Posted by Trace (3543 posts) -

So it begins. Two community quests, running at the same time. Trenched and Hot Summer Jamz, working together and against one another for our goals and bonus XP.

...well, OK. In all honesty, I've noticed that the Trenched community quest may have been cut a little short so that it could disappear from the front page and be replaced with this new summer-themed quest. Its deadline was moved forward. Maybe Brad Muir called in a favor after my muckraking write-up in the previous quest stats post. Regardless, I doubt we'd get that bonus XP even if it hits 3,000 completions.

Forget about that. Let's push on with its stats anyways, and see what happens when a community quest disappears from broad daylight, shall we?

Here's your graph this time around. Prepare for Double Graphvision™!

Leavin' Me In The Trenches AND Summer Jamz! Progress as of July 2nd, 3:06 AM EDT

For the Trenched quest set, the yellow line is its 3,000 user goal, the red line's the average pace needed to succeed, and the green line's the progress thus far.

For Summer Jamz!, the blue line's the 4,000 user goal, the pinkish line is the minimum average pace needed to succeed, and the orange line is the progress thus far.

Double Statsvision™? Sorry, that'd be a bit complex to look at. Maybe you're willing to settle for a bunch of bullet points for Summer Jamz followed by tables for Leavin' Me In The Trenches? Great. Awesome.

Summer Jamz! stats of the last graph update:

  • We're 85.6 hours in, with about 71.9 hours to go.
  • As of the last update, we needed to exceed an average of 19.1 completions per hour to succeed.
  • Currently, we're averaging 23.9 completions per hour overall, with a short-term completion rate of 4 completions per hour.
  • From this point forward, we need to exceed 27.16 completions per hour on average to succeed.
  • If our short-term rate (4 cph) remained stable, we'd fail, attaining only 2.332 completions.
  • My CURVE Estimate continues to predict miserable failure, with only 2,253 to 2,297 completions at quest's end.
  • My Arbitrary Estimate of Success or whatever I call it says 33.24%.
  • Summer Jamz! was put up during the Trenched community quest because of complaints regarding some of the Trenched quests being either difficult or seemingly incomplete. Interestingly enough, check out the comparisons of the two quests:
Leavin' Me In The Trenches and Summer Jamz! COMPARISON as of July 2nd, 3:06 AM EDT
  • While the Trenched quest ended up failing, the Summer Jamz! set continues to do even worse. Around this same update point, Trenched had roughly 2,455 completions.

Trenched Quest Table

Estimates Over Time - Final

Update PointLong Straight-LineShort Straight-LinePessimist's StandardPessimist's AdjustedCURVE
13.8 hours inSucceed, 31.4 hoursSucceed, 59.1 hoursSucceed, Day 5N/AFail, 2088
37.8 hours inSucceed, 60.0 hoursSucceed, 111.8 hoursFail, 2678Fail, 2312Fail, 2661
61.8 hours inSucceed, 85.0 hoursFail, 2929Fail, 2563Fail, 2466Fail, 2507
85.8 hours inSucceed, 104.9 hoursSucceed, 176.6 hoursFail, 2776Succeed, Day 7Fail, 2893
109.8 hours inSucceed, 122.9 hoursSucceed, 147.2 hoursFail, 2896Succeed, Day 7Succeed, 3314
130.8 hours inSucceed, 142.5 hoursFail, 2790Fail, 2843Fail, 2791Fail, 2782
154.9 hours inSucceed, 167.8 hoursFail, 2783Fail, 2784Fail, 2774Fail, 2781

The estimate that was the most accurate in regards to the final outcome (2,785) for each update point is in bold.

Questions, comments, or criticisms about these stats? Please, as always, don't hesitate to post in here and let me know.

I'll be back tomorrow with an overwhelming, confusing set of stats. See you then!

Moderator
#1 Edited by Trace (3543 posts) -

So it begins. Two community quests, running at the same time. Trenched and Hot Summer Jamz, working together and against one another for our goals and bonus XP.

...well, OK. In all honesty, I've noticed that the Trenched community quest may have been cut a little short so that it could disappear from the front page and be replaced with this new summer-themed quest. Its deadline was moved forward. Maybe Brad Muir called in a favor after my muckraking write-up in the previous quest stats post. Regardless, I doubt we'd get that bonus XP even if it hits 3,000 completions.

Forget about that. Let's push on with its stats anyways, and see what happens when a community quest disappears from broad daylight, shall we?

Here's your graph this time around. Prepare for Double Graphvision™!

Leavin' Me In The Trenches AND Summer Jamz! Progress as of July 2nd, 3:06 AM EDT

For the Trenched quest set, the yellow line is its 3,000 user goal, the red line's the average pace needed to succeed, and the green line's the progress thus far.

For Summer Jamz!, the blue line's the 4,000 user goal, the pinkish line is the minimum average pace needed to succeed, and the orange line is the progress thus far.

Double Statsvision™? Sorry, that'd be a bit complex to look at. Maybe you're willing to settle for a bunch of bullet points for Summer Jamz followed by tables for Leavin' Me In The Trenches? Great. Awesome.

Summer Jamz! stats of the last graph update:

  • We're 85.6 hours in, with about 71.9 hours to go.
  • As of the last update, we needed to exceed an average of 19.1 completions per hour to succeed.
  • Currently, we're averaging 23.9 completions per hour overall, with a short-term completion rate of 4 completions per hour.
  • From this point forward, we need to exceed 27.16 completions per hour on average to succeed.
  • If our short-term rate (4 cph) remained stable, we'd fail, attaining only 2.332 completions.
  • My CURVE Estimate continues to predict miserable failure, with only 2,253 to 2,297 completions at quest's end.
  • My Arbitrary Estimate of Success or whatever I call it says 33.24%.
  • Summer Jamz! was put up during the Trenched community quest because of complaints regarding some of the Trenched quests being either difficult or seemingly incomplete. Interestingly enough, check out the comparisons of the two quests:
Leavin' Me In The Trenches and Summer Jamz! COMPARISON as of July 2nd, 3:06 AM EDT
  • While the Trenched quest ended up failing, the Summer Jamz! set continues to do even worse. Around this same update point, Trenched had roughly 2,455 completions.

