Crime has been level or on a decline for the past several years.
You should watch this, also logic is REALLY subjective, take it from me I'm actually a genius.
The issue of population is mute. Our population is already beyond our sustainable resources.
The issue of crime rates is mute.
The real societal impact is going to come from several converging events. Two of the most worrying being:
1. The Transhumanist transformation of the haves social class and the productive irrelevance of the un-enhanced have-nots subclass.
2. The inevitable Oil wars as we have ignored our dependance on a none sustainable resource to the point that we simply don't have the resources left to attain Cold Fusion or any other kind of method of obtaining a new power source once the Oil is gone. Thats if the inevitable war hasn't escalated to the point of mass destruction.
There are other events converging on us with extreme inevitability. The real interest will be what comes out of this impending mass conflict at the end. We are completely unprepared for these events as we have forgotten what happened over the last 200 years worldwide and what lead up to the events of the first and second world wars.
Within the next 100 years the World is going to war again. It is inevitable.
But hey on the bright side that will solve the over population problem :)
We can all hope for the Gene Roddenberry fantasy of the future but in the end that future is unobtainable at this point.
My recommendation? If you have children let them know how sorry you are for being a part of the Generation that ignored history and stuck its head in the sand. Otherwise enjoy living through the wonderful delusion of our current western society while it lasts... Which it would appear won't be long as we are starting to really feel the strain already.
Welcome to the generation of the doomed, we are all fucked and its too late to do anything about it anyway.
Have fun ;)
I'll just restate what I said in this thread, because I would basically be giving a lot of the same information. I would like to add though that there's going to be a *fuck ton* of war in the next 50 years, and especially the next 100. Corporate power is going to surge as we see a larger and larger gap between the rich and poor. Lobbyists will go from "often getting their way" to *always* getting their way in capitalist countries. I don't think we'll hit 20 billion people. Maybe at most 18 billion, but that will taper off, and probably even decline to around 15 billion. Realistically, I can't see us being able to support more than 12 billion people worldwide without moving towards Transhumanism. How effective Transhumanism would be at raising that limit remains to be seen.
And despite whatever humane reasons you may think may hold us back from doing so, I can see in a few decades that even the wealthiest countries will have to enact laws against how many kids you can have per household. (In first world capitalist countries, I'd imagine that it'd work out to how much annual income your family could provide)
I was looking on FutureTimeline.net for an answer to this just a couple of weeks ago... I'm pretty sure we'll do it after we've mastered Transhumanism, or relatively soon after that, anyway. Think about it:
The next stage for mankind is clearly going to be transhumanism, and you'll see more and more of it as we approach the end of this century. If we're going to be able to make better use of our resources, the next logical step is to improve our ability to come with ways to improve our ability to make better use of our resources, as well as coming up with alternate resources (I remember reading on that same site, that one day, we will get most if not all of our energy from the space around us?) It's all a matter of how expensive method X is, and what we get out of method X; as compared to method Y, and what we get out of method Y; as compared to method Z, and what we get out of method Z.
As getting more and more out of method X (Transhumanism) becomes more expensive, we will look towards Method Y, which is gathering solar radiation from space to simultaneously generate energy and create a perfect climate. Perhaps somewhere inbetween Transhumanism and gathering solar radiation for a perfect climate, or perhaps after both have run their course, you'll see major missions towards colonizing other planets for people to actually LIVE there, not just gather resources from, which we will have surely already started operations for by that point.
That's my theory, anyway.
Also, while I dont think we'll ALL be dead.... we're stastically very likely to do two extremely scary fucking things in the near(ish) future.
Nanocaust - imagine seeing a huge black cloud. That black cloud goes over your town, and everyone in that town is instantly evaporated into a flesh-colored dust. That will probably happen at least once. But like an atomic bomb, they'll be rare.
Home-made super-virus - Yeah, eventually biological warfare will be so cheap to do by our standards, that even the most advanced methods of creating a super-virus (re: something that can wipe out a third of the planet under "optimistic" conditions) can be done by a single person.
