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#1 Edited by soundsword (17 posts) -

Most of their threats have been bluffs, but I don't think they're kidding this time.

If China gets involved then it can be WWIII, but I doubt they will help them nowadays.

You see that's why the U.S lost the Korean War back in 1953, it was because China helped them.

I think this real, what do you think?

#2 Edited by jdh5153 (1034 posts) -

Bunch of talk if you ask me. Besides even if they wanted to I'm quite sure they're being watched very closely 24/7 and we could stop them before they got very far.

#3 Edited by soundsword (17 posts) -

@jdh5153 said:

Bunch of talk if you ask me. Besides even if they wanted to I'm quite sure they're being watched very closely 24/7 and we could stop them before they got very far.

they can strike Seoul in a matter of seconds.

Nothing could stop it because of it's location.

#4 Posted by BeachThunder (12403 posts) -

Don't worry, Drew will sort it out.

#5 Posted by Demoskinos (15133 posts) -

Yeah, no.

#6 Edited by Nivash (241 posts) -

North Korea is in no position to "launch" any nukes. The few they possible have are too large to fit on missiles. So possibly dropped over South Korea, but hardly "launched".

I also seriously doubt they're going to make good on the threats. They have nothing to gain and literally everything to lose. What this most likely is about is the new Kim needing to assert himself and gain the respect of the North Korean top brass - he's been having trouble in this area because of his youth. Ratcheting up the rhetoric is his way of showing off as a dependable leader rather than a controllable child.

As for China getting involved... I don't think they are willing to take that risk. China likes their current relationship with the US and that would obviously disintegrate if they go to war with them, which they would have to in order to support North Korea. Not to mention the risks of such a military enterprise.

And by the way, the US (more correctly the UN) didn't "lose" the Korean War. It was fought to a standstill. The UN strategic objective of preserving South Korea was achieved.

#7 Edited by TooWalrus (13256 posts) -

One of my professors mentioned that even China is starting to disassociate themselves with North Korea. If that's true and they attack someone, they'll be wiped off the map and nobody's going to shed a tear. Feel bad for the civilians who are going to get caught in the crossfire, but there's honestly not much we can do- invading a country with nuclear weapons is too risky.

#8 Posted by OfficeGamer (1087 posts) -

War is always going to happen, sooner or later, so let's not pretend that this an avoidable evil. Based on that logic, I'm really happy that the war that will change the balance of power in the world, as a war does every few decades, is about to happen in my life time. I wanna see what the world will be like with the USA no longer the boss, just for the lolz.

#9 Edited by BabyChooChoo (4802 posts) -

Until something actually happens, I'm calling a bluff on everything they do. I refuse to believe anyone in power in North Korea thinks this will end well for them if they decide to go to war. They want to maintain that power and a legitimate act of war would pretty much lead to them being forced out of power due to the repercussions.

#10 Posted by Canteu (2821 posts) -

If N.Korea does actually act upon any of their threats, there will not be a N.Korea within about 6 months.

China will not back them. S.Korea will take a beating, but they will still stand thanks to the U.N.

I just hope the civilians get the asylum they will need.

#11 Edited by No0b0rAmA (1478 posts) -

What would they gain by telling the world that they're in a state of war if they were to actually start military action? This shit has been going on for 60 years, and it's significantly less provocative than what was going on in the 60s to the 80s.

#12 Posted by The_Laughing_Man (13629 posts) -

@canteu said:

If N.Korea does actually act upon any of their threats, there will not be a N.Korea within about 6 months.

China will not back them. S.Korea will take a beating, but they will still stand thanks to the U.N.

I just hope the civilians get the asylum they will need.

All of N Korea just needs to be removed and who ever is in charge of South Korea needs to be put in charge. Because of how North was ruled they have slammed themselves into poverty and anguish.

North Korea is like a kid with a new toy thinking hes the shit. Its like trying to rob a bank with a water pistol when the bank guards are all robocop.

#13 Posted by jdh5153 (1034 posts) -

@canteu said:

If N.Korea does actually act upon any of their threats, there will not be a N.Korea within about 6 months.

China will not back them. S.Korea will take a beating, but they will still stand thanks to the U.N.

I just hope the civilians get the asylum they will need.

I wouldn't get that confident....People used to say the same thing about Afghanistan and Iraq... "Oh it'll be wiped off the map in a month...." 10 years later.........

#14 Posted by Funkydupe (3321 posts) -

The US has only 25% of China's population, if China did anything at all I'd be worried, but why would they bother to help something as puny and eccentric as North Korea in their struggle for attention?

