Lantern Run Stats, Day 2

Posted by PsEG (3491 posts) -
Just Go Right. STILL.

It appears that today will be Brad, Will, Ryan, and Patrick's final attempt to successfully complete the Lantern Run in Insanely Twisted Shadow Planet. With that in mind, I thought it'd be best to look back at their attempts on the second day and analyze what went right and wrong. If you're interested in day one statistics, check those out here and here.

As a reminder, here is the criteria for success:

  • Reach the ninth "arena" in the path. Completion of the ninth arena isn't necessary.
  • Earn 1,000,000 points in a single run.

With that established, let's look at day two's basic statistics to start.

Run Tally

AttemptArenasDurationFinal ScoreDistance ScoreBrad's ScoreWill's ScorePatrick's ScoreRyan's Score
946:44420,77818890063638581885522954823
1023:49261,40910630040026428893790234292
1146:47480,23820950096768597095900055261
1223:25267,84110740057089341723418334997
1369:18684,068280500926091273409205191568
1468:24642,5292794001069261059878039869818
1534:31294,76413640026094588714001233387

Alone, these numbers don't mean that much, and they don't tell us anything beyond what we already knew: Brad and Will are the best performers on the team. It might be worth noting that in many of the runs, Brad's score is well above the rest of the team, which wasn't as evident in day one's scores. Run #13 is the team's best performance on day two, and much like day one's top performance, Will had the best score by a large margin. When he does well, so does the team.

Oh, and here's the updated score graph that shows all 15 runs thus far:

Scores Per Run

As you can see, there was a lot more floundering and less gradual improvement on day 2. In fact, on average, the team made it through 4.5 arenas on day one, and 3.9 arenas on day two. I'll have some theories with stats and shaky speculation on why this is throughout the rest of the blog.

Division of Score

Here's the division of total score over all of day two's runs:

Score Division, Day 2 Total

Unlike last time, the worst run isn't significantly different from this division, but the breakout of the best run proves my point about Will:

Score Division, Day 2's Best Run

Not that Will remembers saying this during day two, but I never said he survived the longest! I just said that when Will kicks ass and survives longer than normal, the team usually experiences its best runs, even more so than when Brad does well.

All That Power

In regards to power-ups, Brad still hogs the power-ups, with Will a distant second. Nothing new there. I did find this difference surprising, though:

Average of total power-ups grabbed per run

  • Day 1: 12.63 power-ups per run
  • Day 2: 9.14 power-ups per run

This may not be exact, as sometimes I'd record power-ups picked up through weapon swapping or death, but even then it seems clear that the team wasn't grabbing as many power-ups as they were during day one.

"But wait, PsEG," you might say, "they also got further on a lot of their runs on day one, so that makes sense, doesn't it?"

Perhaps a little, but let's examine the average between the two days of power-ups grabbed in total over the number of arenas entered, to give us a power-ups per arena average.

Average of total power-ups grabbed per arena entered

  • Day 1: 2.81 power-ups per arena
  • Day 2: 2.37 power-ups per arena

Still a notable difference! If you go back and look at day two's video, you'll note that there are several times where the team will leave power-ups behind. That may be a grave mistake.

Speaking of which...

Everybody Dies Eventually

Except for Brad on run 14! That run (34:08 to 42:32 in the video) ended with his lantern being snuffed, but he was technically still alive at the end. Given that was also the team's second best run on day two, maybe there's some merit to Brad staying alive longer at the start being beneficial.

Anyways! Here's some far-more-interesting-than-that-paragraph-above numbers.

Average Deaths Per Run

DuderDay 1Day 2Total
Brad1.631.291.47
Will2.251.571.93
Patrick2.131.862.00
Ryan2.381.862.13

Yeah, you're reading that right. Despite a crappier performance on day two, everybody died less than day one. Even if I were to make this average deaths per arena entered, it'd be a downward trend.

So what does that mean? It's not just about not dying in the Lantern Run. It's about not dying at the worst possible moments. The first death is always bad, since it almost always guarantees the snuffing of the first lantern, but after that, one player could die in every section, and as long as the rest of the team can keep the remaining lanterns moving, it'll work out.

Speaking of snuffing lanterns, I'd like to bring back my favorite graph for the Lantern Run.

Snuff Times (or When Lanterns Get Snuffed)

I continued to note where every lantern was snuffed, and I have this lovely graph of survival rates for all 60 lanterns snuffed thus far.

Lantern Survival Rate by Section

And, since that's a little small, here's a table.

SectionSurvival Rate
Intro100.00%
Arena 196.67%
Tunnel 186.67%
Arena 278.33%
Tunnel 240.00%
Arena 340.00%
Tunnel 330.00%
Arena 430.00%
Tunnel 415.00%
Arena 515.00%
Tunnel 510.00%
Arena 68.33%
Tunnel 63.33%
Arena 71.67%
Tunnel 70.00%

This isn't all that different from the first graph I released, so for the most part, lanterns are still getting snuffed in the same areas on average. The most dangerous section, the second tunnel, now claims 38.3% of all lanterns, up from 34.4%.

The first lantern death tended to start a chain reaction of death on day one, usually by Patrick fucking up, but in this day's stats, the fault was spread out far more evenly and was isolated to one death for six out of seven runs (Patrick and Will being the only exception).