Sorry to keep reviving this thread, but I forgot about a paper I was doing on a strikingly similar subject to this at the time - when space travel will be easy to do. Follows much the same points I argued earlier.
According to Future Timeline’s front page description of the 22nd century, the gist of what will happen by the next hundred years is that Earth will have “Diverging paths for humans and transhumans, as conditions on Earth continue to deteriorate” (Fox). Clearly, humanity can’t stay here forever – if one wants to surivive, one must look to the stars. That’s easy to say, but less so to do. Going into space certainly hasn’t gotten much easier since our first forays into the black void. One small mistake during launch and the shuttle will burst into flames during re-entry and kill everyone on board. One tiny hole in a spacesuit and whoever’s wearing it will suffocate almost instantaneously. So when will humans finally be able to go freely and easily into space? The answer is two fold – we will flee this earthly prison when we have mastered Transhumanism and our use of energy on this planet. Transhumanism is already in its preliminary stages.
News of a “Mind-controlled Super Limb” (Ungerleider) made its debut only a few short days ago – October 25, in fact. A mere day before that, artificial skin that could actually feel was announced by researchers at Stanford (Bonnington). Prosthetics are quickly approaching the point where they are just as effective as their fleshy counterparts, and soon, they will even surpass them in fidelity. Like it or not, we are moving into the Transhuman Era. Imagine if you had bionic lungs that would absorb energy from the matter around it, instead of just oxygen; or bionic muscles, that would be strong enough to make an olympic sprinter blush, and wouldn’t require exercise; or a bionic hard-drive, that would let you literally download your education, and you’d never forget things; or bionic eyes, that would turn you into a walking Hubble Telescope – applied to space-travel, the benefits are phenominal. No longer would we need perfectly air-tight space-ships, nor constant and vigorous physical exercise, nor decades of training and education, nor millions of dollars worth of state-of-the-art surveilance equipment kept in prime condition. What Transhumanism does not solve, however, is our need for energy.
The amount of fuel required for each trip into space is a huge hurdle to overcome for ease of travel in space – the sheer size of the booster rockets on a space shuttle should be proof enough. But what if that power could be generated on-demand? A far-fetched thought by today’s standards, but we are already experimenting with fusion energy – the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) is a good example. If we could minaturize fusion reactors into something that could produce enough power to lift a spaceship off Earth, even the largest vessels wouldn’t need a drop of petroleum. The successor to fusion – antimatter – might even generate enough power for laser drills, force fields and any number of other things we currently consider science-fiction.
For now, space-travel is excruciatingly difficult, and only the best of the best need apply – and only the best of those best will actually go into space. But eventually, there will be millions of the equivalent of a bus or ferry in space, each carrying dozens or more passengers to their destinations, and they won’t bat an eyelash to the wonder of what they’re doing: space-travel.
- Christina Bonnington. “Skin-Like Sensors Could Bring Tactile Sensations to Robots, Humans.” Wired. Ed. Evan Hansen, Kevin Poulsen, Chuck Squatriglia, Betsy Mason, Noah Schactman, Chris Kohler, Lewis Wallace, Scott Gilbertson, Michael Calore. 24 Oct. 2011. 1 Nov. 2011 <http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2011/10/stretchy-capacitive-skin/>
- Neal Ungerleider. “Researchers Create A Mind-Controlled Super Limb.” Talking Points Memo. Ed. John Marshall, David Kurtz, Paul Werdel, , Igor Bobic. 25 Oct. 2011. . 31 Oct. 2011. <http://idealab.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/10/john-hopkins-creates-a-mind-controlled-super-limb.php>
- Future Timeline. Will Fox. 31 Oct. 2011. < http://www.futuretimeline.net/>
Your right ignorance is a problem... tackling it begins with you... please do not talk about things you don't understand... its what spreads ignorance.
FYI food is not a problem... not in our day and age... its distribution is, though its getting better. + i'm pretty sure that the % of people in poverty Decreases every year. Poverty(as in basic survival needs) will probably be eradicated within the next 100(easily, Jeffrey sachs says end of poverty in 20 but its probably too optimistic) years at this rate. Crime is related to poverty and will probably be close to extinct with the end of poverty.
