Posted by Trace (3577 posts) -

I must admit, there's a part of me that wanted to put a bunch of 3D crap into this post. Maybe even make my graphs 3D through those red-blue glasses. Then I remembered how annoying a fad 3D can be. I also remembered how much my eyes hurt after using a Virtual Boy for a three-hour session of Mario Tennis or whatever that game was called.
 
In short, I'm just going to post these stats real quickly and hope we succeed and get some bonus XP. How's that sound?
 
First, our final graph:

3DSanity Final Progress
The yellow line at the very top was the 3,000 user goal, the red line's the average pace we needed to exceed to succeed, and the green line was our overall progress. Because the community quest started well after the quest set was made public, the graph doesn't start right at zero.
 
Easy quest? Yes it was. Smashing job, everyone. I was going to post a picture of a 3D puppy, at least based on a Google image search, but the results were too creepy to share.
 
Some final stats:
  • We finished this quest at 7:52 PM EDT on March 30th, 30.1 hours into the community quest.
  • The 3000th user to complete this quest was Agent47. PooffBallzZzZ, BOOMgoestheDYNAMITE, and Van all narrowly missed their chance to be in the top 3000.
  • At the start of this community quest, we needed roughly 25.08 completions per hour to succeed.
  • Over the course of this quest, we averaged 91 completions per hour. In the final three hours, we averaged 48.5 completions per hour. That's really good.
  • Because of the nature of this quest set, with the community quest appearing a day after the set itself was published, I feel it'd be unfair to compare it to previous community quests. That said, taking this quest's full duration into account and using its point of success for judgement, it performed worse than The Odd Couple and slightly better than Going Commando.
  • Let's see which of my prediction methods was most accurate, eh? ...eh?
 

Long Straight-Line Short Straight-Line Pessimist's CURVE
Success Point (hours in) as of Day 1 numbers
26.6 32.2 26.2 22.4
 
  • Wow. One of my straight-line averages was most accurate! In all fairness, none of the prediction methods took the overnight slowdown into account, and it's hard for any estimations to zero in on a proper target in just over one day. I'm going to keep using this table for future quests, though. I want to see how the estimations change over time, and when/if they're all that accurate.
  • As of the time I'm typing this, 3,077 people have completed the 3DSanity set. That's means in the time after we hit 3,000, our average rate dropped to 14.5 completions per hour. To be honest, that's still pretty good for a quest in which bonus XP is now out of reach. Heck, if that completion rate actually remained stable, we could have hit 4,000 completions before the quest's deadline.
 
If you have any questions, comments, or criticisms, don't hesitate to post them in this thread!
 
As always, thanks for reading, and I'll be back the next time a community quest rears its head.
#1 Edited by Trace (3577 posts) -

I must admit, there's a part of me that wanted to put a bunch of 3D crap into this post. Maybe even make my graphs 3D through those red-blue glasses. Then I remembered how annoying a fad 3D can be. I also remembered how much my eyes hurt after using a Virtual Boy for a three-hour session of Mario Tennis or whatever that game was called.
 
In short, I'm just going to post these stats real quickly and hope we succeed and get some bonus XP. How's that sound?
 
First, our final graph:

3DSanity Final Progress
The yellow line at the very top was the 3,000 user goal, the red line's the average pace we needed to exceed to succeed, and the green line was our overall progress. Because the community quest started well after the quest set was made public, the graph doesn't start right at zero.
 
Easy quest? Yes it was. Smashing job, everyone. I was going to post a picture of a 3D puppy, at least based on a Google image search, but the results were too creepy to share.
 
Some final stats:
  • We finished this quest at 7:52 PM EDT on March 30th, 30.1 hours into the community quest.
  • The 3000th user to complete this quest was Agent47. PooffBallzZzZ, BOOMgoestheDYNAMITE, and Van all narrowly missed their chance to be in the top 3000.
  • At the start of this community quest, we needed roughly 25.08 completions per hour to succeed.
  • Over the course of this quest, we averaged 91 completions per hour. In the final three hours, we averaged 48.5 completions per hour. That's really good.
  • Because of the nature of this quest set, with the community quest appearing a day after the set itself was published, I feel it'd be unfair to compare it to previous community quests. That said, taking this quest's full duration into account and using its point of success for judgement, it performed worse than The Odd Couple and slightly better than Going Commando.
  • Let's see which of my prediction methods was most accurate, eh? ...eh?
 

