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#1 Edited by Jams (2962 posts) -

http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/11/world/asia/south-korea-military-exercises/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

So I guess this means that they're that much closer to starting another war? That means they got rid of the truce they've had right and it's basically, "fuck you, we fight now"?

(CNN) -- Saber rattling rose to new levels Monday on the Korean Peninsula as Pyongyang officials "scrapped" the armistice credited for nearly 60 years of uneasy peace and then failed to answer a hotline phone.

Credit CNN
#2 Posted by Winternet (8025 posts) -

Never failing to answer the phone lead to such drastic consequences.

#3 Posted by Animasta (14711 posts) -

@jams: nope, that'd be suicide considering even China isn't supporting NK on this one.

#4 Posted by Ravenlight (8040 posts) -

Could be that the necessary infrastructure to support a hotline phone has collapsed with the rest of the country.

#5 Posted by McGhee (6094 posts) -

Dear god, we must protect the girl groups at all costs.

#6 Posted by Jams (2962 posts) -

@animasta said:

@jams: nope, that'd be suicide considering even China isn't supporting NK on this one.

North Korea knows China don't care. You can thank Drew for that.

#7 Edited by Alexander (1721 posts) -

And this is why Red Dawn had to be remade, to remind us all of the imminent Chinese North Korean threat.

#8 Edited by OfficeGamer (1087 posts) -

Homefront was right all along... Should've bought that game.

Nah

#9 Posted by EquitasInvictus (2035 posts) -

Hotline phone? I'm sure they're too busy gold farming to be worried about trivial, primitive things such as that!

#10 Edited by oldenglishC (970 posts) -

You had one job, Dennis Rodman.

On a positive note, this could mean less terrible soap opera things cluttering up Netflix.

#11 Edited by mtcantor (948 posts) -

NK aint starting shit. More posturing.

#12 Edited by Sploder (917 posts) -

KJ Un is frontin'

#13 Posted by TooWalrus (13232 posts) -

The CNN article makes refrence to the UNSC. I didn't realize that was a real initialism for something until just now. "United Nations Security Council." Huh.

#14 Edited by Jams (2962 posts) -

@mtcantor said:

NK aint starting shit. More posturing.

Isn't throwing away a truce more than posturing?

#15 Edited by ModernAlkemie (367 posts) -

But we sent them Dennis Rodman! How is North Korea still a problem after a personal visit from the world's greatest diplomat?

#16 Edited by mtcantor (948 posts) -

@jams said:

@mtcantor said:

NK aint starting shit. More posturing.

Isn't throwing away a truce more than posturing?

Call me when they start shooting. Until then, it's posturing.

#17 Posted by Jams (2962 posts) -

@mtcantor said:

@jams said:

@mtcantor said:

NK aint starting shit. More posturing.

Isn't throwing away a truce more than posturing?

Call me when they start shooting. Until then, it's posturing.

OH NO THEY STARTED SHOOTING BUT YOU NEVER GAVE ME YOUR PHONE NUMBER! THEY'RE COMING AFTER YOU! AHHHHH

#18 Posted by mtcantor (948 posts) -

@jams said:

@mtcantor said:

@jams said:

@mtcantor said:

NK aint starting shit. More posturing.

Isn't throwing away a truce more than posturing?

Call me when they start shooting. Until then, it's posturing.

OH NO THEY STARTED SHOOTING BUT YOU NEVER GAVE ME YOUR PHONE NUMBER! THEY'RE COMING AFTER YOU! AHHHHH

Well shit.

#19 Edited by Nivash (241 posts) -

North Korea isn't going to start a war unless they are really, really desperate for some reason - and not even mass starvation appears to have had an effect in that area - or through some sort of incident in which a North Korean unit either starts a war by accident or by going rogue. Why? Because that would be suicide. North Korea can't win a war with South Korea; let alone a war with South Korea and its NATO allies. It is almost guaranteed that the war would end with North Korea ceasing to be a an entity militarily of politically.

Don't get me wrong: a war wouldn't be a curb stomp. It would be horrifyingly bloody with hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of casualties guaranteed. Most would be on the NK side of the fence but enough South Koreans would die to for it to be a deterrence. Seoul itself is of great worry - the city is located a mere 45 kilometers from the DMZ, with outskirts even closer, and are well within range of NK early strike capabilities This is the reason a war on the Korean peninsula would be a nightmare. Everything is bunched so close together. If NK wants to send its ageing air force on a one-way trip to the capitol it would be extremely difficult to stop them. There are even conventional NK artillery that right now, as I write this, are in range of the city from NK's side of the DMZ.