War... well in reality we have been seeing a period of peace and prosperity, this is the primary achievement of the EU and as its influence spreads this effect will too. Natural disaster's are a problem but they don't really scale with the rest of the categories.
Overpopulation, i dno that's a tough one... its shaky... i mean we should be flying to the moon for fun in 20 years(less actually), so living there is probably 50 years away, once we learn to travel... then there's no longer a limit to how much space we can occupy. China managed to control there population... but i guess people in the west have problems with such policies.
Please guys, for your own sakes:
Don't waste your time on trying to use logical arguments against this troll.
I'm pretty certain I speak for everybody when I say that this guy has been so obviously trolling since his arrival here that we should either ridicule or ignore him.
I feel respect but also pity for the users in this thread who committed their precious time to research all the facts and data, but as we can see it was to no avail.
I mean, this guy claims he is smarter than the UN.
So please duders, don't give him the attention he doesn't deserve. It will be better for everybody in the long run.
It is a melancholy object to those, who walk through this great town, or travel in the country, when they see the streets, the roads and cabbin-doors crowded with beggars of the female sex, followed by three, four, or six children, all in rags, and importuning every passenger for an alms. These mothers instead of being able to work for their honest livelihood, are forced to employ all their time in stroling to beg sustenance for their helpless infants who, as they grow up, either turn thieves for want of work, or leave their dear native country, to fight for the Pretender in Spain, or sell themselves to the Barbadoes. I think it is agreed by all parties, that this prodigious number of children in the arms, or on the backs, or at the heels of their mothers, and frequently of their fathers, is in the present deplorable state of the kingdom, a very great additional grievance; and therefore whoever could find out a fair, cheap and easy method of making these children sound and useful members of the common-wealth, would deserve so well of the publick, as to have his statue set up for a preserver of the nation. But my intention is very far from being confined to provide only for the children of professed beggars: it is of a much greater extent, and shall take in the whole number of infants at a certain age, who are born of parents in effect as little able to support them, as those who demand our charity in the streets. As to my own part, having turned my thoughts for many years, upon this important subject, and maturely weighed the several schemes of our projectors, I have always found them grossly mistaken in their computation. It is true, a child just dropt from its dam, may be supported by her milk, for a solar year, with little other nourishment: at most not above the value of two shillings, which the mother may certainly get, or the value in scraps, by her lawful occupation of begging; and it is exactly at one year old that I propose to provide for them in such a manner, as, instead of being a charge upon their parents, or the parish, or wanting food and raiment for the rest of their lives, they shall, on the contrary, contribute to the feeding, and partly to the cloathing of many thousands. There is likewise another great advantage in my scheme, that it will prevent those voluntary abortions, and that horrid practice of women murdering their bastard children, alas! too frequent among us, sacrificing the poor innocent babes, I doubt, more to avoid the expence than the shame, which would move tears and pity in the most savage and inhuman breast. The number of souls in this kingdom being usually reckoned one million and a half, of these I calculate there may be about two hundred thousand couple whose wives are breeders; from which number I subtract thirty thousand couple, who are able to maintain their own children, (although I apprehend there cannot be so many, under the present distresses of the kingdom) but this being granted, there will remain an hundred and seventy thousand breeders. I again subtract fifty thousand, for those women who miscarry, or whose children die by accident or disease within the year. There only remain an hundred and twenty thousand children of poor parents annually born. The question therefore is, How this number shall be reared, and provided for? which, as I have already said, under the present situation of affairs, is utterly impossible by all the methods hitherto proposed. For we can neither employ them in handicraft or agriculture; we neither build houses, (I mean in the country) nor cultivate land: they can very seldom pick up a livelihood by stealing till they arrive at six years old; except where they are of towardly parts, although I confess they learn the rudiments much earlier; during which time they can however be properly looked upon only as probationers: As I have been informed by a principal gentleman in the county of Cavan, who