Posted by Trace (3574 posts) -

So Brink's a game! To be honest, I didn't know a thing about it until this week, when the reviews and quick looks started rolling out. Regardless, I've had this odd curiosity, this interest, this desire to try Brink out. You know why?

It's that neat light blue box cover. Maybe it's slightly aqua blueish. Still, they use that color for all the box cover-esque promotion materials, and it's really darn catchy to the eyes. That color choice alone has piqued my interest far too much. Perhaps my tired old graphs could stand to be renovated, too!

Let's try that right now.

On the Brink Final Progress

The yellow line at the top is our 3,000 user goal, the red line's the average pace we need to exceed to succeed, and the trendy white line is our progress over the duration of the quest.

SUCCESS! My vacuum effect exists! The closer the quest edged to its goal, the faster the completion rate increased. Also, this played out excellently for a quest, coming down to the final few hours to determine whether we'd succeed or fail. The decision to make this a 3,000 user goal was very wise, indeed.

I'm also considering making my graphs look more stylish in the future. I think prettier graphs are a must now.

Here's some bland final stats to look at when your eyes need a break from the beauty of our success:

  • We finished this quest at 11:25 PM EDT on May 15th, 130.2 hours into the quest. We finished with 3.6 hours still on the clock.
  • As of yesterday, we needed at least 7.07 completions per hour to succeed. Overnight, this increased to 8.7 completions per hour. Overall, we needed to exceed 22.43 completions per hour to succeed.
  • Our final overall average was 23 completions per hour. In the last half hour, our average was 32.1 completions per hour. Yeah, you read that last stat right. 32.1 is a huge number, spurred on by people scrambling to be one of the final few to earn bonus XP.
  • If our overall average pace remained stable, we'd have the potential to earn 3,082 completions. 3,000 was indeed a very wisely chosen user goal.
  • The most accurate estimation model was the CURVE estimate on day three, which estimated we'd succeed with less than an hour to go. No model did a particularly good job of guessing the increase in the final day, which is to be expected.
  • Just eyeballing the overall performance graph, it appears we're performing between the Hyper Combo Chain Multiplier and Uh Uh Uh Uh Uh quest. Still trying to think up a better way to present the overall graph to prevent it from being a mess of colored spaghetti-esque lines.

Questions? Requests? Criticisms? Don't hesitate to post them here. I'll be back with pretty graphs the next time a quest rears its ugly head.

#1 Edited by Trace (3574 posts) -

So Brink's a game! To be honest, I didn't know a thing about it until this week, when the reviews and quick looks started rolling out. Regardless, I've had this odd curiosity, this interest, this desire to try Brink out. You know why?

It's that neat light blue box cover. Maybe it's slightly aqua blueish. Still, they use that color for all the box cover-esque promotion materials, and it's really darn catchy to the eyes. That color choice alone has piqued my interest far too much. Perhaps my tired old graphs could stand to be renovated, too!

Let's try that right now.

On the Brink Final Progress

The yellow line at the top is our 3,000 user goal, the red line's the average pace we need to exceed to succeed, and the trendy white line is our progress over the duration of the quest.

SUCCESS! My vacuum effect exists! The closer the quest edged to its goal, the faster the completion rate increased. Also, this played out excellently for a quest, coming down to the final few hours to determine whether we'd succeed or fail. The decision to make this a 3,000 user goal was very wise, indeed.

I'm also considering making my graphs look more stylish in the future. I think prettier graphs are a must now.