So no, it probably won't escalate to war this time either. Everyone has too much to lose. But when people talk about how we should just take out NK and its cold-war era military once and for all - or claim that Iran should just do as NK and go nuclear since that evidently works - they are clearly not aware why war simply isn't an option and why the possible nuclear weapons NK might possess is not even the biggest factor for that. As far as WMDs go, chemical and biological weapons are a far greater concern - and we are pretty much certain that the country has lots and lots of those.

#20 Posted by casper_ (906 posts) -

i think this is getting relatively serious considering that NK is becoming more and more desperate/isolated which could lead them digging a hole so deep that they don't really have a choice but to do something drastic (like japan pre WWII)

best case scenario it could be kim jong-un trying to pressure the west into recognizing his state diplomatically i guess.

#21 Posted by Bourbon_Warrior (4523 posts) -

What did Dennis Rodman and the Harlem Globetrotters do to make him so angry?

#22 Posted by Jams (2962 posts) -

@nivash said:

North Korea isn't going to start a war unless they are really, really desperate for some reason - and not even mass starvation appears to have had an effect in that area - or through some sort of incident in which a North Korean unit either starts a war by accident or by going rogue. Why? Because that would be suicide. North Korea can't win a war with South Korea; let alone a war with South Korea and its NATO allies. It is almost guaranteed that the war would end with North Korea ceasing to be a an entity militarily of politically.

Don't get me wrong: a war wouldn't be a curb stomp. It would be horrifyingly bloody with hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of casualties guaranteed. Most would be on the NK side of the fence but enough South Koreans would die to for it to be a deterrence. Seoul itself is of great worry - the city is located a mere 45 kilometers from the DMZ, with outskirts even closer, and are well within range of NK early strike capabilities This is the reason a war on the Korean peninsula would be a nightmare. Everything is bunched so close together. If NK wants to send its ageing air force on a one-way trip to the capitol it would be extremely difficult to stop them. There are even conventional NK artillery that right now, as I write this, are in range of the city from NK's side of the DMZ.

So no, it probably won't escalate to war this time either. Everyone has too much to lose. But when people talk about how we should just take out NK and its cold-war era military once and for all - or claim that Iran should just do as NK and go nuclear since that evidently works - they are clearly not aware why war simply isn't an option and why the possible nuclear weapons NK might possess is not even the biggest factor for that. As far as WMDs go, chemical and biological weapons are a far greater concern - and we are pretty much certain that the country has lots and lots of those.

Although I hope you're right, you're forgetting that when thinking what NK might do you probably have to use your crazy brain to do so. What you described was what seemed like the thought process of someone that isn't batshit insane. We don't know if Kimmy U is a crazy bastard or not. All signs seem to point to bad decision after bad decision.

I hope you're right though and they know it's a bad idea.

#23 Posted by President_Barackbar (3467 posts) -

The CNN article makes refrence to the UNSC. I didn't realize that was a real initialism for something until just now. "United Nations Security Council." Huh.

Then you will no doubt find this hilarious!

#24 Posted by paulwade1984 (478 posts) -

@toowalrus said:

The CNN article makes refrence to the UNSC. I didn't realize that was a real initialism for something until just now. "United Nations Security Council." Huh.

Then you will no doubt find this hilarious!

Yeah. Some poor intern got a real bollocking that day.

#25 Edited by Nivash (241 posts) -

@jams: It's questionably whether or not NK really are that crazy. Sure, from our point of view they act crazy with all their hyper-aggressive posturing and silly propaganda videos. But from the NK perspective it's not that crazy at all. Posturing gets results: they know that SK and the US don't want war, so every time they act like a three-year old and throw a tantrum, everyone else folds and gives in. This is essentially how they earned their deals about food aid. And the progapanda videos aren't aimed at us, but at their populace, which largely lacks the information required to disprove that, say, the US is both evil incarnate but also terrified of NK military prowess and the success of NK society. For all the regular NK citizen knows, we are the crazy ones. We are essentially Orcs - to be feared to an extent, yes, but also to be loathed.