protested to me, that he never knew above one or two instances under the age of six, even in a part of the kingdom so renowned for the quickest proficiency in that art. I am assured by our merchants, that a boy or a girl before twelve years old, is no saleable commodity, and even when they come to this age, they will not yield above three pounds, or three pounds and half a crown at most, on the exchange; which cannot turn to account either to the parents or kingdom, the charge of nutriments and rags having been at least four times that value. I shall now therefore humbly propose my own thoughts, which I hope will not be liable to the least objection. I have been assured by a very knowing American of my acquaintance in London, that a young healthy child well nursed, is, at a year old, a most delicious nourishing and wholesome food, whether stewed, roasted, baked, or boiled; and I make no doubt that it will equally serve in a fricasie, or a ragoust. I do therefore humbly offer it to publick consideration, that of the hundred and twenty thousand children, already computed, twenty thousand may be reserved for breed, whereof only one fourth part to be males; which is more than we allow to sheep, black cattle, or swine, and my reason is, that these children are seldom the fruits of marriage, a circumstance not much regarded by our savages, therefore, one male will be sufficient to serve four females. That the remaining hundred thousand may, at a year old, be offered in sale to the persons of quality and fortune, through the kingdom, always advising the mother to let them suck plentifully in the last month, so as to render them plump, and fat for a good table. A child will make two dishes at an entertainment for friends, and when the family dines alone, the fore or hind quarter will make a reasonable dish, and seasoned with a little pepper or salt, will be very good boiled on the fourth day, especially in winter. I have reckoned upon a medium, that a child just born will weigh 12 pounds, and in a solar year, if tolerably nursed, encreaseth to 28 pounds. I grant this food will be somewhat dear, and therefore very proper for landlords, who, as they have already devoured most of the parents, seem to have the best title to the children. Infant's flesh will be in season throughout the year, but more plentiful in March, and a little before and after; for we are told by a grave author, an eminent French physician, that fish being a prolifick dyet, there are more children born in Roman Catholick countries about nine months after Lent, the markets will be more glutted than usual, because the number of Popish infants, is at least three to one in this kingdom, and therefore it will have one other collateral advantage, by lessening the number of Papists among us. I have already computed the charge of nursing a beggar's child (in which list I reckon all cottagers, labourers, and four-fifths of the farmers) to be about two shillings per annum, rags included; and I believe no gentleman would repine to give ten shillings for the carcass of a good fat child, which, as I have said, will make four dishes of excellent nutritive meat, when he hath only some particular friend, or his own family to dine with him. Thus the squire will learn to be a good landlord, and grow popular among his tenants, the mother will have eight shillings neat profit, and be fit for work till she produces another child. Those who are more thrifty (as I must confess the times require) may flea the carcass; the skin of which, artificially dressed, will make admirable gloves for ladies, and summer boots for fine gentlemen. As to our City of Dublin, shambles may be appointed for this purpose, in the most convenient parts of it, and butchers we may be assured will not be wanting; although I rather recommend buying the children alive, and dressing them hot from the knife, as we do roasting pigs. A very worthy person, a true lover of his country, and whose virtues I highly esteem, was lately pleased, in discoursing on this matter, to offer a refinement upon my scheme. He said, that many gentlemen of this kingdom, having of late destroyed their deer, he conceived that the want of venison might be well supply'd by the bodies of young lads and maidens, not exceeding fourteen years of age, nor under twelve; so great a number of both sexes in every country being now ready to starve for want of work and service: And these to be disposed of by their parents if alive, or otherwise by their nearest relations. But with due deference to so excellent a friend, and so deserving a patriot, I cannot be altogether in his sentiments; for as to the males, my American acquaintance assured me from frequent experience, that their flesh was generally tough and lean, like that of our school-boys, by continual exercise, and their taste disagreeable, and to fatten them would not answer the charge. Then as to the females, it would, I think, with humble submission, be a loss to the publick, because they soon would become breeders themselves: And besides, it is not improbable that some scrupulous people might be apt to censure such a practice, (although indeed very unjustly) as