The Lincolncast, Episode 17: Sink or Swim

#1 Edited by selfconfessedcynic (2562 posts) -

The Lincolncast, Episode 17: Sink or Swim

Hey guys! For those who don't know, this is the Giant Bomb community's Guild Wars 2 podcast (made by our guild, Lincoln Force).

6 days to go. 6 days to go! We spend this ep. chatting about what we've been doing to carry us through these last few breaths before the big plunge, followed by a lengthy discussion about how we think Guild Wars 2 will fare over the next 9 months. Will the game sink or swim? Don't come in expecting a fanboy-fest, we're surprisingly level headed about the entire affair.

Also, subscribe to the show!

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Streaming Embed (audio only):

Show Notes

Intro music: "The Pentagon" by The Hamster Alliance

Featured Members: , , , ,

Run time: 3:27:33

Topics for the week:

  • We're still planning on podcasting live every week, Fridays at 9PM US Eastern (unless otherwise stated)
  • For the first half hour Dourin explains his many failings, Noob creeps us all the way out, Zoomy's been hanging out with some dude named Wei and Shinboy really likes skull masks.
  • This week in news, crazy old Blizzard's at it again, Arenanet is one massive troll and more stress tests!
  • We put our speculation hats and boxing gloves on for this week's discussion: "Will Guild Wars 2 be successful?"
  • Tune in for our guesses at initial sales figures, what the likely challenges are in the near future and what we expect from the game 9 months down the line.

Plugs!

Enjoy! Also, feel free to leave some criticism or feedback - TheLincolncast@gmail.com or @TheLincolncast on Twitter.

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Mobile Site (for streaming):

Hosted by Podbean

#2 Edited by selfconfessedcynic (2562 posts) -

@shinboy630 said:

@Selona83 said:

Since you guys had some trouble with this weeks episode, will it be up on the RSS feed this week at all:)?

Just wondering if I should keep an eye on it or not:)

Thanks!

PS: yay! Launch week!

We re-recorded last night, so it might be up some time today, depending when gets done editing.

@Dourin said:

@Selona83: As pointed out, we rerecorded it last night, and is hard at work on editing. We ran into another snag last night with the recording, so editing is taking longer than possible but it'll absolutely be up on the RSS. May not be today, though. Just depends on how the editing goes.

Goddamn. 7 hours total to edit and get this thing up. I hate mumble, I hate it so fucking much.

It's 3:44am - I AM GOING TO BED.

#3 Posted by Dourin (232 posts) -

@selfconfessedcynic said:

@shinboy630 said:

@Selona83 said:

Since you guys had some trouble with this weeks episode, will it be up on the RSS feed this week at all:)?

Just wondering if I should keep an eye on it or not:)

Thanks!

PS: yay! Launch week!

We re-recorded last night, so it might be up some time today, depending when gets done editing.

@Dourin said:

@Selona83: As pointed out, we rerecorded it last night, and is hard at work on editing. We ran into another snag last night with the recording, so editing is taking longer than possible but it'll absolutely be up on the RSS. May not be today, though. Just depends on how the editing goes.

Goddamn. 7 hours total to edit and get this thing up. I hate mumble, I hate it so fucking much.

It's 3:44am - I AM GOING TO BED.

Well that went up much quicker than I thought! But yeah, with what you told me, I agree. Fuck Mumble. Podcasting software my ass!

#4 Posted by Dark_Lord_Spam (3299 posts) -

@selfconfessedcynic: I think 17 might be an unlucky number for you guys.

#5 Posted by Selona83 (47 posts) -

Jeees...I feel for you. But big thanks for the hard work

Now...go and get some well deserved sleep :P

#6 Posted by craptain (13 posts) -

Really dude? you couldn't post this at the BEGINNING of my work day?

Damn.

#7 Posted by Maystack (906 posts) -

@selfconfessedcynic: After the first four hours I would have given up. You do so much great work on the podcast, I applaud you.

#8 Posted by shinboy630 (1139 posts) -

According to WoodenPotatoes (in this recent GW2 countdown video) Anet added something that sounds a lot like a costume system to the Gem Store. I will expect the cheques from Anet to arrive at my door within a few weeks.

#9 Posted by Dark_Lord_Spam (3299 posts) -

@shinboy630: I don't know, if they spin it to seem like you copied their idea from GW1, that envelope might contain a wad of court summons instead.

#10 Posted by selfconfessedcynic (2562 posts) -

*Yaaaaawn* - man, slept in till 11ish.

Feelin' good. Thanks everyone!

@Dark_Lord_Spam said:

@shinboy630: I don't know, if they spin it to seem like you copied their idea from GW1, that envelope might contain a wad of court summons instead.

The man's got a point! : D

#11 Posted by shinboy630 (1139 posts) -
@selfconfessedcynic

*Yaaaaawn* - man, slept in till 11ish.