But above all there's the fact that the NK ruling elite are not the same as the brainwashed masses. For instance, many are educated abroad - Kim Jong Un himself attended school in Switzerland and may have lived there for close to ten years. Apparently class mates describe him as a well integrated, decent student, interested in and pretty good at basketball (by Swiss standards), if a little shy and awkward around girls. And while little is really known about the exactly how the NK ruling structure works Kim Jong-Un isn't really a pure dictator. His rise to power was predicated on him having the support of NK's more important military figures, generals in particular, and it's not entirely clear just what level of control Jong-Un personally has.

The only thing this cadre is interested in is retaining control. They have to be good at this too - if they actually were crazy there's no way that the country would have managed to stay this stable during crisis after crisis for more than half a century. No, they aren't crazy. They're playing us. We know it, they know that we know it, but for the time being it's cheaper to just to give them the damn rice they will eventually be asking for than upset the status quo. Even when they don't come with some demands their saber rattling seems to mostly be about not getting forgotten than anything else. NK has a very fragile public ego and needs attention from time to time, but once they've had their fill they usually quiet down.

My money is that this is precisely what will happen sometime in the coming weeks or months after which everything dies down again for some time.

@president_barackbar You have to admit though, if the real UNSC would find itself in need of an emblem some day the Halo version would probably do pretty well.

#26 Edited by MooseyMcMan (11272 posts) -

North Korea can't be that dumb, right? Right? They wouldn't start another war. Right?

I bet they back down. I hope they back down.

Moderator Online
#27 Edited by RenegadeDoppelganger (413 posts) -

Wasn't there another thread about this?

NK is the only country on the Asian peninsula sitting between China and a host of US influenced/backed eastern countries. It's not just SK and Japan, it's most of Southeast Asia not to mention of a bunch of neatly tied up oil contracts in the middle east. China will only tolerate NK's dick-waiving up to a point. That point would be drawing the US into a conflict which edges them and their allies even closer to China's borders. In any combat scenario NK goes down hard but not before they take a massive number of US-military and SK civvies with them due to artillery strikes on the DMZ and a capital city.

First of all NK's nuclear capabilities are drastically exaggerated and mostly unproven. The difference between having a few successful nuclear tests and effective nuclear launch capability is miles apart.

NK won't make the first move because their dream is 're-unification' which basically means conquering all of Korea but all they are really capable of is a first strike. Nuclear weapons aside, they've got an insane amount of artillery pointed directly at Seoul but wiping out a majority of the civilian populace in one city doesn't really gain them anything except the ire of the entire globe and carte blanche for the US to glass Pyongyang or at the very least, send in the air force for a turkey shoot of epic proportions.

Sure NK could mobilize its ground forces but would be akin to the Russians during World War II. Send wave after wave of poorly equipped, technologically outmatched forces at an entrenched and well supplied enemy, sustain immense casualties, all while your population starves. This time around though we have 24/7 news networks covering it all and word travels fast what an asshole you are. They have some beautiful T-54s and T-62s which would be more at home in a museum than on the battlefield. The last time anyone took those babies for a drive, I believe it was a little romp along a highway in kuwait that didnt really end up so well.

Air is much the same story. Overwhelming numbers but we're talking rookie pilots flying mig-17s, 19s, and 23s, these might as well be Bi-Planes versus modern AA, radar, guided missiles and warplanes several generations more advanced with pilots who have actually seen real combat. Pyongyang in particular is positively bristling with soviet-era AA much like Baghdad in the 1990s, and we all remember how that went. Spray and pray.

Not gonna happen.

#28 Posted by Morbid_Coffee (955 posts) -

I would consider North Korea a threat if they weren't perpetually stuck in the 1940's

#29 Posted by ArbitraryWater (11902 posts) -

This is North Korea we're talking about. Nothing will actually happen. If anything did happen, there wouldn't be a North Korea for very long.

#30 Posted by Fredchuckdave (5691 posts) -

@renegadedoppelganger: Interesting enough post but way too many presumptions.

Conversely what if NK waited about 25 years when China's GDP eclipses the US' and their military is more or less on par with ours (not there yet but 25 years with inexhaustible funding) but substantially more numerous and with a controlled press; tensions will definitely rise between China and the US regardless and there will be "Saber-rattling" at the very least over Taiwan, not to mention owing them trillions. It's not like anyone else can do much to deter China at that point.