Here's some bland final stats to look at when your eyes need a break from the beauty of our success:

  • We finished this quest at 11:25 PM EDT on May 15th, 130.2 hours into the quest. We finished with 3.6 hours still on the clock.
  • As of yesterday, we needed at least 7.07 completions per hour to succeed. Overnight, this increased to 8.7 completions per hour. Overall, we needed to exceed 22.43 completions per hour to succeed.
  • Our final overall average was 23 completions per hour. In the last half hour, our average was 32.1 completions per hour. Yeah, you read that last stat right. 32.1 is a huge number, spurred on by people scrambling to be one of the final few to earn bonus XP.
  • If our overall average pace remained stable, we'd have the potential to earn 3,082 completions. 3,000 was indeed a very wisely chosen user goal.
  • The most accurate estimation model was the CURVE estimate on day three, which estimated we'd succeed with less than an hour to go. No model did a particularly good job of guessing the increase in the final day, which is to be expected.
  • Just eyeballing the overall performance graph, it appears we're performing between the Hyper Combo Chain Multiplier and Uh Uh Uh Uh Uh quest. Still trying to think up a better way to present the overall graph to prevent it from being a mess of colored spaghetti-esque lines.

Questions? Requests? Criticisms? Don't hesitate to post them here. I'll be back with pretty graphs the next time a quest rears its ugly head.

#2 Posted by Sparklykiss (1983 posts) -

So your favorite color's orange, right?

Moderator
#3 Posted by Yanngc33 (4496 posts) -

Enjoyed this one :)

#4 Posted by BombKareshi (996 posts) -

I know next to nothing about Brink myself (despite having completed the quest) so your jokes about the box cover colour are welcome. I enjoy looking at your graphs regardless of their colour, though. Anyway, staying optimistic about this one!

#5 Posted by Vexxan (4623 posts) -

Let's get questing, duders.

#6 Posted by yoshimitz707 (2453 posts) -

Quest was way too easy. We should have no trouble finishing this.

Online
#7 Posted by SMTDante89 (2600 posts) -

The graph... it's so BEAUTIFUL!

#8 Posted by Mento (2698 posts) -

Man, that is certainly an aqua graph.

I'm hoping that because this game is getting terrible word of mouth, the line will rise sharply at first and then suddenly cut down to almost zero completions per hour due to lack of interest, creating a shark fin shape on your blue graph there. Then I can make a "It's gonna need a bigger QA team" joke. But I'm getting ahead of myself.

Moderator
#9 Posted by Conker (784 posts) -

Hints for the geniuses part of the quest?


#10 Posted by pickassoreborn (530 posts) -
@Conker: All locations. One of which is closer than you think.
#11 Posted by wrathofconn (1463 posts) -

You're right, the box art on this game is slick as hell. Also, I think the game is pretty good, though most of the complaints Jeff and others have had are certainly valid.

#12 Posted by Trace (3574 posts) -

Graph and stats updated. I'm insanely tired right now, so if something's off in the initial post, I do apologize. In short, if day three is the same drastic drop-off point that is has been in the past, we're screwed. Otherwise, we might be fine!

Here's some quick copy-pasted tables. First, our completion rate over time:


Long-Term Pace Short-Term Pace Necessary Pace
Day 1 137.3 58.8 14.72
Day 2 63.3 17 10.47
 
Second, a comparison between estimation methods over the days:

Long Straight-Line Short Straight-Line Pessimist's Standard Pessimist's Adjusted CURVE
Estimated Point of Success/Failure (11.3 hours in) Success, 21.9 hours Success, 35.9 hours Success, Day 3
Fail, 2,636
Estimated Point of Success/Failure (35 hours in) Success, 47.4 hours Success, 81 hours Success, Final Day Fail, 2,681 Fail, 2,862
 
You'll note that the CURVE estimate has changed somewhat. Turns out that for the last few quests, it hasn't been working properly, since I forgot to add a calculation to my blank quest template. Sorry about that.

Anyways, mixed messages on day two. That sounds about right. I'll be back tomorrow to tell you what the numbers mean.
#13 Posted by BombKareshi (996 posts) -

This does not bode well.
And it's such an easy quest too!

#14 Edited by Trace (3574 posts) -

Graph and stats updated. Our chances of success didn't go flying off a cliff on Cliff Day, but it still looks like we could fall short by a few hundred completions. Not a good sign!