a little bordering upon cruelty, which, I confess, hath always been with me the strongest objection against any project, how well soever intended. But in order to justify my friend, he confessed, that this expedient was put into his head by the famous Salmanaazor, a native of the island Formosa, who came from thence to London, above twenty years ago, and in conversation told my friend, that in his country, when any young person happened to be put to death, the executioner sold the carcass to persons of quality, as a prime dainty; and that, in his time, the body of a plump girl of fifteen, who was crucified for an attempt to poison the Emperor, was sold to his imperial majesty's prime minister of state, and other great mandarins of the court in joints from the gibbet, at four hundred crowns. Neither indeed can I deny, that if the same use were made of several plump young girls in this town, who without one single groat to their fortunes, cannot stir abroad without a chair, and appear at a play-house and assemblies in foreign fineries which they never will pay for; the kingdom would not be the worse. Some persons of a desponding spirit are in great concern about that vast number of poor people, who are aged, diseased, or maimed; and I have been desired to employ my thoughts what course may be taken, to ease the nation of so grievous an incumbrance. But I am not in the least pain upon that matter, because it is very well known, that they are every day dying, and rotting, by cold and famine, and filth, and vermin, as fast as can be reasonably expected. And as to the young labourers, they are now in almost as hopeful a condition. They cannot get work, and consequently pine away from want of nourishment, to a degree, that if at any time they are accidentally hired to common labour, they have not strength to perform it, and thus the country and themselves are happily delivered from the evils to come. I have too long digressed, and therefore shall return to my subject. I think the advantages by the proposal which I have made are obvious and many, as well as of the highest importance. For first, as I have already observed, it would greatly lessen the number of Papists, with whom we are yearly over-run, being the principal breeders of the nation, as well as our most dangerous enemies, and who stay at home on purpose with a design to deliver the kingdom to the Pretender, hoping to take their advantage by the absence of so many good Protestants, who have chosen rather to leave their country, than stay at home and pay tithes against their conscience to an episcopal curate. Secondly, The poorer tenants will have something valuable of their own, which by law may be made liable to a distress, and help to pay their landlord's rent, their corn and cattle being already seized, and money a thing unknown. Thirdly, Whereas the maintainance of an hundred thousand children, from two years old, and upwards, cannot be computed at less than ten shillings a piece per annum, the nation's stock will be thereby encreased fifty thousand pounds per annum, besides the profit of a new dish, introduced to the tables of all gentlemen of fortune in the kingdom, who have any refinement in taste. And the money will circulate among our selves, the goods being entirely of our own growth and manufacture. Fourthly, The constant breeders, besides the gain of eight shillings sterling per annum by the sale of their children, will be rid of the charge of maintaining them after the first year. Fifthly, This food would likewise bring great custom to taverns, where the vintners will certainly be so prudent as to procure the best receipts for dressing it to perfection; and consequently have their houses frequented by all the fine gentlemen, who justly value themselves upon their knowledge in good eating; and a skilful cook, who understands how to oblige his guests, will contrive to make it as expensive as they please. Sixthly, This would be a great inducement to marriage, which all wise nations have either encouraged by rewards, or enforced by laws and penalties. It would encrease the care and tenderness of mothers towards their children, when they were sure of a settlement for life to the poor babes, provided in some sort by the publick, to their annual profit instead of expence. We should soon see an honest emulation among the married women, which of them could bring the fattest child to the market. Men would become as fond of their wives, during the time of their pregnancy, as they are now of their mares in foal, their cows in calf, or sow when they are ready to farrow; nor offer to beat or kick them (as is too frequent a practice) for fear of a miscarriage. Many other advantages might be enumerated. For instance, the addition of some thousand carcasses in our exportation of barrel'd beef: the propagation of swine's flesh, and improvement in the art of making good bacon, so much wanted among us by the great destruction of pigs, too frequent at our tables; which are no way comparable in taste or magnificence to a well grown, fat yearly child, which roasted whole will make a considerable figure at a Lord Mayor's feast, or any other publick