So it begins. Two community quests, running at the same time. Trenched and Hot Summer Jamz, working together and against one another for our goals and bonus XP.
...well, OK. In all honesty, I've noticed that the Trenched community quest may have been cut a little short so that it could disappear from the front page and be replaced with this new summer-themed quest. Its deadline was moved forward. Maybe Brad Muir called in a favor after my muckraking write-up in the previous quest stats post. Regardless, I doubt we'd get that bonus XP even if it hits 3,000 completions.
Forget about that. Let's push on with its stats anyways, and see what happens when a community quest disappears from broad daylight, shall we?
Here's your graph this time around. Prepare for Double Graphvision™!
For the Trenched quest set, the yellow line is its 3,000 user goal, the red line's the average pace needed to succeed, and the green line's the progress thus far.
For Summer Jamz!, the blue line's the 4,000 user goal, the pinkish line is the minimum average pace needed to succeed, and the orange line is the progress thus far.
Double Statsvision™? Sorry, that'd be a bit complex to look at. Maybe you're willing to settle for a bunch of bullet points for Summer Jamz followed by tables for Leavin' Me In The Trenches? Great. Awesome.
Summer Jamz! stats of the last graph update:
- We're 85.6 hours in, with about 71.9 hours to go.
- As of the last update, we needed to exceed an average of 19.1 completions per hour to succeed.
- Currently, we're averaging 23.9 completions per hour overall, with a short-term completion rate of 4 completions per hour.
- From this point forward, we need to exceed 27.16 completions per hour on average to succeed.
- If our short-term rate (4 cph) remained stable, we'd fail, attaining only 2.332 completions.
- My CURVE Estimate continues to predict miserable failure, with only 2,253 to 2,297 completions at quest's end.
- My Arbitrary Estimate of Success or whatever I call it says 33.24%.
- Summer Jamz! was put up during the Trenched community quest because of complaints regarding some of the Trenched quests being either difficult or seemingly incomplete. Interestingly enough, check out the comparisons of the two quests:
- While the Trenched quest ended up failing, the Summer Jamz! set continues to do even worse. Around this same update point, Trenched had roughly 2,455 completions.
Trenched Quest Table
Estimates Over Time - Final
|Update Point||Long Straight-Line||Short Straight-Line||Pessimist's Standard||Pessimist's Adjusted||CURVE|
|13.8 hours in||Succeed, 31.4 hours||Succeed, 59.1 hours||Succeed, Day 5||N/A||Fail, 2088|
|37.8 hours in||Succeed, 60.0 hours||Succeed, 111.8 hours||Fail, 2678||Fail, 2312||Fail, 2661|
|61.8 hours in||Succeed, 85.0 hours||Fail, 2929||Fail, 2563||Fail, 2466||Fail, 2507|
|85.8 hours in||Succeed, 104.9 hours||Succeed, 176.6 hours||Fail, 2776||Succeed, Day 7||Fail, 2893|
|109.8 hours in||Succeed, 122.9 hours||Succeed, 147.2 hours||Fail, 2896||Succeed, Day 7||Succeed, 3314|
|130.8 hours in||Succeed, 142.5 hours||Fail, 2790||Fail, 2843||Fail, 2791||Fail, 2782|
|154.9 hours in||Succeed, 167.8 hours||Fail, 2783||Fail, 2784||Fail, 2774||Fail, 2781|
The estimate that was the most accurate in regards to the final outcome (2,785) for each update point is in bold.
Questions, comments, or criticisms about these stats? Please, as always, don't hesitate to post in here and let me know.
I'll be back tomorrow with an overwhelming, confusing set of stats. See you then!