Feelin' good. Thanks everyone!

@Dark_Lord_Spam said:

@shinboy630: I don't know, if they spin it to seem like you copied their idea from GW1, that envelope might contain a wad of court summons instead.

The man's got a point! : D

I never made any money off of it so they can't really sue me. If anything I can sue them for stealing my idea for gw2! I will accept all compensation in the form of gems and/or minipets.
#12 Posted by ZoomyRamen (237 posts) -

It was my fault for not recording on my end. I apologise to everyone.

#13 Posted by selfconfessedcynic (2562 posts) -

@ZoomyRamen said:

It was my fault for not recording on my end. I apologise to everyone.

Ehh - of the two, Mumble is SO much worse.

Wouldn't have been a problem if we did the episode over skype - the mumble recordings lose 1 second of sync at unknown intervals for no apparent reason, so mixing the audio streams involved me scrubbing through the whole episode multiple times to check and recheck sync.

In the end, I didn't have enough time to make everyone sound as good as they usually do.

We're never using mumble again for an audio-only show.

#14 Posted by pay928 (26 posts) -
#15 Posted by CatsAkimbo (625 posts) -

In a previous podcast, there was some confusion about the gem store, and in this one, someone mentions buying gem store items with in-game gold, which isn't entirely accurate. Tera has something somewhat similar, and it took this explanation for me to wrap my head around it:

In a basic sense, when you buy something in the gem store for in-game gold, you're paying someone else to buy the item for you.

So while it's true that you personally can gather enough gold to buy gems to buy gem store items, in a larger conversation about how Arenanet is making money, someone is still paying real money for that item.

It's really a real-world money transfer system that's controlled and limited by Arenanet, because it lets people exchange real money for in-game gold by buying gems and selling them. They make the gems worthwhile by having good items in the gem store.

I'm with you guys in that I'm really curious to see how it pans out. I'm wondering if gems will be the new ecto, because it should be an item that retains it's value and shouldn't fluctuate much after the market decides what they're worth. It's pretty ingenious if that's the case, because much like people leaving Microsoft Points on their account, there will be all these "space bucks" floating around that aren't actually being spent, meaning Arenanet makes a lot of money without even delivering goods.

#16 Posted by shinboy630 (1139 posts) -
@CatsAkimbo we know that someone still paid for the gems traded for gold. In fact I believe that was discussed at some length in a previous show.
#17 Edited by CatsAkimbo (625 posts) -

@shinboy630: I know, and you did talk about it, but it wasn't made clear how it all works. That's really part of the point of all this gem business from Arenanet's end, I guess: to obscure where exactly money is going.

#18 Posted by shinboy630 (1139 posts) -
@CatsAkimbo yeah anet haven't told us 100% how everything works. Then again, I wouldn't really expect them too.
#19 Posted by ZoomyRamen (237 posts) -

@CatsAkimbo: I still reckon the market will be way skewed to just coughing up money. The fact that it's all player driven when it comes to gold to gems, makes me believe that will happen more. People who love grinding and grind the shit out of gold maybe alright, but average joe will probably consider his 5 hours worth more than 10 dollars.

#20 Edited by CatsAkimbo (625 posts) -

@ZoomyRamen said:

...average joe will probably consider his 5 hours worth more than 10 dollars.

If those numbers are a lot different, it could totally change though. Even still, if you get lucky and find a rare bow worth $30 in gems, it'd be a lot easier to sink it into gem store stuff.

Even that last sentence I wrote is really weird now that I think about it. Like in Diablo 3, there's a direct comparison: "this gold gauntlet is worth this many dollars on the auction house." If gems take off as a currency, you could say about the same thing; it's just obscured a little more because you have to go through gems first, and there's not an option to "cash out."

#21 Posted by ZoomyRamen (237 posts) -

@CatsAkimbo: True say. It's going to be very interesting. Never played a game with this sort of system before. Or atleast, never played one as much as I will.

#22 Posted by Silvergun (297 posts) -

@CatsAkimbo said:

I'm with you guys in that I'm really curious to see how it pans out. I'm wondering if gems will be the new ecto, because it should be an item that retains it's value and shouldn't fluctuate much after the market decides what they're worth. It's pretty ingenious if that's the case, because much like people leaving Microsoft Points on their account, there will be all these "space bucks" floating around that aren't actually being spent, meaning Arenanet makes a lot of money without even delivering goods.

I kind of doubt it. The only reasons Ectos were needed was because of the 100k gold carrying limit, which was way lower than what high-end trading required. As far as I know, nothing of the sort exists in GW2, so I'm not sure there would be a point. I bet in most cases, when gems get purchased (on the AH), they'll be purchased to be used in the gem store.