#31 Edited by Nivash (241 posts) -

@renegadedoppelganger: Yeah, the NK air force is a complete joke by conventional metrics. About half of their inventory is expected to be too worn down to be flyable. The majority of the rest is ancient, manned by inexperienced pilots (due to fuel shortages) who don't even get enough to eat: fighter pilot rations in 2000 was about 900 calories a day on flight-days, less than that when grounded - the average required daily intake in the west is upwards of 2500 calories. Their most modern aircraft, the treasured 30 or so MiG-29s they have guarding Pyongyang's airspace, wouldn't last minutes against a concerted SK/US attack.

Their air force have only two realistic uses:

1) Sending anything with wings on a suicide attack either on Seoul or potential military targets. They would most likely reach their targets if they launch early enough in the conflict (which they obviously will) simply thanks to the general pandemonium and the short distances involved. They could most likely inflict some serious damage before being shot down since we are most likely talking about a few hundred aircraft.

2) Depositing NK special forces all over SK to wreak havoc behind enemy lines. NK has a ludicrously large amount of special forces personnel: roughly 180,000 which is probably the largest number in the world. These are not the modern type of special forces like Delta Force or the Spetznas, mind you, what with their supreme training and high-tech equipment, but rather WW2-type commandos trained to operate and survive independently behind enemy lines to disrupt enemy supply lines, staging grounds and generally terrorize the area.

Funny you should mention bi-planes: North Korea several hundred of those in store for its commandos. Namely, the An-2:

The An-2 has civilian uses as a crop-duster, among other things. The NK air force uses it to transport commandos thanks to its ability to silently at low altitudes at low speeds. While the fleet has been grounded in recent years due to fuel shortages, they are most likely still operational in large numbers.

@fredchuckdave: China has absolutely no interest in a war on the Korean peninsula. Above all because of one thing: refugees. China is frustrated as it is with thousands of North Koreans taking the trip across the border every year. A war in Korea would most likely balloon that number to the hundreds of thousands, maybe more.

China "supports" (more like turns a blind eye to, most of the time) North Korea because of one part principle and two parts the reluctance of having a unified, US-aligned Korea on its doorstep. This does not extend to the point of supporting NK militarily in a lost cause, neither today nor in 25 years.

Also, in 25 years China may be stronger but NK is going to be much weaker compared to SK if it still exists. They have languished for the last 20 years since the fall of the USSR and have shown no indications of having any industrial potential left. Their military is getting more worn down and obsolete, their GDP show no sign of improvement - in the last three years alone, two registered a negative growth rate. Assuming a similar geopolitical situation as today, China getting involved in an even more lost cause then would be impossibly stupid.

#32 Edited by Alekss (327 posts) -

I have a remote controled helicopter. Can I join the possible war?

#33 Edited by Pr1mus (3949 posts) -

Getting ready for some real life Mercenaries over here. That game was so great.

#34 Posted by ArtisanBreads (3880 posts) -

@pr1mus said:

Getting ready for some real life Mercenaries over here. That game was so great.

Time to bust out my deck of cards.

(Yes it was a badass fucking game)

#35 Posted by Canteu (2821 posts) -

It would be the same war, since armistice isn't the end of a war.

#36 Edited by Digiwth (152 posts) -

They're just posturing themselves to try and get a better deal of things.

It's not working very well, though. Their plan to try and coerce the world is putting them in an even worse position.

#37 Edited by Sooty (8082 posts) -

North Korea wouldn't fucking dare, I refuse to believe they are dumb enough to attack Seoul as it would mean the United States + Allied forces (UK highly likely) retaliating including South Korea, and China will turn their backs on them too.

#38 Posted by MariachiMacabre (7099 posts) -

@sooty said:

North Korea wouldn't fucking dare, I refuse to believe they are dumb enough to attack Seoul as it would mean the United States + Allied forces retaliating including South Korea and China will turn their backs on them too.

I don't know. They've been spreading the lies about their military prowess to their citizens for so long...maybe they have started to believe it themselves? I hope I'm wrong but I'm of the opinion that it's only a matter of time before this boils over.

