While I personally have shifted the majority of my gaming from consoles to PC this year, I very much consider myself an enthusiast. I would not expect people I see at the store, or even some acquaintances of mine, to leave the console habitat due to what others have said: simplicity. The fact that the only real hurdle with a console is plugging it into a TV is hard to ignore when looking at prevalence with the masses. Even with all this said, I still don't think that current pricing strategies on XBL and PSN can survive, since I would think that even the casual consumer would wise up and come to expect better pricing on a digital product. At the same time, I realize that network limitations and long-established bonds to physical products can significantly hamper the chances of people finding these digital experiences if they are not already actively interested in finding them.
It's possible that Steam could completely alter Microsoft and Sony's strategies in the future with whatever hardware they're working on, but for now I wouldn't expect anything too great from consoles in terms of their digital space. I think release-day availability of digital downloads will be ubiquitous on the new consoles, but I don't see the discounts that Steam and other online retailers feature becoming part of the consoles' ecosystems; due to them not wanting to ruin relationships with retailers just yet, along with the fact that they can continue to make enormous profits by keeping the pricing strategies the same.
Even with all this said, I remain hopeful that my opinion is wrong and that there are great surprises for us, but I'm skeptical. If I had to pick one console manufacturer that might be getting closer to a Steam-like innovation, it would be Sony with PS+. I think PS+ is a fantastic service, and am interested to see how it further develops in the next generation--especially with Sony's acquisition of Gaikai.
p.s. I also think that the ease of chatting with friends on XBL is unmatched (from my experience). I think that if a proper "party" system were to be implemented to Steam, Origin, or any other digital distributor, it would be very worrisome for the consoles going forward. Or maybe such a system already exists, and I have yet to hear of it.
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