#23 Posted by CatsAkimbo (625 posts) -

@Silvergun said:

@CatsAkimbo said:

I'm with you guys in that I'm really curious to see how it pans out. I'm wondering if gems will be the new ecto, because it should be an item that retains it's value and shouldn't fluctuate much after the market decides what they're worth. It's pretty ingenious if that's the case, because much like people leaving Microsoft Points on their account, there will be all these "space bucks" floating around that aren't actually being spent, meaning Arenanet makes a lot of money without even delivering goods.

I kind of doubt it. The only reasons Ectos were needed was because of the 100k gold carrying limit, which was way lower than what high-end trading required. As far as I know, nothing of the sort exists in GW2, so I'm not sure there would be a point. I bet in most cases, when gems get purchased (on the AH), they'll be purchased to be used in the gem store.

Yeah, true. If they were really devious, they'd keep the low money cap on characters. Either way, gems will probably be a decent longterm investment.

#24 Posted by Silvergun (297 posts) -

@CatsAkimbo said:

Yeah, true. If they were really devious, they'd keep the low money cap on characters. Either way, gems will probably be a decent longterm investment.

Well they actually make a good point about this in the podcast. Right at launch, demand for gems will be extremely high since people will want to buy extra character slots, armor, etc. On the other hand, because this is going to be before anybody is 80, the currency is going to be extremely deflated too. If you wanted to invest in some gems, you're going to want to try and hit the sweet spot where descending demand for gems (as people buy the early gem store items they want) meets increasing currency inflation (as people play more and more currency enters the economy). Then again, don't gem prices fluctuate with demand too? If that's the case, it's anybody's guess how that plays out.

#25 Posted by shinboy630 (1139 posts) -

1,000,000 troops

#26 Posted by silentdante (57 posts) -

well i am going to be playing dishonered, borderlands 2, X-com: Enemy Unknown, Assassins creed 3, halo 4, Fifa 13, hitman: absolution, but i also still plan on staying with GW 2 as my MMO, mostly because the PVP is so much different and well done then any other pvp and i have people to play with, which makes a huge deal. and the PVE might be fun too.

as far as being an MMO player i would say i am since i have played them all, and i usualy buy them to see how they handled the systems and interaction, never really for the story, but some have been interesting at least. so i agree that an MMO player might gravitate to this, and also the MESS load of competative players because no other MMO maches PVP like this one.

but also i am a stay at home husband, so it's easier for me to play and MMO and have time for other games too.

#27 Posted by Branwulf (406 posts) -

Just finished listening, was good although there was a bit of entitlement creeping in at the end there with the expansion talk.

#28 Posted by ZoomyRamen (237 posts) -

@Branwulf: How so?

#29 Posted by Branwulf (406 posts) -

Well, "endgame content belongs in free content patches" is entitlement, i'm not saying I disagree, as everyone wants more stuff for free.

#30 Posted by ZoomyRamen (237 posts) -

@Branwulf: I don't think that's entitlement. I think that, basing an expansion or even have a big chunk of an expansion walled off to people is horrible when they have to pay just to get their meager bit of content. I think it's utterly gross to do that.

#31 Posted by Dourin (232 posts) -

@ZoomyRamen: Well, I mean, I hate to say it, but we're talking about a game that, other than expansions, requires zero monetary commitment from the players. So how can you really call it gross if they want to charge for endgame content in expansions?

#32 Posted by ZoomyRamen (237 posts) -

@Dourin: Ok, this will seem scummy in that I'll seem to be backing away. But GW2 is unique. In that it's free. So I'm kind of ok with it, to a certain a degree (I still feel putting non-endgame content with endgame content is kinda harsh on how some people play). I'm more annoyed when it comes to pay to play. Wrath did this badly in that you basically had zero content if you were below level 55, level 55 isn't the hardest thing to get to, but still, I'm paying per month and then you want me to buy an expansion that doesn't have any content for me? I just don't really like it.

#33 Posted by silentdante (57 posts) -

@ZoomyRamen: while i agree with you about the content not being for certain people, those people also have the ability to not buy it until they reach the part of the game that is for them.

so i base if i buy a content expansion based on what i will get over what i cant get. with lich king, i didn't care to play the new class, nor was i max level yet, so i didn't buy it, and with wow, even if you dont buy cataclysm you still got the new world, just not the new races. as far as other MMO's i don't know of any that have expansions you can buy anymore that are part of a pay by month game. i think the basic reason you expand a game is because people have hit the end AND want new stuff to play with. i would totaly pay for cataclysm if i wanted the new races, but i wouldnt for burning crusade unless i was a high enough level to play it.

i have the same type of "disease" where i feel incomplete without owning the expansion, but thats something thats more my problem then the games, unless they offer an expansion that doesn't offer duel things. the ice king expansion is the best example because yeah to have the new class or play the new continent you had ot be high level, but that also means you dont have to buy it until then either.

