albert600 on Fat albertFat albert26August 13, 2013 5:22pm
Harley quinn vs Jiroubou600 on Harley quinnHarley quinn123August 13, 2013 5:17pm
Gotenks gt vs Rogue600 on RogueGotenks gt-600August 13, 2013 5:14pm
Flash vs Kszsk-shuko600 on Kszsk-shukoFlash-600August 13, 2013 5:09pm
Ella vs (sman)600 on EllaElla507August 13, 2013 5:06pm
Dio vs Recoome600 on DioDio34August 13, 2013 5:01pm
The atom vs Goku ssj5600 on The atomThe atom44August 13, 2013 4:59pm
Trunks vs Mega weapon600 on Mega weaponMega weapon5August 13, 2013 4:55pm
Vegeta vs Dio600 on VegetaVegeta217August 13, 2013 4:52pm
Missmarvel vs Ash600 on AshMissmarvel-600August 13, 2013 4:49pm
Zombie vs Arrange_unknown600 on Arrange_unknownArrange_unknown11August 13, 2013 4:45pm
Ultraman vs Ky600 on KyUltraman-600August 13, 2013 4:42pm
Ryu vs Kaio shin600 on RyuRyu56August 13, 2013 4:38pm
Marvin vs Marrow600 on MarvinMarvin373August 13, 2013 4:34pm
Dark psylocke vs K' xiii600 on Dark psylockeDark psylocke309August 13, 2013 4:30pm
Kuma vs Jack frost600 on KumaJack frost-600August 13, 2013 4:26pm
Billy lee vs Asahina mikuru600 on Billy leeBilly lee26August 13, 2013 4:23pm
Rouge vs Harpagos600 on HarpagosHarpagos1786August 13, 2013 4:20pm
Ssj gohan vs Axl600 on AxlSsj gohan-600August 13, 2013 4:17pm
Uryuu vs Setsuna600 on SetsunaSetsuna16August 13, 2013 4:12pm
Think vs Neco600 on NecoNeco31August 13, 2013 4:09pm
Hotaru vs Ryu600 on RyuRyu388August 13, 2013 4:02pm
Bison vs Helion600 on HelionBison-600August 13, 2013 3:54pm
Milan flare vs Senna vp600 on Milan flareSenna vp-600August 13, 2013 3:51pm
Karen na hito vs Archer600 on ArcherArcher233August 13, 2013 3:44pm
Aura vs Exocist(dnf)600 on AuraAura10August 13, 2013 3:41pm
Batgirl vs Koryu600 on KoryuKoryu7August 13, 2013 3:38pm
Great s. man vs Batgirl600 on Great s. manGreat s. man225August 13, 2013 3:30pm
Namazu vs Yuri di aaaaaaa600 on NamazuNamazu18August 13, 2013 3:26pm
Mystique vs Chibi ubuu600 on MystiqueMystique66August 13, 2013 3:23pm
2k vs Kamek600 on KamekKamek14August 13, 2013 3:19pm
Psycho weapon vs Lex luthor600 on Lex luthorLex luthor34August 13, 2013 3:16pm

Only time will tell how it works out. I'll update later tonight once I have much fights under my belt with the new version. However, this does look promising.

Version DONE!!

After 115 matches since this morning, I am sitting at 87 wins and actual positive cash flow coming in.

I believe I have successfully accomplished my goal. Not the 80% I was looking for, but my 75% is now much more lucrative. Before it was 72% on easy bets and was constantly losing money over a period of time. Basically, bet $600, win like $200 after 5 matches and then lose the next 3 matches. That $200, just turned into ($1600). =/

So far since last night constantly betting $600 and starting at $7,000, I am at $22,000. Probably chump change to a lot of players, but I wasn't doing this to make a million dollars in Salty Bux. I just wanted the challenge and I got that considering of how much information I had to go off of. After all is said and done, it boils down to Player 1's name, Player 2's name, and who won and a date. That is all the information I actually used.

There are still some things I would like to do with the application, but I not sure if I will or not. I am calling this a successful project and will continue to record the fights. With the system auto ranking, this whole thing could come crumbling down if my logic is off slightly. So yea, it will probably end up slowly killing itself with shitty rankings. =)

My best bet so far was Fat Boo vs Koopa Troopa ($600 -> $3,817). There have been some really close upsets that would have made me a lot of money. If this thing bets on any of those, I will surely let you know.

Thanks to all for the help.

