Nintendo can't make a relevant system to save their damn lives recently, so I'd say they're going out soon. Maybe not completely, but I doubt we will be seeing new hardware from them in the long run. I think the industry has just moved on to other things. Games wise, there will always be a new Zelda and a Mario game for as long as people keep buying them.
The Ouya looks like it's dead in the water. I doubt it will be able to keep up with the other brand/systems that have been around for over a decade now.
Sony messed up bad with the Vita, but they seem to be doubling down on the PS4 - focusing on the core gamers and trying to correct what they've gotten wrong on the PS3. We'll just have to see how that works out.
Microsoft seems to be doing the exact opposite with the new Xbox as Sony is doing with the PS4 - Microsoft wants the next Xbox to be a multimedia machine (the "Box" in the living room, like they've always wanted) and they are progressively moving away from the core gamers and moving towards everything else that they can monetize and make money off of. This shift is evidenced by the current push on the 360 to put an emphasis on ads, music, movies, and everything else besides games. IMO, this is going to push a lot of people away.
Surely if we had the evidence to say that at least one console manufacturer is going to get knocked out, then we'd already have the evidence for which console manufacturer that's going to be. I don't think it's a safe assumption that anybody is going to leave the race this time round, but I could see the Ouya falling, and I guess there's an outside chance Nintendo might fall.
Next-gen? None of them, not even Sega just suddenly disappeared, it was only after numerous large scale failures. It's going to take a lot more than one, slightly under performing console that still turns a profit to get rid of Nintendo and even although Sony is struggling, the Playstation department is doing very well.
At a guess, I could see Microsoft throwing in the towel, but brand recognition and a place in the living room seems more important to them than actually making money from the Xbox.
The Ouya, I assume is there as a joke, it's never going to make any kind of large scale impact or even begin to compete with the big three. It's just a jumbo Android phone for those who want to emulate SNES games.
I honestly can't imagine another home console from Nintendo. The Wii U was just released and it is already a fading memory. The thing is going to be woefully underpowered a couple of years from now and it doesn't have the same gimmick that the Wii had to keep it somewhat relevant.
@demoskinos: They're crapping on the VIta with the 3DS, though. Even if the WiiU becomes some sort of monumental failure (and it would have to be worse than the Gamecube, which they survived), wouldn't it make sense for them to keep the handheld division going?
How about "no one"? Every single generation there has been the same topic and people doomsaying left and right. "Many are saying" What "many"? Your friendly neighborhood soothsayer? You will find this "many" proclaiming any thing you want on the internet including but not limited to the claim that people are being tinned in underground factories to get rid of overpopulation.
Lol Ouya. I hope it's Nintendo. Their hardware is never interesting and the only reason people buy them is to play the first party games and maybe one or two third party games. I would rather them just be putting out Nintendo games on everything. Plus that would bring me one step closer to seeing my dream of a Pokemon MMO on PC.
@mirado: Thats the interesting question though. Kids now days are drawn to iPads and Tablets. Not saying that everyone who has a 3DS is a child but obviously its a large percentage of the market. They might keep it going but I'm not sure if we even get another generation of hand helds the way the mobile market is now.
I seriously doubt the Ouya is going to offer any sort of competition to anybody, the market for playing smartphone and tablet games on your TV from the OS that is not leading in the smartphone and tablet games department seems very small. If this device had the iOS library, maybe this would make more sense, but I still think the market for playing quality smartphone and tablet games on your TV is pretty small.
If anything is going to happen to Nintendo, they'll stop making living room boxes and just do handhelds from now on. Maybe if things really go sour they'll only release them in Japan where they sell like crazy anyway.
If anything happens to Sony, it will be a result of the rest of the company going down, not their games division. They beat Microsoft everywhere but North America during this gen despite the lackluster first two years after launch and worse online features and they currently seem to be interested in getting things back to the way they were during the PS2 era. Even if all of the features of the new console don't exactly pan out or nobody wants to use them, the new platform seems to be both powerful and easy to develop for.
If Microsoft's going to be the one to leave, it will be because all of the rumors we've heard about the new Xbox requiring an always on internet connection and blocking used games are true. If people just aren't willing to connect their consoles to the internet, they lose something like 40% of current owners right off the bat. If on top of that the console doesn't play used games, GameStop wouldn't stock it or the games and it would basically be suicide. Even if it just means that every single game requires a $10 "used game pass" payable directly to Microsoft I still think they'd crash and burn based on how much GameStop would hate them. I seriously doubt Microsoft is going to go so hard in that direction though, I can't believe they wouldn't realize what kind of shit they'd put themselves in if they blocked used games.
I don't think the OUYA is on the same level as Sony and MS next-gen offerings. I'd make the argument that "next-gen" Nintendo hardware isn't on the same level as other new consoles.
That said, it would be really interesting to see Sony or MS topple and pull out of the console hardware market.