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#101 Edited by Legion_ (1256 posts) -

@legion_: Well it sort of depends, but that's an interesting internal point of view. I think at this point a gradual loss of power on the part of NATO is more likely unless Putin gets extremely aggressive. There's only so many places that have Ethnic Russians and not all of them are in the EU sphere of influence. War between China and the US within 20 years is quite likely but I'm not so sure about an EU vs Russia situation; going against Russia in a land war is really bad news even if you're the best commander in thousands of years.

The general thought is that the western countries won't instigate a war, but that Russia will be the ones to declare war on the west. It's no secret that the Russian government view the cold war as a huge defeat, and they want their vengeance. Personally I think Putin want to go down as one of the great Russian leaders, and in his eyes there's no way to do that without a war. Every dictator needs a enemy, and make no mistake, Putin is without a doubt a dictator.

The reason they're waiting, is that they are biding their time, building trade relations and finding new ways to get resources that they get from the west today. A war is gonna cost hella much on both sides in terms of resources. On the other hand, it'll drive down unemployment. Some experts theorize that the economy can never stabilize again without a war. Peace time for such a long period is unheard of in modern history.

#102 Posted by Legion_ (1256 posts) -

@dudeglove: I don't think you get what the army is about. In might sound crazy, but we're more about peace than war.

#103 Edited by dudeglove (7688 posts) -

@legion_ said:

In might sound crazy, but we're more about peace than war.

I'd certainly hope so considering insurgencies are de riguer.

#104 Posted by Fredchuckdave (5339 posts) -

@gruebacca: I don't really agree with your points, other than Putin has a rock solid hold on the country, but you might find this article amusing. Theoretically if Putin is successful for the rest of his tenure (~20 years) then Russia will be so powerful it doesn't matter what the wealth disparity is; if Americans don't care about it then there's no reason Russians are likely to care about it barring a rise of Socialism. Apart from everything else it seems somewhat likely that Russians will have fairly easy immigration into the most powerful country in the world in 20 years; so if they don't like Russia they can just go where the party's at.

#105 Edited by Legion_ (1256 posts) -

@legion_ said:

In might sound crazy, but we're more about peace than war.

I'd certainly hope so considering insurgencies are de riguer.

I don't think you're using that right.

#106 Posted by SnakeVSGiantBomb (295 posts) -
#107 Edited by MB (12020 posts) -

@video_game_king said:

@mb said:

@irishranger said:

Last I heard, the rest of the world wanted America to stop being the world's police...so there's that.

That's only until things get really bad, then the world will be complaining that we have all this political and military might and didn't act soon enough.

Negativity bias

incomplete sentences

Moderator Online
#108 Posted by Video_Game_King (36051 posts) -

@mb said:

@video_game_king said:

@mb said:

@irishranger said:

Last I heard, the rest of the world wanted America to stop being the world's police...so there's that.

That's only until things get really bad, then the world will be complaining that we have all this political and military might and didn't act soon enough.

Negativity bias

incomplete sentences

Did we just command negativity to bias incomplete sentences? Or is this incantation incomplete?

#109 Posted by freakin9 (1102 posts) -

There was a revolt by Ukrainians against Russia that led to this situation, or at least the Russians in power in Ukraine. Putin felt that he had to respond or look weak.

The fact is, Europe is unwilling to set in greater sanctions because they know it will have a counter effect of collapsing their own economy, which isn't exactly in a great state to begin with.

Putin is actually playing this brilliantly, he knows what he can get away with. That isn't to say he won't eventually let up. I don't think he will ever actually go to war publicly though, like some here have said, I think he will keep doing what he's doing without ever admitting what he's actually doing. It's hard to say how far he's willing to push it, but he can certainly push it a good deal further.

And no, I don't think a "twitter campaign" will do anything. You are fighting communism, not say, a videogame company not putting homosexuality in a game.

#110 Edited by Gruebacca (499 posts) -

@fredchuckdave: 20 years? I thought he had 10 left.

Yeah, he sure has an iron grip on the country, all right. I'm just not so sure his successor will be so mighty. It's very possible that Russia becomes irrelevant again soon after Putin's departure. It will be like the 1990's except worse. I'm also not saying it's the poor that will rise up against the regime. If that were the case, that would have happened by now. Much like the Arab Spring, it will be the urban youth that becomes discontented enough to protest. And shit, think about what the Internet will look like in 20 years and how much more connected the world will be. The world will be crazy.

It may be a longshot, but like Vinny, I bet on longshots!

#111 Posted by Fredchuckdave (5339 posts) -

@gruebacca: Different climate, different people, much more powerful military makes most dissent unlikely; but really just being successful benefits the entire populace. Russia may have oppressed groups but they don't make up 70% of the population. Putin is 62 and probably won't die at 72, I'm sure the life expectancy for the most powerful is a bit higher than the country average.

One would assume people would be smart enough to start regulating the internet very heavily like it is in China, else we'll have an even more inefficient workforce than we have now.

#112 Edited by dudeglove (7688 posts) -

Put blunt the turmoil of the 90s was caused by Yeltsin being co-opted into economic "reforms" encouraged by American economists which utterly destroyed all traces of the state in every industry and basically gave them all away for a song to shitheads like Berezovsky, Khodorkovsky and a bunch of others who became known as the oligarchs. The economy collapsed and the rouble defaulted and became worthless. The net effect was among other things the standard of living plunged new depths, a lot of people lost their savings, the average life expectancy for men dropped by something like 15 years and Russia now has the highest level of wealth inequality in the world (yes, even more than San Francisco).

