It fun to "though experiment" out what could happen; but you have to make some logical leaps with this one. But, here is my take as to how teh last few years would have gone.
Let's assume that after Saturn were released, Saga woke up to some facts and worked to fix them rapidly as possible. First, they secured more fincianal liquidity by selling off some divisions and securing loans for the future. Basically put themselves on solid footing for Dreamcast. With a more secure financial footing when Dreamcast launches they likely could have been a sold 2nd place in the PS2 era. They likely also would have given Xbox so little space to breath in Japan, that Xbox would have been an even larger flop in Japan...Microsoft might not even have attempted a Japanese division. Second, Sega should have kept Bernie Stolar for the whole time Dreamcast was out and taken some of his advice would giving Sega American more autonomy. I don't think log term, after Dreamcast #1 he woudl have been needed, but they needed to have his dynamism in teh US for Sega to suck all teh potential out of Dreamcast in North America.
I think if Dreamcast had been around for ist full 5 years Sega arcade division woudl have made more games based on teh hardware. Arcades in North American and Europe still woudl have been in decline, but Sega could have had a few more arcade to console conversions and that woudl have boosted their game library. My guess if a strong Sega woudl not have really made PS2 less or a success, but it woudl have crippled Xbox even more because Sega would have wooed more 3rd parties and take more oxygen from Microsoft's fire. I think GameCube might have also taken a hit, but not as much as Xbox...heck Sega, Sony and Nintendo might have actually made the Japanese market stronger making Sega being around a net gain for them all. For sure, all the games Xbox had from Konami, Capcom, Koie, Atlus, Namco, Bandai, Kemco, Tecmo, Sammy and Sega would not have existed or Xbox might have gotten the 4rd best port. A stronger Sega might have meant the EA would not have withheld games, and that whole issue woudl never have existed.
Going forward after that I easily see Dreamcast having been profitable, if not wildly so, for Sega. They would likely have had a few more arcades machines based on Dreamcast hardware and a have sold enough Dreamcast to make a Dreamcast 2 certain. With that said I think Microsoft still would have put out a Xbox 360 but once again even the anemic support MS was getting for Japan would have been non-existent in teh 360 era. Make no mistake despite how anemic teh sales were of 360 in Asia just they fact it existed mattered to fanboys in North America and Europe. I think pundits and game critics would have had a major fear for 360 that no Japanese support was a huge problem.... how well ANY console can do without support for Japan was a big question in the early 2000s - psychologically it was key.
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