#15 Posted by Nivash (241 posts) -

@jdh5153: In both of those cases they were wiped from the map in a matter of weeks. That the US decided to essentially occupy the countries for god-knows-why - best guess is neocon fantasies of creating permanent allies in restructuring the entire region - is another matter entirely.

This is not the case with North Korea. If war breaks out, South Korea will be in a much better position to create lasting peace since they are actually part of the same people as the North Koreans.

6 months is actually a pessimistic assessment of how long the war could last. It is well known that North Korea doesn't even have enough fuel to fight for 30 days. After that, any maneuvers would have to be done on foot - and this isn't the 19th century any more.

#16 Edited by MattyFTM (14432 posts) -

North Korea know that if they start a war, they'll lose. It'll be the entire world against them, basically. And that is why they will not start a war. They're not stupid.

Moderator
#17 Posted by FourWude (2245 posts) -

The only nation stupid enough and believes its own shit enough to launch nukes is the US.

Everyone else are just pretenders.

#18 Edited by TooWalrus (13256 posts) -

@mattyftm: I'm not sure they know that. This happens to dictators all the time, Saddam Hussein legitimately believed he could take on the US in a war. When your advisers have been feeding you bullshit for decades, eventually you start to believe it. I'd bet most of their army believes they're some kind of super power- or at least Kim does, and that's really all that matters.

#19 Posted by jdh5153 (1034 posts) -

@nivash said:

@jdh5153: In both of those cases they were wiped from the map in a matter of weeks. That the US decided to essentially occupy the countries for god-knows-why - best guess is neocon fantasies of creating permanent allies in restructuring the entire region - is another matter entirely.

This is not the case with North Korea. If war breaks out, South Korea will be in a much better position to create lasting peace since they are actually part of the same people as the North Koreans.

6 months is actually a pessimistic assessment of how long the war could last. It is well known that North Korea doesn't even have enough fuel to fight for 30 days. After that, any maneuvers would have to be done on foot - and this isn't the 19th century any more.

Wiped out? That why we still have people dying over there? Mission Accomplished I suppose.

#20 Posted by Nivash (241 posts) -

@jdh5153: Like I said: two different things. Both military campaigns were successful beyond even the most optimistic expectations. The failures were the occupations, which were of dubious usefulness anyway. In both cases the US could have been satisfied by neutralizing the Taliban and deposing Hussein, but they weren't, and instead attempted futile and poorly managed "nation building".

There is absolutely no need for this in Korea. If war breaks out, the US and other NATO combatants would have no need to stick around for years in the former North Korea. South Korea would handle that and, like I said, would be in a much better position to do so because, unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, they wouldn't be seen as conquerors from another continent worshiping different gods and speaking a foreign language.

North Koreans and South Koreans are the same people. They were part of the same nation less then 70 years ago - there are still people remembering growing up in a unified Korea. The unification would be much more Germany than Iraq.

#21 Posted by FancySoapsMan (5818 posts) -

If North Korea launches a nuke, no other country in the world would stand behind them.

They'd basically be committing suicide.

#22 Posted by Inkerman (1455 posts) -

Most of their threats have been bluffs, but I don't think they're kidding this time.

If China gets involved then it can be WWIII, but I doubt they will help them nowadays.

You see that's why the U.S lost the Korean War back in 1953, it was because China helped them.

I think this real, what do you think?

This isn't real. First of all, while North Korean missiles can reach Alaska, they can't reach Alaska and carry a warhead. The Koreans haven't yet been able to miniaturize their nuclear capability. Furthermore while they can get missiles in the air, they have no way of getting them back down again with any kind of accuracy. Second of all, behind all the "this is war" bullshit, there are key indicators that it isn't serious. The joint industrial complex at Kaesong, for example, is still open, meanwhile inside North Korea, reforms to the economic sector are underway (this is the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union that Pyonyang has had enough electricity). Most of the current rhetoric is directed domestically. While the new Kim is bringing in reforms, he needs to cover his ass with the military, so he steps up rhetoric and tests nukes to keep them happy, while undermining them in the long term with reforms.

The US has only 25% of China's population, if China did anything at all I'd be worried, but why would they bother to help something as puny and eccentric as North Korea in their struggle for attention?

China doesn't have anywhere near the military capability to take on the US. While they have a larger population and army, they are (obviously) technology way behind the US, and in terms of high tech industry, also very far behind. Here's the key about the Chinese military; while it has lots of soldiers, it has no way of moving them anywhere. China doesn't even have the heavy lift capacity to invade Taiwan. It could fuck it up with missiles, sure, but in terms of landing large amounts of troops it can't do squat. Even if they were supporting the North Koreans, they don't have the supply capabilities to maintain that support for long. Additionally, there's no way they'd support the Koreans (although it would be very interesting to see what happens as the CCP fights with itself over what to do), you'll remember they were actually co-sponsors of the resolution bringing in new sanctions against North Korea.