Trenched Quest Table

Estimates Over Time - Final

Update PointLong Straight-LineShort Straight-LinePessimist's StandardPessimist's AdjustedCURVE
13.8 hours inSucceed, 31.4 hoursSucceed, 59.1 hoursSucceed, Day 5N/AFail, 2088
37.8 hours inSucceed, 60.0 hoursSucceed, 111.8 hoursFail, 2678Fail, 2312Fail, 2661
61.8 hours inSucceed, 85.0 hoursFail, 2929Fail, 2563Fail, 2466Fail, 2507
85.8 hours inSucceed, 104.9 hoursSucceed, 176.6 hoursFail, 2776Succeed, Day 7Fail, 2893
109.8 hours inSucceed, 122.9 hoursSucceed, 147.2 hoursFail, 2896Succeed, Day 7Succeed, 3314
130.8 hours inSucceed, 142.5 hoursFail, 2790Fail, 2843Fail, 2791Fail, 2782
154.9 hours inSucceed, 167.8 hoursFail, 2783Fail, 2784Fail, 2774Fail, 2781

The estimate that was the most accurate in regards to the final outcome (2,785) for each update point is in bold.

Questions, comments, or criticisms about these stats? Please, as always, don't hesitate to post in here and let me know.

I'll be back tomorrow with an overwhelming, confusing set of stats. See you then!

Moderator
#2 Posted by Video_Game_King (35795 posts) -

Speaking of summer jams...
 
  

  
 
I was just looking for an excuse to post this video. To quote Futurama, "you watched it; you can't unwatch it."
#3 Posted by Mento (2413 posts) -

The new quest is considerably easier (which is a good thing), but 4000 has always been an insurmountable goal, has it not?
 
Liking the Bayside High colors regardless.

Moderator
#4 Posted by Trace (3543 posts) -

@Mento said:

4000 has always been an insurmountable goal, has it not?

That it has. Aside from the quest system's humble beginnings (if memory serves), we've never successfully reached a completion target 4,000 or higher.

Moderator
#5 Posted by Subjugation (4714 posts) -

Someone likes their math. Oh statistics, I shall remember thee fondly only in retrospect.

#6 Posted by Sparklykiss (1933 posts) -

I'm going to pretend that the Summer Jamz! is purple and orange just for me. (All of your graphs should be purple and orange. Much more magical that way!)

Moderator
#7 Posted by Trace (3543 posts) -

Graph and stats updated. There's not going to be much for me to say, but do have a look at the second graph in the first post. Summer Jamz! is surprisingly performing worse than the Trenched quest set. Is it community quest burnout, do people care that much about Trenched, or is it something crazy like people enjoying quests in which they struggle? I cannot say.

Regardless, here are some tables for Summer Jamz!

Summer Jamz! Daily Tables

Completion Rate Over Time

DayLong-Term PaceShort-Term PaceNecessary Pace
1101.236.019.98
247.811.519.10

Estimations Over Time

Update PointLong Straight-LineShort Straight-LinePessimist's StandardPessimist's AdjustedCURVE
10.5 hours inSucceed, 39.5 hoursSucceed, 92.1 hoursFail, 2586N/AFail, 1629
34.6 hours inSucceed, 83.8 hoursFail, 3071Fail, 2467Fail, 2337Fail, 2134

More updates tomorrow!

Moderator
#8 Posted by BombKareshi (996 posts) -

It looks like the Trenched quest is going to fail just short of its goal because of the new quest.
 
That just totally sucks, man. Couldn't they have waited a day or two with Summer Jamz?

#9 Posted by Video_Game_King (35795 posts) -

I'm guessing that there haven't been updates in a few days because the community is failing pretty bad on at least one of them, right?

#10 Posted by Trace (3543 posts) -

@Video_Game_King said:

I'm guessing that there haven't been updates in a few days because the community is failing pretty bad on at least one of them, right?

Actually, being busy with Giant Bomb Forza Race Night, real-life happenings, and joining Halo: Reach community night put all of this on the backburner for a short while.

Regardless, the Trenched quest has finished what was originally its allotted time, and it has fallen short of the 3,000 user goal by 215 completions. Yesterday, Summer Jamz! fell below the average pace it needs to succeed.

Make no mistake: These quests are doomed.

Moderator
#11 Posted by Video_Game_King (35795 posts) -

So technically, I was sorta right, in some capacity :P?

#12 Posted by BombKareshi (996 posts) -

I feel kind of cheated on the Trenched quest now.

#13 Posted by PatVB (328 posts) -

Hey I'm sure you get asked this all the time, but where do you get the data for quest completion? I'm interested in looking at the stats for some of the quests in Screened.

#14 Posted by Trace (3543 posts) -

@pat4327: For the most part, all of my data and stats come from viewing the community quest tracker and jotting down how far along it is at various times in a specially-designed Excel file. If the community quest's no longer visible on the front page, sometimes I'll track this through a special page coonce made on each of the sites way back when (although said page is somewhat broken, so I have to navigate to each community quest by number; for example, here's the one that's live right now).

If you want me to send you a copy of the Excel file so you can try your hand at putting together Screened quest stats, I'd be glad to fire it your way, so don't hesitate to ask.

Moderator