Bash it all you will, but Gears of War was a massive sucess that helped the 360 along with Halo. I sort of see Gears of War 1 as the 360s Halo CE (except not a launch title). I'm pretty sure MS is working on at least a couple new IP's and whatever sticks will see a couple of sequels during the lifetime of the next xbox. Much like Halo and Gears of War.
Another thing that might come up is the "next big third party game". Whichever console launches first and has the big new multiplatform game (ex. Call of Duty 2 in 2005) might end up with the larger player base because they had the experience first on x console instead of the other. If your mind is blown by pretty graphics or whatever you'll get the console and recommend it to your friends.
Also, knowing the existing relationship between the xbox and Call of Duty (having the DLC first every time) I'm sure MS is doing whatever they can to get that Call of Duty money to continue onto the next generation.
So in short, MS (and this applies to Sony as well) has to hit 4 things to get players on board:
- Get that new IP out there and make it a thing
- Launch first with the big, good looking, multiplatform game
- Get that Call of Duty playerbase (it's still the biggest out there at the moment)
- Continue the old IP's that people know and love
These aren't absolutes, because there's a million things out there about the consoles that can change or make these points moot. I'm no analyst, but at least for me those are the things that seem to matter.
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