When polled Russians talk about lamenting the end of the USSR, they aren't all secret Reds longing to rise up to slit your western throats and reform some Axis of Evil, they're talking about wealth inequality, which back then was measured in perks (not yachts). Compared to today's Russia (and Ukraine), people in the USSR lived longer and (arguably) easier lives. Once capitalism was brought in, Russians died off in their millions. Yeltsin's colossally-idiotic "reforms" were so bad that in the mid 2000s, Putin had to actively promote tax benefits/credits to women telling them to have more kids. The reason for this was because the number of deaths per annum had exceeded the births by 1 million. In simpler terms that meant that every year the Russian population was dropping by 1 million.

It's difficult to fully know the full extent of the damage caused, because some of the population drop was and is offset by mass migration in and out of Russia from CIS states and elsewhere.

You're claiming the 90s will repeat itself, but it really won't because almost the complete opposite has happened since then. Firstly, the Kremlin has since chased out (Vladimir Gusinsky), bought off/brought into its fold (Mikhail Friedman, Roman Abramovich), jailed/exiled (Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Leonid Nevzlin) or outright killed (Berezovsky... maybe) the remaining oligarchs and nearly all the major industries have come under the aegis of the state once more. Secondly, Putin is now incredibly popular, whereas towards the end of his tenure, Yeltsin (on top of being constantly drunk in public) was in the single digits in approval ratings. He was hated. By contrast, Putin has seemingly brought stability and order to his country, and his silent majority power base i.e. the ones who got screwed out of their savings in the 90s, who saw the best of their generation leave or succumb to alcoholism, crime, drugs or worse out of despair - love him for it.

@gruebacca: Different climate, different people, much more powerful military makes most dissent unlikely; but really just being successful benefits the entire populace. Russia may have oppressed groups but they don't make up 70% of the population. Putin is 62 and probably won't die at 72, I'm sure the life expectancy for the most powerful is a bit higher than the country average.

One would assume people would be smart enough to start regulating the internet very heavily like it is in China, else we'll have an even more inefficient workforce than we have now.

Gorbachev is still kicking, and Yeltsin still managed to drink for another 7 years after he resigned before dying.

As for internet censorship, Russia's all over that. Just look up "roskomnadzor" and "kavkaz center" to get yourself started.

#113 Posted by SnakeVSGiantBomb (295 posts) -

@dudeglove: Yep internet censorship has becoming a real problem in Russia, among other things, but hey I guess that's how you create empire.

#114 Posted by dudeglove (7688 posts) -

@dudeglove: Yep internet censorship has becoming a real problem in Russia, among other things, but hey I guess that's how you create empire.

If you flip the reality of the situation on its head, you might just see Russia's motivations for censorship in the first place.

Imagine that some of the most popular email, messaging, social networking sites and mobile phone platforms in America were run by Russian companies. Imagine the digital information of several hundred million Americans — private and business info — would be siphoned out of the U.S. and stored on servers located in Russia, where it would be out of the reach of U.S. courts and subject only to Russian law. Imagine further that all the information that passed through these services could be legally obtained by the Russian government and the FSB with a simple court order…but completely out of reach of US authorities. Oh, and on top of everything, imagine that some of these Russian companies have extremely close ties and tech-sharing agreements with Russia’s military and intelligence community.

The Kremlin sees the Internet as not just an American invention, but also one of their most powerful invasive tools.

#115 Edited by SnakeVSGiantBomb (295 posts) -

@dudeglove: oh yeah, and it isn't flowers for internet and net netrality in America right now(with spying and everything else) but Russia is it's own f-up thing.Also every country on this planet are spying on their citizens, and other countries.

Also about you argument of civil war in eastern parts of my country, I can give you a few examples:

1.First of all there are apparently 31 dead bodies being transported to Russia, which they tried to cover as humanitarian help.

2.Second it's already proved that there are about 70-75% of hired guns from Russia(for example sources state that pay for one day of conflict is 300$)

3. What civil war can you talk about if terrorist and separatists are using AA guns RPGS and heavy artillery(like right now they are 300 of those man attacking our military base)

Oh and I hope I will never live to the day when Internet is controlled by one government, especially Russia.

#116 Posted by SnakeVSGiantBomb (295 posts) -

@freakin9: He is willing to push this as far as we and other countries let him, if EU and USA will be so flacid nothing good will come out of it.

#117 Edited by Fredchuckdave (5339 posts) -

I suppose it's worth noting that there's ostensibly 3 Russian Tanks in Ukraine's borders at present, heading a small armored column.

No clue if that's a Russian or Ukrainian tank or what the deal is, but it's an interesting video regardless; whoever's driving the little white car is in a rather unenviable position.

Edit: Oh hey video got nuked within like 30 minutes; good job youtube.

#118 Edited by SnakeVSGiantBomb (295 posts) -

@fredchuckdave: So it's russian tanks, with scrapped serial numbers, also yesterday terrorists blew our airplane(49 soldiers dead), and people started rioting Russian embassy.