At least I get a chance to try out the new table code with posting daily measurement and prediction stats down here.

Quest Completion Rate Over Time

DayLong-Term PaceShort-Term PaceNecessary Pace

1

137.3

58.8

14.72

2

63.3

17

10.47

3

41.9

10

9.66

Estimations of Success Over Time

Update PointLong Straight-LineShort Straight-LinePessimist's Estimation, StandardPessimist's Estimation, AdjustedCURVE

11.3 hours in

Succeed in 21.9 hours

Succeed in 35.9 hours

Succeed on Day 3

Fail, 2636

35 hours in

Succeed in 47.4 hours

Succeed in 81 hours

Succeed on Day 5

Fail, 2681

Fail, 2862

60.2 hours in

Succeed in 71.7 hours

Succeed in 108.1 hours

Fail, 2813

Fail, 2726

Fail, 2893

Another update tomorrow.

#15 Posted by yoshimitz707 (2453 posts) -

Those are some nice tables, Tracy.

Online
#16 Edited by Sparklykiss (1983 posts) -
@yoshimitz707 said:

" Those are some nice tables, Tracy. "

I'd take that back if I were you.
These new tables and the graph color scheme are just too much for me to handle. It's like everything is changing, oh god.
Moderator
#17 Posted by yoshimitz707 (2453 posts) -
@Sparklykiss said:
" @yoshimitz707 said:

" Those are some nice tables, Tracy. "

I'd take that back if I were you.
These new tables and the graph color scheme are just too much for me to handle. It's like everything is changing, oh god. "
Tracy doesn't scare me!!
Online
#18 Posted by ch3burashka (5113 posts) -

I like stats too, but I'm afraid you have a problem...

#19 Posted by Trace (3574 posts) -

Graph and stats updated once again. Completions tanked today, which is a day later than usual. I'd try to find a minor victory in that, but I really can't. We need just over 300 more completions for a relatively easy quest, and it appears we're set to fall just short.

Here's a few tables of our progress over time.

Pace Comparison

DayLong-Term PaceShort-Term PaceNecessary Pace
1137.358.814.72
263.31710.47
341.9109.66
4325.912.34

Estimation Model Comparison

Update PointLong Straight-LineShort Straight-LinePessimist's StandardPessimist's AdjustedCURVE
11.3 hours inSucceed in 21.9 hoursSucceed in 35.9 hoursSucceed on Day 3N/AFail, 2636
35 hours inSucceed in 47.4 hoursSucceed in 81 hoursSucceed on Day 5Fail, 2681Fail, 2862
60.2 hours inSucceed in 71.7 hoursSucceed in 108.1 hoursFail, 2813Fail, 2726Fail, 2893
83.8 hours inSucceed in 93.8 hoursFail, 2832Fail, 2775Fail, 2762Fail, 2815
#20 Posted by Chaser324 (6651 posts) -

Looks like we're doing a bit better than your projections from yesterday. We might actually pull through and get this thing complete.

Moderator
#21 Posted by Video_Game_King (36272 posts) -
@Chaser324 said:
Looks like we're doing a bit better than your projections from yesterday. We might actually pull through and get this thing complete.
Eh, I've my doubts. I expect the next update to feature us crashing through the red line.
#22 Posted by Chaser324 (6651 posts) -
@Video_Game_King
Meh...you're probably right. We've only got to average about 7 completions per hour from here on out, but I guess most people that were going to complete it probably already have.
Moderator
#23 Edited by Trace (3574 posts) -
@Chaser324: @Video_Game_King: ...actually, I just realized that even though the exact ending time is listed in the quest box and I have looked at it multiple times, I somehow set my stats to end tonight. Unless that changed when I wasn't looking, I made an unbelievably dumb error and took away 24 hours from our quest's lifespan. Our chances of success aren't suddenly through the roof, but it's almost certainly going to come down to the wire now.

