A research and consultancy firm predicts that the boxed retail version of Grand Theft Auto V will not include a disc.

Surprise! It's not Michael Pachter! No, this one comes from Newzoo, "an international full service market research and consulting firm completely focused on the games industry," and it's so out-of-left-field that even Mr. Pach Attack himself probably wouldn't go near it.

"There are a lot of reasons why publishers are pushing towards digital distribution of triple-A games. Speaking out loud might harm the relationship with retail partners, but the benefits have become too large to remain silent about the desire to go completely digital," Newzoo CEO Peter Warman said in a recent report on DLC. "The ultimate objective being to launch games faster, create continuous revenues on a title and simply to make more money. Will retail disappear from the picture? Of course not. Retail will always remain an important channel to promote and distribute games. Retail has a strong hand to play when it comes to eyeballs and... boxes make a nice gift."

And then he gets to the interesting bit. "Boxed games will not disappear, but what is in the box will," he continued. "That is why the boxed GTA V version will contain a collectible piece of merchandise and a download code. No disc."

No disc? That's a bold prediction. I'm not an expert [or even an analyst] but I think it's a bit premature; as hard as it is for some people to believe, a significant portion of the population still lives in areas where high-volume digital distribution is impractical at best. It's one thing to activate a game online or connection to a DRM server, but another thing entirely to download a multi-gigabyte game in its entirety over a connection that may be throttled, capped or just plain crappy.

Those most reliant on retail channels for their games, in other words, tend to be the same people who can't just take home a code and download them, while most of those who can will just order them from home. That leaves a very narrow slice of gamers who are dedicated enough to their title of choice to cruise to the mall and lay down their money for some extra room-cluttering junk, just so they can turn around and drive home to actually get their game. Maybe someday, for some titles, but today? I just don't see it happening.

This says more about The Escapist than the analyst. Ask Alex, he likely got this exact same press release trying to build up name recognition for some unheard of analyst and yet he avoided publishing it.

Analysts come up with such shit.

"No one has a PC faster than a PS3." ...this shit still cracks me up.

This is one of the most ridiculous forecast I've seen, what makes it worse is that this company focuses on the game industry.

Not in this generation, but in the latter stages of the next, I think it's a certainty. The big guns have put too much money into it for it to fall flat, and for them, there are obvious advantages to this sort of thing.

It's an interesting thought. All digital is already possible, but the lack a infrastructure in terms of high speed bandwidth prevent it from being a reality.

Lots of people still don't have their consoles hooked up to the net. Publishers cannot forgo those sales.

This is how I reacted:

Clueless analyst. The market is not ready for digital-only merchandise yet, in part because of retailer influence and also because the system manufacturers have screwed up their own stuff. If this were (theoretically) to happen then there would be literally hundreds of thousands of pissed off customers who could not redeem their code or download the game.

maybe they meant for PC? that's still dumb though

The fact that Rockstar had to release their formally all-digital expansions to GTA IV on disk shows that we are not quite ready for an download only console reality yet.

I wish I had more hands for this facepalm.

it wont be DD only. but it will have online connections, DRM and an online pass

@Hitchenson said:

Analysts come up with such shit.

"No one has a PC faster than a PS3." ...this shit still cracks me up.

Truth be told, I was actually surprised Pachter wasn't the analyst with dumb predictions and statements this time around.

@Metal_Mills: What really sold this topic was the

Heh..haha-hahahaha

in the title. Made me laugh.

Michael Pachter's tweeted this in response the claim

Re:http://bit.ly/sIqzV1 it is not possible that GTA V is digital download only, ZERO probability. 40% of 360s sold have 20Gb or smaller HDD

Well its got to happen someday but, I don't think this is it

Oh analysts. I think this one definitely beats out Pachter's "PS3 is faster than any PC" and "RTS games are kinda turn-based" comments.

Thanks. I needed a good laugh today.

I can't see the high-street retailers allowing it to happen either, they pay a lot for those pre-order bonuses to keep people from buying online. Can you imagine how pissed they'd be if Rockstar told them it's download only? It'd be funny though.

Sigh.

I, on the other hand, predict not only a disc, but a large, full color instruction book, and a full sized map of the game's area. And you can quote me on this.

Just wow.

Putting the anal back in analyst

@hinderk said:

Michael Pachter's tweeted this in response the claim

Re:http://bit.ly/sIqzV1 it is not possible that GTA V is digital download only, ZERO probability. 40% of 360s sold have 20Gb or smaller HDD

And 90% of those probably have a bigger HDD at home or buy one with them :O He obviously is not that bright and should be fired for not thinking ahead.

I didn't think this was funny before... but you know, it is. It really is.

@hinderk said:

Michael Pachter's tweeted this in response the claim

Re:http://bit.ly/sIqzV1 it is not possible that GTA V is digital download only, ZERO probability. 40% of 360s sold have 20Gb or smaller HDD

And 90% of those probably have a bigger HDD at home or buy one with them :O He obviously is not that bright and should be fired for not thinking ahead.

Digital-only would be great in a perfect world, but Rockstar would be alienating a LARGE chunk of their audience if they took that route. Analysts predict shit all the time, that's what their job is. Being right about it? That's another matter.

@MooseyMcMan said:

Sigh.

I, on the other hand, predict not only a disc, but a large, full color instruction book, and a full sized map of the game's area. And you can quote me on this.

QFT

@TaliciaDragonsong said:

No idea why but this cracked me up.

Also this analyst should stick to analyzing things he/she has any amount of experience with.

Yea cant see GTA5 doing it, but I can see the industry making a shift to all digital. It would kill the 2nd hand market which is what they really want. Would almost be worth it to, if it gets rid of on line pass, and shovel ware DLC.

stupid idea not going to happen but.....if any game could do it AND SUCCEED it would be gta ...think about it. it would solve the problem with used games

Try again with the next gen.

@Axxol said:

I wish I had more hands for this facepalm.

You can have mine. You'll just have to pull it out of my head first LMAO.

Fuck. My giant collection needs discs. The day that the world goes digital only is the day that I stop adding modern games to my GB list.

That's so Takei...