I'm not sure they know that. This happens to dictators all the time, Saddam Hussein legitimately believed he could take on the US in a war. When your advisers have been feeding you bullshit for decades, eventually you start to believe it. I'd bet most of their army believes they're some kind of super power- or at least Kim does, and that's really all that matters.

Actually, if you're referring to the First Gulf War, Saddam knew he couldn't take the US in a war, what he did believe was that he could kill enough American soldiers to deter an American intervention. He believed he could simulate another 'Vietnam Scenario' where while the US was militarily successful, the political cost would be too great to bother defending Kuwait. If you're referring to the 2003 Iraq War, Saddam, even up to the point of invasion, did not believe that the US was going to invade.

#23 Posted by Bollard (5836 posts) -

@soundsword: The only thing that has made me less worried about this situation is that China is increasingly backing away from them. I think they supported the UN when they were against the latest North Korean nuke tests? Without support NKR aren't gunna achieve shit.

#24 Edited by Hailinel (25205 posts) -

Most of their threats have been bluffs, but I don't think they're kidding this time.

If China gets involved then it can be WWIII, but I doubt they will help them nowadays.

You see that's why the U.S lost the Korean War back in 1953, it was because China helped them.

I think this real, what do you think?

If North Korea seriously launches a nuclear weapon, there's no way that China will bail them out of that one. Even their patience only goes so far and they've shown signs of exasperation with North Korea's antics over the past year.

#25 Edited by joshthebear (2700 posts) -

War. War never changes.

#26 Edited by Nivash (241 posts) -
#27 Edited by Pr1mus (3946 posts) -

Kim Jong Un is adorable when he's upset.

#28 Posted by amir90 (2178 posts) -

Don't worry, Drew will sort it out.

I have faith in Drew!

#29 Edited by Darji (5294 posts) -

Seriously that is all that is. New leader new pointless treats to show that no one should mess with him. Or maybe he just played too much Starcraft and now is in the mood for war. Who knows.

#30 Posted by Dagbiker (6978 posts) -

Most of their threats have been bluffs, but I don't think they're kidding this time.

If China gets involved then it can be WWIII, but I doubt they will help them nowadays.

You see that's why the U.S lost the Korean War back in 1953, it was because China helped them.

I think this real, what do you think?

Thats not why we lost the Korean War, its because China backed north Korea and we didnt want to fight China. It was more of a political reason then a man power reason.

Also, I doubt if North Korea attacks one of its major trading partners China would help them out. At least publicly. As much as we depend on China for our McDonalds toys, and mercury induced poisoned dog food, they depend on us for our money. If they cut us off from trade, they will cut billions of dollars from themselves, and also possibly get themselves into a war.

I doubt they will want to do that.

#31 Edited by I_Stay_Puft (3799 posts) -

Just drop an iphone 4s into North Korea and have Siri solve it.

#32 Edited by jacksmedulla (281 posts) -
#33 Posted by Sackmanjones (4761 posts) -

If it does happen, I seriously doubt China will back them.

#34 Edited by EnduranceFun (1109 posts) -

No it won't.

China is distancing itself from North Korea. It also lacks the nuclear capability to "launch a nuke" at the US. Their military is early 20th century, little to no technological development, if they did go to war they'd get destroyed in about a week.

#35 Edited by TruthTellah (9470 posts) -

@soundsword: Fortunately, I don't think you understand the dynamic right now at all, and there is very little likelihood North Korea will fire a nuclear weapon on anyone. They're an entire country built around a defensive posture. Nuclear weapons are there as a show of strength, but they know for a fact that they are completely and utterly outmatched when it comes to pure military might. Using a nuclear weapon would only serve to seal their fate as part of the past.

And China has no reason whatsoever to side with North Korea in an actual military conflict. This is neither the same North Korea or China that was involved in the Korean War, and it's certainly not the same Russia that it was. Russia and China have been pressuring North Korea more and more to end their provocations because they -know- they would end up supporting allied nations against North Korea in an instance where they restarted the war. There is extremely little chance that a North Korea conflict could cause WWIII, as the powerful alliances on North Korea's side simply aren't there. China is a purely economic ally; it would have almost nothing to gain from supporting them in a serious war. In fact, they would have significant things to lose from choosing the wrong side, as it would most-likely tank their export-based economy.