#1 Posted by Ravenlight (8040 posts) -

@tycobb:

I mulled over this exact idea yesterday but realized I don't have the skillset to make it happen. Instead, I learned how to not crash 100% of the time after taking off in DCS World. I'm tempted to say that I took on the more difficult project :P

#2 Posted by Chaser324 (6649 posts) -

Hmm...I didn't really think about doing this, but now I think I have to do it. May the best SaltyBot win!

Moderator
#3 Edited by Demoskinos (15013 posts) -

Awesome, will be looking forward to this.

#4 Posted by BigJeffrey (5076 posts) -

You are crazy.

#5 Edited by Chaser324 (6649 posts) -

The biggest problem with this is definitely going to be handling characters with the same name, but the statistics might work themselves out if those different versions show up with roughly the same frequency.

Moderator
#6 Posted by TyCobb (1972 posts) -

@ravenlight:

Very nice. One of these days I will break down get myself into those games. Perhaps next year after I upgrade my video card this year.

@chaser324: Oh man, challenge accepted! Yea, that's the biggest hurdle and I am pretty sure there's nothing I can do about it except let it ride. My original idea of looking at the avatars has gone out the window. I noticed that the bet screen does not show them. That was going to be my only chance of doing it.

Updated: Now logging fight results.

#7 Posted by TyCobb (1972 posts) -

Alright! This bad boy is going to run all night and tomorrow while I sleep and work. Will see about exporting my results to a Google Doc so I can share my findings.

#8 Posted by theoracleofgame (96 posts) -

I thought about doing this after losing so much damn Salty money tonight, but quickly realized I had neither the skill nor the time. Godspeed!

#9 Edited by audioBusting (1618 posts) -

Wow, that is super cool. Are you planning on building a serious predictive model?

(...You know what would also be cool? A virtual betting site for SaltyBet bots.)

#10 Edited by Chaser324 (6649 posts) -

I've got all of my automated screen scraping/interaction code working. Now, I just need to setup my code to track results and make educated guesses on how much to bet on who.

I'm just going to leave mine auto-betting $10 on red all day. I'll see about getting it to do something more meaningful tonight.

Moderator
#11 Edited by GnaTSoL (833 posts) -

why do this? IT's only fake money. You're gonna game the system for fake money?.......cool. okay. :)

#12 Posted by forteexe21 (400 posts) -

I think Salty was trying to prevent this yesterday and had the auto-update stop momentarily. Would suck if this will somehow change what we have now.

#13 Edited by Chaser324 (6649 posts) -

@gnatsol: It's not really about the money. It's primarily just a programmer curiosity thing.

@forteexe21: There are some ways he could combat this if it becomes a widespread problem (periodic CAPTCHA, etc.), but it remains to be seen if that actually happens.

Moderator
#14 Posted by TyCobb (1972 posts) -

@audiobusting: I like the way you think. I am going to try to and build to it to make the most money, so... as serious as I can get it. The only problem is I do not have much data to scrape which is why I am also planning on implementing tiers.

@gnatsol: Because I want out of the salt mines! It's going to be my time! Also, this thing predicts stock prices.

Not really.

But maybe

@chaser324: Glad to hear you got something going. Curious what luck you have betting Red. I ended up in the hole.

Updated: Current results are in a Google Doc. Link in post.

#15 Posted by GnaTSoL (833 posts) -

I say everyone is better off at learning more about the mugen community. The rich are rich because they came in knowing about most of the characters being used. Their strengths, weaknesses, how they play.

#16 Posted by Itwongo (1217 posts) -

This is awesome, can't wait to see what comes of this. Gotta get them saltybux

#17 Posted by TyCobb (1972 posts) -

Hmmm.... just noticed Cammy fought under the name "Psycho weapon". Hope that name is legit for her seeing as how the name "Cammy" was displayed in the game.

#18 Posted by Chaser324 (6649 posts) -

@tycobb: My "Bet $10 on Red" policy has put me at about +$200 today.

Moderator
#19 Posted by Darji (5294 posts) -

so basically you are trying to ruin the fun? Great goal guy great goal. If I could report you I would...

#20 Edited by TyCobb (1972 posts) -

@darji said:

so basically you are trying to ruin the fun? Great goal guy great goal. If I could report you I would...

This isn't getting released anywhere and I paid for a subscription to help support the site. Don't be mad because what I am doing affects you no possible away except for a few fake dollars here and there.

#21 Edited by Itwongo (1217 posts) -

Hey, do you want us to give you our win/loss records? That's, like, free data, and it tracks when the match happened so you can avoid dupes.

