@WinterSnowblind said:
@Jams said:
It's not even out yet...
@LethalKi11ler said:
I'm excited, the game is nearing release and the media attention is pretty high. I smell success! *knocks on wood*
That was exactly the same for The Old Republic. And we all know how that turned out.
None of the games are out yet, that's the point. It's like a "best of E3" vote but for Gamescom.
People have spent a large amount of time in the beta at this point though. It may not be a game for everyone, I personally see it more as the anti-WoW, rather than a game directly competing with it. But I don't see it turning out like TOR. People realised that was crap after the closed beta's. Let's not forget that 7 years on, GW1 is still going strong and is one of the most popular online games out there.
Guild Wars 2 cannot repeat TOR's miserable failure, because it has a completely different business model. The core game has already met sales expectations months ago, mere weeks after starting their pre-purchase program.
I'd estimate NCsoft/ArenaNet has already sold between 1-3 million copies of GW2 in the Western markets. WoW usually sells around 4-5 million copies in these markets, and I suspect Guild Wars 2 can do better than that, because its subscription free business model is opening up the prospective audience immensely. I presume GW2's sales potential in the Western markets to be around 10 millions copies sold within its first year. Retaining between 4-8 million customers for their first expansion, and upkeep sustainabilty of their business model for GW2 for at least a decade.
In the longrun, it depends on how well GW2 is received by the consumers, because its sustainability comes down to how many customers it can retain, and keep happy and hungry for future content. From what I've played, GW2 should easily grab and hold around 4 million customers for the next decade or so. In other words, if Guild Wars 2 is as good as it seems to me, they'll be guaranteed big sales numbers for a long time. Seeing how they're smart about the cash shop, that'll certainly also generate good income too.
So yeah - Guild Wars 2 cannot fail like TOR failed, because TOR has already lost sustainability, at least for the grandest plans EA/Bioware had for it - whilst GW2 already is way past its target sales for the core game, and is not reliant on subscription fees, just repeat business and an active community. Seeing how you can't beat 'free', that's not going to be a problem.
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