so if guild wars 2 has an expansion that moves the story along with end game content, but also has new races/professions/gear/other things like the minipet battle arena, then i would buy it even though i might not be end level, because the new races or whatever apeal to me. if they put out a story based end game only expansion i wouldn't buy it unless i lvl'd up, thats kind of easy. usualy they never release one kind without the other though, because it makes more sense to combine things to get someone to buy it that might not be high level yet. but i played wow for about 2 months after cataclysm came out and never felt the need to buy cata either, i didn't miss out, but maybe thats because my mindset changed.

damn i ramble a lot, sorry

#34 Posted by TheHT (11250 posts) -

I'm pretty sure that middle Charr picture is an old painting of a vampire. The one with the arms crossed "deal with it" devil in the back. Also that chart is fantastic.

#35 Posted by ZoomyRamen (237 posts) -

@silentdante: Yeah, I was thinking about it last night. And my point of view changed. I was wrong about having all end game content being free. But they still need to strike a balance in terms of what comes in the expansion. Whilst you could not buy it, I still feel like that is punishing players who choose to play differently to another. Things like new continents for endgame players etc probably should come in expansions, but I feel like you do need to appeal to both. If as a company you can't support both sets of players, why should they support you?

#36 Posted by Dark_Lord_Spam (3299 posts) -

@ZoomyRamen: That's why I assume something like the Cantha expansion will come with a 1-15 zone for the tengu on the Tyrian continent and have most (if not all) of the new region be level 80 content. Though I guess because of level scaling they could actually do a full 1-80 on any new continent they introduce. Hmm.

#37 Posted by silentdante (57 posts) -

@ZoomyRamen: @Dark_Lord_Spam: i would guess that e huge expansion for this game will follow more traditional MMO rules and introduce a new profession or 2, a new race or two, with the new races they will probly have two new starter zones somewhere just like each race has now, then they might add 2-5 new zones for different level intervals with all new heart quests for everyone, maybe even change up or add a couple different events in the old 20-80 zones that would go along with the new storyline, because iw ould think they move the story of the game foreward itself, either making a new "big bad" or keeping the old one with some changes and the reaosns why the new races have decided to join everyone else. they might add a dungeon or 2, and then also add a map or 2 for PVP people, and perhaps a new mechanic for WvW that way they cover most all players and new people. now this does almost make you needing to buy both, but thats sort of the buisness model they are going for now, over selling standalone story content like GW1.

i would say if you bought GW2 base set a year from now, while you might FEEL like you were missing out on some things, it's quite a lot of content so if you weren't comfortable with not owning the new stuff in the 40 dollar expansion you dont HAVE to buy it right away. the way the game scales horizontaly with gear means sure you will miss out on items or perhaps new starter zones, you wont miss out on anything that changes the game like better gear in pvp or WVW since gear doesn't keep going up in stats at the end. they could release it like cataclysm where people who dont buy the expansion still download the new PVP map that way they can stay in queues and things like that, but if you want the new races, starting zones, professions and dungeons you buy it. it's a way of supporting an ongoing development of product to a team, but as a consumer you always have the power to speak with your money on if you think what they provide for the price is worth it. the major issue comes with the fact if your hooked on the game, don't think it's worth the new price but feel like you have to pay anyways cause you "can't miss out". it's kind of like a heroin addict that pays for his drugs 100 a month, then the new heroin comes out and now they want 120 a month, you were fine with the old heroin but damnit all if you dont WANT that new heroin but dont know why you have to pay more for it.... ok maybe a bad annalogy, i don't know i'm just a guy sitting in his living room here...

-silentdante

#38 Posted by selfconfessedcynic (2562 posts) -

On a completely un-serious and unrelated note,

Courtesy of Dourin and his wonderful wife.

#39 Posted by ZoomyRamen (237 posts) -

HOLY CRAP BLUE SPRINKLES THEY EXIST

#40 Posted by Dark_Lord_Spam (3299 posts) -
@selfconfessedcynic: Welp, guess I'm going to spend the next few hours making Cupcake Monsters.
#41 Edited by Maystack (906 posts) -

@selfconfessedcynic: Oh wow someone actually managed to make those without them turning into a giant blue blob? Bravo to the Dourin family.

#42 Posted by Bankrotas (46 posts) -
#43 Posted by ZoomyRamen (237 posts) -

@Bankrotas: Fucking hell aion has made 70 billion...I'd tremble and love to see what WoW has made. 3.1 million is mad. I hope it's true. I want GW2 to be insanely succesful.

#44 Posted by shinboy630 (1139 posts) -
@ZoomyRamen its 70 billion won, not dollars
#45 Posted by ZoomyRamen (237 posts) -

@shinboy630: Oh right...Well still... I'm a fool! :(

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