entertainment. But this, and many others, I omit, being studious of brevity. Supposing that one thousand families in this city, would be constant customers for infants flesh, besides others who might have it at merry meetings, particularly at weddings and christenings, I compute that Dublin would take off annually about twenty thousand carcasses; and the rest of the kingdom (where probably they will be sold somewhat cheaper) the remaining eighty thousand. I can think of no one objection, that will possibly be raised against this proposal, unless it should be urged, that the number of people will be thereby much lessened in the kingdom. This I freely own, and 'twas indeed one principal design in offering it to the world. I desire the reader will observe, that I calculate my remedy for this one individual Kingdom of Ireland, and for no other that ever was, is, or, I think, ever can be upon Earth. Therefore let no man talk to me of other expedients: Of taxing our absentees at five shillings a pound: Of using neither cloaths, nor houshold furniture, except what is of our own growth and manufacture: Of utterly rejecting the materials and instruments that promote foreign luxury: Of curing the expensiveness of pride, vanity, idleness, and gaming in our women: Of introducing a vein of parsimony, prudence and temperance: Of learning to love our country, wherein we differ even from Laplanders, and the inhabitants of Topinamboo: Of quitting our animosities and factions, nor acting any longer like the Jews, who were murdering one another at the very moment their city was taken: Of being a little cautious not to sell our country and consciences for nothing: Of teaching landlords to have at least one degree of mercy towards their tenants. Lastly, of putting a spirit of honesty, industry, and skill into our shop-keepers, who, if a resolution could now be taken to buy only our native goods, would immediately unite to cheat and exact upon us in the price, the measure, and the goodness, nor could ever yet be brought to make one fair proposal of just dealing, though often and earnestly invited to it. Therefore I repeat, let no man talk to me of these and the like expedients, 'till he hath at least some glympse of hope, that there will ever be some hearty and sincere attempt to put them into practice. But, as to my self, having been wearied out for many years with offering vain, idle, visionary thoughts, and at length utterly despairing of success, I fortunately fell upon this proposal, which, as it is wholly new, so it hath something solid and real, of no expence and little trouble, full in our own power, and whereby we can incur no danger in disobliging England. For this kind of commodity will not bear exportation, and flesh being of too tender a consistence, to admit a long continuance in salt, although perhaps I could name a country, which would be glad to eat up our whole nation without it. After all, I am not so violently bent upon my own opinion, as to reject any offer, proposed by wise men, which shall be found equally innocent, cheap, easy, and effectual. But before something of that kind shall be advanced in contradiction to my scheme, and offering a better, I desire the author or authors will be pleased maturely to consider two points. First, As things now stand, how they will be able to find food and raiment for a hundred thousand useless mouths and backs. And secondly, There being a round million of creatures in humane figure throughout this kingdom, whose whole subsistence put into a common stock, would leave them in debt two million of pounds sterling, adding those who are beggars by profession, to the bulk of farmers, cottagers and labourers, with their wives and children, who are beggars in effect; I desire those politicians who dislike my overture, and may perhaps be so bold to attempt an answer, that they will first ask the parents of these mortals, whether they would not at this day think it a great happiness to have been sold for food at a year old, in the manner I prescribe, and thereby have avoided such a perpetual scene of misfortunes, as they have since gone through, by the oppression of landlords, the impossibility of paying rent without money or trade, the want of common sustenance, with neither house nor cloaths to cover them from the inclemencies of the weather, and the most inevitable prospect of intailing the like, or greater miseries, upon their breed for ever. I profess, in the sincerity of my heart, that I have not the least personal interest in endeavouring to promote this necessary work, having no other motive than the publick good of my country, by advancing our trade, providing for infants, relieving the poor, and giving some pleasure to the rich. I have no children, by which I can propose to get a single penny; the youngest being nine years old, and my wife past child-bearing.
There's a natural balance to everything. If there are too many people then they will die to bring us back into a more manageable population.
Unfortunately this leaves humanity very dependent on technology. if it fails, expect massive casualties. But hey if you're one of the survivors who cares right lol