#22 Posted by TyCobb (1972 posts) -

@itwongo: I would love any data you have prior to 8/5/2013 8:30 PST. Just let me know what time zone the times are in so I can convert to UTC. Much appreciated! I am currently in the process of building in the display for giving me the fighter win/loss records once the bets are open so this will be perfect. So far I have recorded 417 fights since last night.

#23 Edited by Itwongo (1217 posts) -

@tycobb: It doesn't record times on the better's timezone, as far as I can tell. I'm practically addicted to this thing, but I definitely wasn't up til 3:40 am last night. I'm on Pacific time, so that'd be three hours ahead of me. So it's recording data in East Coast time.

And separating same-name characters is gonna be difficult, unfortunately.

Big ol' table:

TournamentMatchWager $WinnerPayoutDate
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#24 Posted by TyCobb (1972 posts) -

@itwongo: Awesome. Thanks a lot for this. I'll try to get it imported soon before my blog update. I'll also update my Google Doc of seen characters and results.

#25 Posted by TyCobb (1972 posts) -

Google Doc has been updated and updated this blog wtih Version 0.04. Hopefully I can @itwongo's results imported in during lunch today.

#26 Posted by Chaser324 (6649 posts) -

Sounds like you're having some solid success. I haven't had time this week to get my own bot doing anything "smart", but I'll let you know when I do.

Moderator
#27 Posted by TyCobb (1972 posts) -

@chaser324 What are you writing it in? I meant to ask before, but forgot. I am curious as to what you are using to interact with the page.

#28 Edited by Chaser324 (6649 posts) -

@tycobb:

I guess I'm taking a slightly different approach from you. What I'm building is a bit more of a hands off thing that doesn't really allow for any user interaction while it's running.

My basic approach here is to build this as two separate components:

  • I have my site scraper for interacting with the SaltyBet website written as a CasperJS based script. If you've never used CasperJS, it's an offshoot of PhantomJS which is essentially just a headless WebKit browser. It's generally used for testing web apps, but I've found it to be extremely useful for web scraping, too.
  • Then, I also have a very simple NodeJS server that manages all of the data in a MongoDB database and accepts GET/POST/PUT requests from the CasperJS scraper to access and update data. Part of my thought process for separating this portion out is that I could potentially build a nice looking interface and throw it up on a public webserver so that everyone could have access to this data.

Right now, I've got the scraper and server working as separate components, and I really just need to get them tied together.

Once I get it all in a somewhat complete state, I'll make my GitHub repo public and drop a link in here.

Moderator
#29 Posted by TyCobb (1972 posts) -

@chaser324: That's a pretty nice approach. I am going to have to look into MongoDB. I've always been curious about document databases, but always forget about them when I start a project. It's my comfort zone and usually I want to get stuff done ASAP.

No development last night and probably won't be any until this weekend. Video card fried yesterday and the machine won't boot unless I have a working one. New one should arrive tomorrow and I will of course want to test games out with it ;)

Just imagining all the stats I am missing out on just pisses me off. lol

#30 Posted by TyCobb (1972 posts) -

I seem to be doing okay betting $50 so far. I still have some losses in there, but somehow the odds have made it so I am actually matching by bet or more on a few of my wins.

FightWinnerAutomated Bet LogPayout
Master Hand vs RogueRogueBetting on Rogue (5-1)(83.000 %). Better win percentage than Master hand (3-1)(75.00 %)$959
Fireman vs Nanase(+d)&mayuFiremanBetting on Fireman (1-1). Nanase(+d)&mayu is a New Challenger and Fireman has wins of 50.00 %$1326
Chrisg Sakurigan vs JeiceJeiceBetting on Jeice (2-1)(67.000 %). Better win percentage than Chrisg sakurigan (0-1)(0.00 %)$548

I would probably have a lot more money if I just let the bot decide. I keep wanting to go all in on ones I think will win and that usually just ends up resetting me. D'OH!

#31 Edited by Fredchuckdave (5717 posts) -

@tycobb: Run multiple accounts with different browsers and you might have better results (one where you input one where you don't etc).

#32 Posted by two_socks (232 posts) -

This is simultaneously ridiculous and rad.

#33 Posted by I_Stay_Puft (3568 posts) -

Good job dude, this sounds amazing.

#34 Posted by Itwongo (1217 posts) -

You're famous, dawg!

#35 Posted by Grixxel (768 posts) -

This seems to be spot on for something like Saltybet. Good job!