Chaser's estimation, based on my 11:24 PM EDT reading, is spot-on. We only need to exceed 7 completions an hour to succeed, and our completion rate is hovering just above and below that range. I'll have fixed statistics for this, including new rate/estimation tables, in a little while.

EDIT: OK, graph and stats updated. Our final day tomorrow should be quite interesting, as it seems the 3,000 user goal was perfectly picked. It's going to be close.

Here's some updated tables, showing our progress and my estimations over time.

Pace Over Time

Day Long-Term Pace Short-Term Pace Necessary Pace
1 137.3 58.8 11.84
2 63.3 17.0 7.92
3 41.9 10.0 6.50
4 32.0 5.9 6.41
5 26.1 5.7 7.07
 

Estimations Over Time

Update Point Long Straight-Line Short Straight-Line Pessimist's Standard Pessimist's Adjusted CURVE
11.3 hours in Succeed in 21.9 hours Succeed in 35.9 hours Succeed on Day 3 N/A Fail, 2639
35 hours in Succeed in 47.4 hours Succeed in 81 hours Succeed on Day 5 Fail, 2704 Fail, 2928
60.2 hours in Succeed in 71.7 hours Succeed in 108.1 hours Fail, 2878 Fail, 2755 Succeed in final hour
83.8 hours in Succeed in 93.8 hours Fail, 2973 Fail, 2832 Fail, 2805 Fail, 2913
107.7 hours in Succeed in 114.8 hours Fail, 2965 Fail, 2898 Fail, 2933 Fail, 2957
 
Final stats tomorrow night, at far too late an hour.
#24 Posted by Erik (386 posts) -

12 hours to get 101 more completions.

#25 Posted by ZombiePie (5710 posts) -

There are now only 100 slots left...get them while they are still hot!

Moderator
#26 Posted by Video_Game_King (36272 posts) -
@ZombiePie said:

There are now only 100 slots left...get them while they are still hot!

I'm calling it right now: we're going to fail this.
#27 Posted by Nate_is_my_fake_name (133 posts) -

#2911 to finish!

I can't believe that MP one gave me so much trouble.

#28 Posted by ZombiePie (5710 posts) -

@Video_Game_King said:

@ZombiePie said:

There are now only 100 slots left...get them while they are still hot!

I'm calling it right now: we're going to fail this.

Since your response only 15 more people have completed the quest....yup our odds are bad.

Moderator
#29 Posted by Erik (386 posts) -

9 hours to go and we need 77 more.

#30 Posted by BoneChompski (221 posts) -

Only 73 more now.  Dig deep, hold fast and don't bust an o-ring.

#31 Posted by laserbolts (5331 posts) -
I'd do it but I can't figure it out.
#32 Posted by Trace (3574 posts) -

Based on my latest readings at 7:00 PM EDT, with 8 hours to go, it's still very much a toss-up. The short-term straight-line prediction currently estimates victory shortly after midnight EDT, but it's been predicting that we'd fall short by 25-50 completions in several measurements. My curved estimation's fluctuating all the same, though it's currently predicting success around the same time frame.

The Arbitrary Estimation of Success is currently 63.4%. Our final outcome is going to be very dependent on whether completions drop off as we head into the later nighttime hours. It's very close, though we're still hovering above the necessary pace (the soonest we could fall below the pace would be at midnight, assuming completions somehow flat-lined).

#33 Posted by ZombiePie (5710 posts) -

@PsEG: There are less than 10 more slots to go!

We can do this!

Moderator
#34 Posted by Video_Game_King (36272 posts) -
#35 Posted by Slaker117 (4843 posts) -
@Video_Game_King said:
@ZombiePie said:

@PsEG: There are less than 10 more slots to go!

We can do this!