While it is possible current bluster may lead to some kind of military conflict, that's still a ways off. Past wars of words have escalated to the point of North Korea actually shooting at South Korea; in this latest spat, that still hasn't happened. And even if they did go that far again or even further, worries over some larger war are misguided. South Koreans are going on with their daily lives as normal, and I suggest we all do the same until we are given real reason for concern.

#36 Posted by alternate (2719 posts) -

Do you know why NK has had tanks and mobile rocket launchers parked on the border of the DMZ since the war ended? 'cause conservative estimates suggest they only have 30 days of fuel reserves. That along with a million man army that they can only afford to feed with the help of foreign aid. yeah, posturing. It is like when the cold war ended and they found out all those missile silos pointed at the US were rusted out and none functioning.

#37 Edited by Dacnomaniac (444 posts) -

@jdh5153: Afghanistan & Iraq also weren't completely isolated either.

#38 Posted by Sparky_Buzzsaw (6387 posts) -

I think (and hope) it's chest thumping by Kim Jong Un in an attempt to assert his military power. Still, though, it's a scary situation to contemplate.

Moderator
#39 Edited by Subjugation (4740 posts) -

North Korea is all talk and has been for decades. They are hardly a powerhouse country and couldn't survive any sustained conflict. Maybe they could do a quick hit-and-run and do some damage somewhere, but very quickly afterward they would be done. I mean done.

#40 Edited by MordeaniisChaos (5730 posts) -

Nopers. They don't have any launch capabilities. Or balls.

Plus, we'd probably know before it happened. If you don't think we have an eye and an ear where we need it, you're being silly.

North Korea lost it's bite a long time ago. And it hasn't had any real allies in a while either.

If anything does happen, I just hope they wait till I join the Corps. It'd be fun to see a bit of Asia while we're kicking that short fucker's ass. But it's not going to happen. If any sort of nuclear attack occurs, it'll be against a very insignificant target, which means the significant ones will come bearing down on North Korea with a fury and a quickness.

War is always going to happen, sooner or later, so let's not pretend that this an avoidable evil. Based on that logic, I'm really happy that the war that will change the balance of power in the world, as a war does every few decades, is about to happen in my life time. I wanna see what the world will be like with the USA no longer the boss, just for the lolz.

That's not a very good troll.

#41 Edited by GetEveryone (4458 posts) -

@jdh5153 said:

@canteu said:

If N.Korea does actually act upon any of their threats, there will not be a N.Korea within about 6 months.

China will not back them. S.Korea will take a beating, but they will still stand thanks to the U.N.

I just hope the civilians get the asylum they will need.

I wouldn't get that confident....People used to say the same thing about Afghanistan and Iraq... "Oh it'll be wiped off the map in a month...." 10 years later.........

This is just about the most misguided thing I've ever read.

Fighting insurgents in a desert does not warrant the use of nuclear weapons.

I'm not saying this does, either, but it wouldn't be guerilla warfare, that's for sure.

#42 Edited by ArtelinaRose (1857 posts) -

@canteu said:

If N.Korea does actually act upon any of their threats, there will not be a N.Korea within about 6 months.

China will not back them. S.Korea will take a beating, but they will still stand thanks to the U.N.

I just hope the civilians get the asylum they will need.

All of N Korea just needs to be removed and who ever is in charge of South Korea needs to be put in charge. Because of how North was ruled they have slammed themselves into poverty and anguish.

In their defense, the part where like 90% of their foreign funding got cut when the USSR collapsed had a lot to do with completely fucking them.

#43 Posted by OfficeGamer (1087 posts) -

@officegamer said:

War is always going to happen, sooner or later, so let's not pretend that this an avoidable evil. Based on that logic, I'm really happy that the war that will change the balance of power in the world, as a war does every few decades, is about to happen in my life time. I wanna see what the world will be like with the USA no longer the boss, just for the lolz.

That's not a very good troll.

It's nothing against 'Murica if this was a hundred years ago I would've said Britain

#44 Posted by Demoskinos (15133 posts) -

Id like to think that N. Korea has a Metal Gear. That's the only way any of this gets interesting.

#45 Edited by I_Stay_Puft (3799 posts) -

Forgot where I heard it might have been Drew. But if North Korea was to fall China would have to back them and get in war with the neighboring countries and maybe the US. Also refugees would start flooding into other countries such as South Korea and they don't want the increase population. So pretty much North Korea is kept afloat due to the interest of all the neighboring countries. Nobody really wants North Korea cause their really isn't much gain except for a increased amount of poverty stricken people.

#46 Posted by Metal_Mills (3046 posts) -

Most of their threats have been bluffs, but I don't think they're kidding this time.

If China gets involved then it can be WWIII, but I doubt they will help them nowadays.