#39 Edited by Sooty (8082 posts) -

@mariachimacabre said:

@sooty said:

North Korea wouldn't fucking dare, I refuse to believe they are dumb enough to attack Seoul as it would mean the United States + Allied forces retaliating including South Korea and China will turn their backs on them too.

I don't know. They've been spreading the lies about their military prowess to their citizens for so long...maybe they have started to believe it themselves? I hope I'm wrong but I'm of the opinion that it's only a matter of time before this boils over.

I think the best thing to do is to negotiate with China and move pre-emptively against the North, the only reason that hasn't happened yet is because China still backs them.

damn commies

#40 Posted by MariachiMacabre (7099 posts) -

@sooty said:

@mariachimacabre said:

@sooty said:

North Korea wouldn't fucking dare, I refuse to believe they are dumb enough to attack Seoul as it would mean the United States + Allied forces retaliating including South Korea and China will turn their backs on them too.

I don't know. They've been spreading the lies about their military prowess to their citizens for so long...maybe they have started to believe it themselves? I hope I'm wrong but I'm of the opinion that it's only a matter of time before this boils over.

I think the best thing to do is to negotiate with China and move pre-emptively against the North, the only reason that hasn't happened yet is because China still backs them.

damn commies

Absolutely. The easiest way to deflate Kim Jong-un's ego would be to take China out of the equation. If that were to happen, I could see them backing down. Or they may go ballistic and attack SK on the spot. Who fucking knows with these crazies anymore.

#41 Posted by c0l0nelp0c0rn1 (1809 posts) -

If Drew Scanlon and Dennis Rodman can't appease them, then nothing else can.

#42 Posted by DonutFever (3553 posts) -

The godking Kim Jong-un will fight all opposing armies himself, unarmed.

#43 Posted by Ravenlight (8040 posts) -

Homefront was right all along... Should've bought that game.

Nah

Don't fuck around, duder. I've killed men for saying Homefront was worth anything.

#44 Edited by Dalai (7040 posts) -

This oddly coincides with the launch of Starcraft II: Heart of the Swarm.

Sneaky move, North Koreans.

#45 Edited by Dagbiker (6978 posts) -

This is all just a move from North Korea to get rid of sanctions. The problem is, sanctions don't hurt anyone but the citizens, and part of the reason we put sanctions on citizens, or put embargo's on country's such as Cuba, is the idea that people will eventually rise up.

Someone just needs to call his bluff, the problem is, are we willing to risk human lives to do so.

#46 Posted by Sooty (8082 posts) -

@dagbiker said:

Someone just needs to call his bluff, the problem is, are we willing to risk human lives to do so.

and that is where I think this situation is incredibly cruel on South Koreans, China have no right to stand in the way when South Korea are repeatedly being threatened with mass destruction.

#47 Posted by Sanity (1937 posts) -

The thing i always wonder is if NK invaded SK what would happen when the soldiers fine out its not actually a wasteland were there brothers are treated like dogs and all that other shit they tell them about the south.

#48 Edited by ArtelinaRose (1856 posts) -

@dudy80 said:

The thing i always wonder is if NK invaded SK what would happen when the soldiers fine out its not actually a wasteland were there brothers are treated like dogs and all that other shit they tell them about the south.

They'd probably assume it was just SK propaganda. A fake SK putting on airs to confuse the glorious people's republic into stopping their holy crusade.

Seriously, these people are crazy.

#49 Posted by HerbieBug (4212 posts) -

This is North Korea we're talking about. Nothing will actually happen. If anything did happen, there wouldn't be a North Korea for very long.

Small, vastly outmatched countries with idiot leadership have been picking fights they cannot possibly win for millennia. It just takes the right circumstance and a guy in charge who is the right kind of crazy and has just the right mix of unchecked political control. The situation in Korea has been dry wood and kindling waiting for a spark for quite some time now. Make no mistake about it, things over there could get real bad real fast with very little additional provocation.

#50 Edited by Danteveli (1191 posts) -

@dudy80 said:

The thing i always wonder is if NK invaded SK what would happen when the soldiers fine out its not actually a wasteland were there brothers are treated like dogs and all that other shit they tell them about the south.

They'd probably assume it was just SK propaganda. A fake SK putting on airs to confuse the glorious people's republic into stopping their holy crusade.

Seriously, these people are

crazy.

If someone is shooting at you there is not much time to think about propaganda. Plus they are just as crazy as the rest of the world.