But we probably won't!
Fuck you. Three more. We have this. We have to have this.
#36 Posted by BeachThunder (12096 posts) -

^__^ ok, I did it 2997

Online
#37 Posted by ZombiePie (5710 posts) -

@Slaker117 said:

@Video_Game_King said:
@ZombiePie said:

@PsEG: There are less than 10 more slots to go!

We can do this!

But we probably won't!
Fuck you. Three more. We have this. We have to have this.

We did it. Mission accomplished.

Moderator
#38 Posted by Trace (3574 posts) -

Indeed, we've done it! This final hours of this quest also confirm my theory that the closer we are to the goal, the faster the pace picks up. In this case, it was an exponential growth. With one hundred completions left, our pace picked up slightly to get back into double digits. By the final ten completions, the short-term completion rate had picked up to 31.8 completions per hour.

Anyways, very well done, everyone. I'll have final stats and the completed graph up sometime later tonight.

#39 Posted by Slaker117 (4843 posts) -
@ZombiePie:
^_^
As a gamer, my unhealthy and obsessive need to see a bar fill up has been satisfied.
#40 Posted by BoneChompski (221 posts) -

WOOOOOO ZICTORY!!!!

#41 Posted by Mento (2698 posts) -

There's something backwards about a Quest involving Brink looking like a failure right up until the deadline, whereupon it becomes a success.

Moderator
#42 Posted by TheSmashing (313 posts) -

Congrats dudes, well done 

#43 Posted by Derachi (96 posts) -
@Mento said:
There's something backwards about a Quest involving Brink looking like a failure right up until the deadline, whereupon it becomes a success.
#44 Posted by Trace (3574 posts) -

@Mento said:

There's something backwards about a Quest involving Brink looking like a failure right up until the deadline, whereupon it becomes a success.

This comment is truer than it has any right to be.

Anyways, final stats and graph are up! Nothing surprising, really. Let's look at the final estimation table again:

Update PointLong Straight-LineShort Straight-LinePessimist's StandardPessimist's AdjustedCURVE
11.3 hours inSucceed in 21.9 hoursSucceed in 35.9 hoursSucceed on Day 3N/AFail, 2639
35 hours inSucceed in 47.4 hoursSucceed in 81 hoursSucceed on Day 5Fail, 2704Fail, 2928
60.2 hours inSucceed in 71.7 hoursSucceed in 108.1 hoursFail, 2878Fail, 2755Succeed in final hour
83.8 hours inSucceed in 93.8 hoursFail, 2973Fail, 2832Fail, 2805Fail, 2913
107.7 hours inSucceed in 114.8 hoursFail, 2965Fail, 2898Fail, 2933Fail, 2957

The CURVE estimate appears to have done the best job of predicting how close this quest would be. The estimation model with the worst success? The Pessimist's Adjusted numbers. It apparently predicted way too much of a constant decrease. Imagine that, given its name.

Also, fun facts I didn't feel like adding to the first post: The first person to complete this quest set was IllegalizePelvicThrusts. benjaebe was indeed Mr. 3,000 in finishing the set and giving us our bonus XP. Sadly, damswedon just missed out, finishing as #3,001.

OK, this quest's over. I'm PsEG, and we're done here. See you next time with lots of pointless numbers and graphs!

#45 Posted by yoshimitz707 (2453 posts) -

How did you get so good at graphs?

Online
#46 Posted by BombKareshi (996 posts) -

Great! Personally, I'm amazed that we made it. I guess I never thought of the "final rush" as a significant factor. I certainly did not expect it to push us to our goal in the final half-hour. It seems 3000 completions was indeed the perfect goal for this quest. Thanks for keeping us up to date, PsEG!

#47 Posted by OldGuy (1567 posts) -
@PsEG: Nice!

But now I'm wondering how you make a Noir (why they have an 'e' on the end - which defines as a quarter note [maybe the game is really all about music and we just don't see that?] - I have no idea) graph pretty... :-)
#48 Posted by UnsolvedParadox (1863 posts) -

Whew, seems like we barely made it.