You see that's why the U.S lost the Korean War back in 1953, it was because China helped them.

I think this real, what do you think?

lol no. They aren't going to use nukes. China won't let them and Jong-Un might be a dick but the country isn't flat out stupid, using a nuke would mean the death of NK.

#47 Edited by Nivash (241 posts) -

@artemesia said:
In their defense, the part where like 90% of their foreign funding got cut when the USSR collapsed had a lot to do with completely fucking them.

That's not really a defense though, is it? It just shows that the country has been so mismanaged that it can't even sustain itself without significant amounts of foreign aid. This is doubly ironic since the Juche ideology that North Korea is founded on is about self-sufficiency to the exclusion of everything else.

@i_stay_puft said:

"Forgot where I heard it might have been Drew. But if North Korea was to fall China would have to back them and get in war with the neighboring countries and maybe the US. Also refugees would start flooding into other countries such as South Korea and they don't want the increase population. So pretty much North Korea is kept afloat due to the interest of all the neighboring countries. Nobody really wants North Korea cause their really isn't much gain except for a increased amount of poverty stricken people."

China don't really have to back a failing North Korea - certainly not to the extent of open warfare with South Korea, Japan, the US or others. But they would really prefer if North Korea remains afloat for as long as possible. The status quo right now is favorable for the Chinese: at little to no cost, they have a permanent buffer between themselves and the US-aligned South Korea. This minimizes the strategic advantage of US forces on the peninsula. But if Korea is unified, China will now be sharing borders with a US ally. If this happens, the US will both have access to naval and air bases in Japan as well as ground access into the Chinese heartland through Korea. This is a horrible scenario to be in military and will pretty much amount to complete encirclement, meaning that China will be completely incapable of standing up to the US militarily.

China knows that North Korea will eventually fall. But the longer that takes, the longer time China gets to grow economically which allows it to grow militarily. If nothing unforeseeable happens China will dethrone the US as the worlds largest economy in the near future, and might be capable of matching the US military budget a decade or so later. So in other words, if North Korea can remain standing until at least 2030 or so, China will be in a much better place militarily and won't have to worry about the US seriously considering doing something militarily against them, even with a unified Korea and Japan on its side.

Then there's the other side of things: both an economic collapse of North Korea or a war will send millions of North Korean refugees not scrambling into South Korea, but into China. China receives thousands of North Korean expats through the rather porous border yearly as it is and expels as many as they can. I probably shouldn't have to add that even to a nation of a billion like China, this would be a major headache.

But it should also be pointed out that joining North Korea and South Korea in a war on the peninsula would create precisely the Chinese doomsday scenario: US troops amassing in Korea and pushing into China. This is unavoidable. There is no way for North Korea, even if they had the entire Chinese military beside them, to defeat South Korea fast enough that the US won't be able to redeploy enough troops to Korea to be able to win a conventional war with China. As other posters have mentioned; China can't just redeploy entire armies to the DMZ without being detected or advance fast enough through North Korea. The Chinese military is vast, but not anywhere near as mobile as the US. It largely lacks amphibious or airdrop capabilities and the infrastructure in North Korea simply isn't up to snuff. Besides, they would still have to amass at staging grounds near the NK-Chinese border which would give the US a huge heads up.

As for why South Korea or the US isn't attacking North Korea, well, they would win but losses would be horrifying. Hundreds of thousands, possibly millions. The US wouldn't have attacked Iraq either if it had meant thousands of artillery shells pounding Washington DC minutes after the invasion had begun.

But anyway, you're correct: nothing happens because anything outside of the current status quo would be unthinkable to everyone involved. The only thing that could ignite a war would be if North Korea would start to fall apart so hard that its leaders would prefer going out in a blaze of glory rather than lynched by a starving population like some 18th century French monarch.

#48 Edited by Godlyawesomeguy (6402 posts) -

Wow, what a sensationalized thread title for what is just what you "think" will happen. Or do you have a crystal ball and we're all the ignorant masses?

#49 Edited by MentalDisruption (1670 posts) -

If they do use a nuke then i highly doubt anyone will be there to back them. They'd be starting their own end. Hopefully they're not that stupid, because if they hit anyone it'll likely be South Korea, and I'd hate to see them take a hit like that.

#50 Edited by Stonyman65 (2869 posts) -

America (and the most of the free world) has nothing to worry about.

South Korea, Japan and some areas of China on the other hand... That's another story.

The silver lining here is that if North Korea ever tried to do it, it probably wouldn't work, and then afterwards there would be no more North Korea because the South, Japan, and the US would turn it into a 46,528 square mile crater. So problem solved.