Long Straight-Line Short Straight-Line Pessimist's CURVE
Success Point (hours in) as of Day 1 numbers
26.6 32.2 26.2 22.4
 
  • Wow. One of my straight-line averages was most accurate! In all fairness, none of the prediction methods took the overnight slowdown into account, and it's hard for any estimations to zero in on a proper target in just over one day. I'm going to keep using this table for future quests, though. I want to see how the estimations change over time, and when/if they're all that accurate.
  • As of the time I'm typing this, 3,077 people have completed the 3DSanity set. That's means in the time after we hit 3,000, our average rate dropped to 14.5 completions per hour. To be honest, that's still pretty good for a quest in which bonus XP is now out of reach. Heck, if that completion rate actually remained stable, we could have hit 4,000 completions before the quest's deadline.
 
If you have any questions, comments, or criticisms, don't hesitate to post them in this thread!
 
As always, thanks for reading, and I'll be back the next time a community quest rears its head.
#2 Posted by Mento (2808 posts) -

I was worried this wouldn't show up before the quest got beat. But then it would've been a lot easier to keep the graph updated I suppose.
 
I don't see how we can miss this one. It's pretty easy. Let's all see how wrong I can be! Exciting!

Moderator Online
#3 Posted by BombKareshi (979 posts) -

Boy, do I ever love reading these!
 
I wonder what the graph would have looked like if the first 300 completions were taken into account.
 
I was #945 to finish, so that puts me around the 2 - 3 hour mark. I remember finishing one of the quests without even realizing it was part of a new set.

#4 Posted by LordAndrew (14430 posts) -

No problem!

#5 Posted by skrutop (3615 posts) -

I love your sexy, sexy graphs.  This one's in the bag.

#6 Posted by buft (3320 posts) -

i started this quest before it went on the main page but didnt realise it was a communtiy quest, so i stopped ended up in the top 500 anyway

#7 Posted by Trace (3577 posts) -
@BombKareshi said:
" I wonder what the graph would have looked like if the first 300 completions were taken into account. "
B0nd07 was 1st to complete this set, and he did so roughly 44 hours ago. That gives us about 17.8 hours before the community quest, in which we accumulated roughly 260 completions before bonus XP was put on the line. That's an average rate of 14.6 completions per hour, which would be below the average rate of completions needed to succeed in this quest.
 
If I were to guess, our graphed progress would likely have started out just above the red line, with a brief 100-user surge within the very first hour of the quest set appearing, and then stagnated afterwards with a rate of 9.5 completions/hr, falling below the red line about nine hours in. Goes to show just how much quest sets benefit from the community quest feature.
#8 Posted by melcene (3034 posts) -

I think one of the big things with the community quest feature is that it puts it out there on the front page for people to know that there's a new quest set available.  I don't often check my quest page.  I usually end up doing quests when they're community quests.

#9 Posted by SMTDante89 (2582 posts) -

It's in the bag.

#10 Posted by Mento (2808 posts) -

Good gravy, the quest went up yesterday and is only 100 completions away from target. 
 
I also spotted it early and finished at #11, which was alarmingly expeditious for someone who normally comes to GB to veg out.

Moderator Online
#11 Posted by UnsolvedParadox (1867 posts) -

Great graph as always, I'm glad this quest is definitely hitting its target.

#12 Posted by Trace (3577 posts) -

Final stats are posted! Apologies for the delay. You can blame a night class and the amazing season finale of Top Chef All-Stars for that.
 
As you probably knew already, we succeeded quite easily. There's even a chance we could have attained 4,000 completions, though it would have been much closer. In addition, it looks like a straight-line estimate was most accurate in predicting when the goal would be hit! Go figure.
 
Although there's no reason to do so with this very short quest, for future quests I'll probably change up these "stats are updated" posts and forgo useless commentary or copy-pasting the daily stats. Instead, the table for prediction comparisons and another table with basic stats by day will probably go down here. That way, it'll be a little easier to see how a quest trends.
 
This is all assuming I remember this the next time a community quest shows up, but I have the feeling that will be quite soon. Until then, thanks for reading, and Top Chef All-Stars may very well be the best season of any reality TV show. Just saying.