#36 Posted by TyCobb (1972 posts) -
#37 Posted by granderojo (1792 posts) -

Are you planning on releasing this when it's done? Looks great.

#38 Posted by ttthrasher (82 posts) -

Does your bot have access to the actual Twitch video stream? If so, you could use the character icon next to the health bar to determine who it is when there are name collisions. The icons are always the same and in the same place.

#39 Edited by TyCobb (1972 posts) -

@ttthrasher: I thought about scraping for the icons, but the problem is that the icon isn't in the weigh-in screen. I could have more accurate fight records for different flavors of characters, but when time comes to bet, I still wouldn't know who to bet for and leaves me now having to guess which fight record I want to use.

@granderojo: I am still throwing the idea around. There are still a lot of things that need to be done in order to make that happen. Change UI controls to get off of third-party due to license issue and change the database to something else. Most importantly is somehow getting my win rate to 75%-80% (shooting for 80%). Right now it is at 72% and there's just no way that is good enough to release. SaltyBet is growing and changes seem to be getting made. I need at least another week of fight data in order see where my stats are and where I can improve.

#40 Posted by kindgineer (2768 posts) -

I'm still trying to piece together my brain that exploded when I tried to follow your post. Awesome stuff, duder.

#41 Posted by FadedOasis (61 posts) -
#42 Edited by Chaser324 (6649 posts) -

@fadedoasis said:

Gonna pop in here and warn you guys. Apparently, using bots is expressly forbidden by Salty Bet. Scroll down to the bottom.

Damn...well, I can pretty easily just remove the automated betting portion of my project and just use it for the purpose of stat tracking. The Illuminati stats don't go all that deep.

Moderator
#43 Posted by MarkWahlberg (4606 posts) -

@fadedoasis said:

Gonna pop in here and warn you guys. Apparently, using bots is expressly forbidden by Salty Bet. Scroll down to the bottom.

Damn...well, I can pretty easily just remove the automated betting portion of my project and just use it for the purpose of stat tracking. The Illuminati stats don't go all that deep.

Ah, you may have bots watching bots, but who watches the botwatchers?

#44 Edited by TyCobb (1972 posts) -

They may delete my bet history, but they won't delete my database! xD

I am not releasing this so oh well. This is more of a personal project to just see if I can get great results. Releasing it would just be a bad idea because all the stats odds would be so one sided... wait it already is like that.

I don't really think my automatic bets of $50 and my $3800 in Salty Bucks are hurting anyone's bets lol

#45 Edited by Jolly2702 (5 posts) -

A few tips from an ex pro poker player.

Risk of ruin(going broke) was a key factor in what level of poker one would play, as your bankroll is your livelyhood. This includes any money that you could use to resupply your roll(I played online only, so it was easy to mix your life roll with poker roll if you didn't make strict rules). The problem is, in SB's case, there is no risk of ruin, as you constantly have a resupply of Sbucks if you go broke. The only time you risk "ruining" anything is when you've finally built up a roll to where losing it would mean hours or days of work.

In this case I would never make the minimum bet less than your base resupply(depends on what level you have achieved or if you've given money to SB), according to this: http://saltybet.com/leveling . after that, well, how risk adverse do you want to be? Cash game players that play at stakes just high enough to make a living(in Canada, I would never play lower than $.50/1.00 blinds for no limit holdem, if you know what that is), usually never go below 100 buyins. Others would call this extremely conservative, and for the purposes of SB, I would as well (however 100 buyins would put you well below a 1% risk of ruin, even if you were living off of poker site bonuses). To get a real handle on this, though, you really need to know your winrate.

Winrate in poker is usually calculated at big blinds per 100 hands(bb/100). Buyins are usually calculated at 100 times the big blind(remember that $.50/1.00 thing in the previous paragraph? the .5 is the small blind and the 1 is the big blind, id going into more poker rules, but that would just confuse things). this number was arbitrarily decided to limit the amount of money at a single given table of online poker by the online poker sites, if you're wondering where it came from.

