@dalai said:
If anything, Microsoft is the company most likely to leave the console wars in the future, but who knows when that will be. At least Microsoft can always rely on PC gaming as a crutch if the whole Xbox thing blows up in their face in 10 years or so.
What? From all accounts, microsoft has won this console generation. Most games sold were on 360 and by a good margin. What makes you think they're in a weaker state than the company that sold less of its 3 month old console last month than the worst the 360 or PS3 has ever sold?
I don't really think that dalai is right, but I agree with him in spirit. I don't see Microsoft leaving the console business entirely (even if the Xbox Live Marketplace is pushing non-game shit more than gaming shit), because it continues to be easier to sell a gaming console to ravenous gamers than a multimedia center like Roku or whatever. However, I think Microsoft is the mostly likely to completely fuck up their transition from this generation to the next one. Nottle partially touched on why:
But really though, you are right, Sony is capable of making something incredibly ambitious like Little Big Planet. There are dozens of other PS3 games I adore. Do we know what exclusives Microsoft has? Halo, Forza, Fable and Gears? I like Halo and Gears,
but I feel like Microsoft has no real reason to be on top other than making a decent online community early on. If we are talking about making innovative games, I don't think Microsoft has you covered.
I frankly think that Microsoft pretty much blundered their way to first place this console generation. Maybe it's like that every generation. But the 360 did well because it got out ahead of the competition, and when the competition did come out, they managed to make some boneheaded decisions.
Nintendo courted an entirely different market than the usual with the Wii, and got even less multiplatform games than the Gamecube and N64 because even if the dev is willing to downgrade all the visuals, there often were enough buttons on the controller. Nintendo also wildly underestimated how relevant online multiplayer is to every non-Japanese market in the world. Nintendo got those casual bucks while they lasted, but those never last forever (unless you're Angry Birds?), and once the casual bucks dried up (2009/2010?) everything about the Wii was already antithetical to what existing/traditional gamers expect from a system. The second the casual market dropped out, the Wii was in trouble because they didn't really have the traditional gamer market at all; in today's market, it's nearly impossible to keep both.
Sony, on the other hand, coming out of the reign of the PS1 and PS2, had the hubris to think they could price their system very high and still maintain consumer interest, because the PS3 had better specs (in some respects) and clearly people just love the Playstation that much. It was a gamble that just didn't work out, especially when there were even fewer platform exclusives this generation than ever, and most of them looked the same or worse on PS3, due to initial difficulties with its different processor architecture. Their online was a decent start, but having barely tested the waters on the PS2, they hadn't learned many of the lessons that Microsoft already knew from the original Xbox. Between pricing and having few differences from the 360 (and less featured online), the PS3 didn't do as well as the 360.
Microsoft just lucked out, and happened to be the only console to put together a passable online community/multiplayer system that has been sluggish to improve (it's certainly no Steam), and by releasing early at a reasonable price, they had a huge install base compared to the PS3. And because being able to play online with your friends matters, it means every multiplayer game is nearly dead on PS3 relative to 360, because so many people got 360s early on and they want to play with their friends. Nintendo and Sony fucked up so bad that people still accept the 360 despite the fact that Microsoft is a bunch of greedy fuckers that still charge a yearly fee for basic online features AND their new UI constantly assaults you with ads and barely even tries to show you games anymore.
My thinking is that the Microsoft of 2013 is comparable to the Sony of 2006. They know they're the hottest shit around. They could have the same hubris that Sony had, where they think people will buy their console no matter what, just because it's the next Xbox. If anyone is going to do something fucking insane like make a console that effectively won't play used or second-hand games, or charge even more for basic fucking online multiplayer, or subsidize their console in such a way that you actually pay considerably more for it than if you just bought the console by itself, or something unimaginably cocky that I can't even think of, it's Microsoft. They'd be the ones to think they have the brand loyalty to get away with it. Maybe they do, maybe they don't.
They don't really have much in the games department, and one way they've kept ahead of Sony is by just throwing money at people to get timed exclusivity. But if theirs is suddenly the bullshit console that has either some retarded price or horrible inconvenience, and presumably the PS4 plays 99% of the same games just as well and isn't a huge drag, a lot of people will get the PS4 instead. It's really not going to make up the difference that Microsoft gets timed exclusivity on DLC map packs, and downloadable games, because those are small potatoes compared to the retail games that come out same-day everywhere. Halo and Gears will sell a lot, but Fable and Forza aren't in quite the same tier. They won't be enough to put Microsoft's console ahead, anymore than MGS4 or Gran Turismo 5 did for the PS3.
I don't know if Microsoft is arrogant enough to do something really crazy, but I really hope they are, just to see the chaos that ensues when they announce whatever it is.
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