This doesn't help us in this case, except that it does tell us what kind of expected percentages of a buyin we'd expect to see over a given number of bets. these days, if you are winning at 5 bb/100 you are considered a pretty good poker player. The reason I go into this is because it allows us to use a site like this

http://www.reviewpokerrooms.com/poker-games/general/bankroll-requirements.html

to calculate how big of a bankroll we want. We need to use this site because I don't know of a utility that will do it buyins. WARNING: that site uses BB/100, or big bets, which is double the value of bb. this comes from a time when people played limit, not that you care. so if you had a 2% buyin per 100 bets winrate, it would be 2bb/100 or 1BB/100. We still have the problem of standard deviation, which is explained here:

http://easycalculation.com/statistics/standard-deviation.php

once you calculate those numbers, and put it into the first site I linked, out pops a number of big bets(or 2% of our buyin). I apologize if this was overly confusing, because it didn't have to be if I had the right tools. I have a feeling that because of this, all of this extrapolation will lead you down a garden path as far as actual numbers go. Also, it doesn't help that SD is really advanced(I don't really understand it, I had a database myself for all of my poker hands played, and it popped out a number for me based on them).

Anyway, what it comes down to, is that you need a fairly large database of bets to find an accurate SD(I think, math majors probably should look over this and maybe spruce my post up so it is more understandable). The other problem is, that ODDS CHANGE BASED ON AN EXTREMELY LARGE HUMAN FACTOR(twitch chat in this case), and that you won't know the true odds until betting is over. What we could do, is start to track values based on odds for each individual fighter(which will in turn show their general popularity trending), and extrapolate based on past histories(something you are already doing).

But we can take this a step further. At this point we are basically betting with the community(maybe a little bit better due to new bettors, etc.), which is going to get us to break even over time for the most part. What we need is to start factoring favouritism of heroes, chat trolling, etc and use that to size our bets based on when it is most profitable to bet. This is getting into blackjack territory and card counting, but it comes down to this: if we know the value of a certain hero is higher than another, but the odds will not show those numbers, we should be betting bigger the more disparity there is between those two numbers(which could mean we are betting on the hero more likely to fail, if we are getting the right odds). That means that OP heroes, while guaranteed to produce profit, aren't going to produce the biggest margins(unless they are against other OP heroes). This tends to mean that closer matches are the ones we will net the most profit on, and thus should be bet on with bigger bets. Also, the more powerful the two heroes are combined, the more variance there will be in the match, especially if they are extremely close in value to each other(this is the kind of thing that would lower our betting size). As our database improves, we can also start to predict upsets against conventional wisdom(which is different from trolling or troll wisdom, and usually has something to do with how the big bettors that aren't betting their whole bankroll every time are betting, which means we will probably have to start tracking that as well), which will replace close matches as our big money makers. I also think this means we can start tracking keywords in chat, and extrapolating how that affects odds based on W:L records and newness of heroes.

Anyway, hopefully this can get picked up by someone who actually can do math, as you don't actually need to know math to play poker, you just need to value concepts properly.

If you have any questions, PM me here and hopefully I'll see that I have PMs, and that I can help. I come to this site frequently, but I don't comment/use the forums much, so I'm not logged in often/check to see if I have any PMs cause I don't know anyone here.

Oh yea, don't forget that our own bets will have an effect the overall odds, and that the richer we get, the more of an effect we will have.

#46 Posted by Fattony12000 (7522 posts) -

Gonna pop in here and warn you guys. Apparently, using bots is expressly forbidden by Salty Bet. Scroll down to the bottom.

It also says "THE UNDERGROUND SYNDICATE" right there at the bottom.

pussyclart.png
COWARDS FROM SB GET HIT LIKE CHUN-LI

#47 Posted by Jolly2702 (5 posts) -

One other thought before I go, A more accurate way of tracking strength is how badly someone won or lost, and factoring that into variance. If a fight is close, either side could've won, thus they may not necessarily be winning every single time, which means we get more meaningful data faster.

#48 Edited by Darji (5294 posts) -

@tycobb said:

@darji said:

so basically you are trying to ruin the fun? Great goal guy great goal. If I could report you I would...

This isn't getting released anywhere and I paid for a subscription to help support the site. Don't be mad because what I am doing affects you no possible away except for a few fake dollars here and there.

So and now you are talking of releasing it and offer charts etc. Yeah sure. Way to ruin the fun. But yeah that is so human like always try to destroy the good things by trying to controlling them...

Have fun with you ridiculous task.....

#49 Posted by Chaser324 (6649 posts) -

Yeah, fuck it. I'm calling this whole thing off. Even if I tracked stats and made them publicly available, I feel like I'd be undercutting Salty's business of selling that info (although I think he could and should improve the Illuminati stat tracking).

Moderator
#50 Posted by Snail (8616 posts) -

Who the fuck is Salty?

I go away for a week and the world goes bananas.

I am so confused.