Some Final Thoughts

With the stats and my own personal observations, I'd like to make the following suggestions to the team for today's final run:

  • Grab power-ups. Leaving power-up opportunities behind decreases your ability to survive.
  • Don't worry so much about Brad or Will always getting the power-ups, either. Just make sure everybody has weapons they're comfortable with, and let people get health when they need it most.
  • Will and Brad (assuming Will joins the final attempt) need to bicker less. The early runs on day two suffered from their needless angst, and results improved once they calmed down and started working together.
  • Also: Brad, do better at the beginning. Will, do better at the end. Your runs will benefit.
  • The whole team needs to move faster. Surviving is key, yes, but once the first lantern's gone, there's often going to be an open claw-arm waiting to grab a lantern should one of you perish. Don't fuck up a run through unnecessary hesitation, needless carrying-the-lantern-in-front-of-you trickery, or having someone lag behind for lantern-catching safety's sake, causing the tentacle monster to move insurmountably close to your position.
  • Bullshit is going to happen to you tonight. It's how you overcome the bullshit tunnels in Insanely Twisted Shadow Planet that will determine your final outcome.
  • Go right. Don't die. You'll win.
  • ...hopefully.

Thanks for reading, and best of luck to Brad and crew on tonight's run.

Moderator
#1 Posted by PsEG (3491 posts) -
Just Go Right. STILL.

It appears that today will be Brad, Will, Ryan, and Patrick's final attempt to successfully complete the Lantern Run in Insanely Twisted Shadow Planet. With that in mind, I thought it'd be best to look back at their attempts on the second day and analyze what went right and wrong. If you're interested in day one statistics, check those out here and here.

As a reminder, here is the criteria for success:

  • Reach the ninth "arena" in the path. Completion of the ninth arena isn't necessary.
  • Earn 1,000,000 points in a single run.

With that established, let's look at day two's basic statistics to start.

Run Tally

AttemptArenasDurationFinal ScoreDistance ScoreBrad's ScoreWill's ScorePatrick's ScoreRyan's Score
946:44420,77818890063638581885522954823
1023:49261,40910630040026428893790234292
1146:47480,23820950096768597095900055261
1223:25267,84110740057089341723418334997
1369:18684,068280500926091273409205191568
1468:24642,5292794001069261059878039869818
1534:31294,76413640026094588714001233387

Alone, these numbers don't mean that much, and they don't tell us anything beyond what we already knew: Brad and Will are the best performers on the team. It might be worth noting that in many of the runs, Brad's score is well above the rest of the team, which wasn't as evident in day one's scores. Run #13 is the team's best performance on day two, and much like day one's top performance, Will had the best score by a large margin. When he does well, so does the team.

Oh, and here's the updated score graph that shows all 15 runs thus far:

Scores Per Run

As you can see, there was a lot more floundering and less gradual improvement on day 2. In fact, on average, the team made it through 4.5 arenas on day one, and 3.9 arenas on day two. I'll have some theories with stats and shaky speculation on why this is throughout the rest of the blog.

Division of Score

Here's the division of total score over all of day two's runs:

Score Division, Day 2 Total

Unlike last time, the worst run isn't significantly different from this division, but the breakout of the best run proves my point about Will:

Score Division, Day 2's Best Run

Not that Will remembers saying this during day two, but I never said he survived the longest! I just said that when Will kicks ass and survives longer than normal, the team usually experiences its best runs, even more so than when Brad does well.

All That Power

In regards to power-ups, Brad still hogs the power-ups, with Will a distant second. Nothing new there. I did find this difference surprising, though:

Average of total power-ups grabbed per run

  • Day 1: 12.63 power-ups per run
  • Day 2: 9.14 power-ups per run

This may not be exact, as sometimes I'd record power-ups picked up through weapon swapping or death, but even then it seems clear that the team wasn't grabbing as many power-ups as they were during day one.

"But wait, PsEG," you might say, "they also got further on a lot of their runs on day one, so that makes sense, doesn't it?"

Perhaps a little, but let's examine the average between the two days of power-ups grabbed in total over the number of arenas entered, to give us a power-ups per arena average.

Average of total power-ups grabbed per arena entered

  • Day 1: 2.81 power-ups per arena
  • Day 2: 2.37 power-ups per arena

Still a notable difference! If you go back and look at day two's video, you'll note that there are several times where the team will leave power-ups behind. That may be a grave mistake.

Speaking of which...

Everybody Dies Eventually

Except for Brad on run 14! That run (34:08 to 42:32 in the video) ended with his lantern being snuffed, but he was technically still alive at the end. Given that was also the team's second best run on day two, maybe there's some merit to Brad staying alive longer at the start being beneficial.

Anyways! Here's some far-more-interesting-than-that-paragraph-above numbers.

Average Deaths Per Run

DuderDay 1Day 2Total
Brad1.631.291.47
Will2.251.571.93
Patrick2.131.862.00
Ryan2.381.862.13

Yeah, you're reading that right. Despite a crappier performance on day two, everybody died less than day one. Even if I were to make this average deaths per arena entered, it'd be a downward trend.

So what does that mean? It's not just about not dying in the Lantern Run. It's about not dying at the worst possible moments. The first death is always bad, since it almost always guarantees the snuffing of the first lantern, but after that, one player could die in every section, and as long as the rest of the team can keep the remaining lanterns moving, it'll work out.

Speaking of snuffing lanterns, I'd like to bring back my favorite graph for the Lantern Run.

Snuff Times (or When Lanterns Get Snuffed)

I continued to note where every lantern was snuffed, and I have this lovely graph of survival rates for all 60 lanterns snuffed thus far.

Lantern Survival Rate by Section

And, since that's a little small, here's a table.

SectionSurvival Rate
Intro100.00%
Arena 196.67%
Tunnel 186.67%
Arena 278.33%
Tunnel 240.00%
Arena 340.00%
Tunnel 330.00%
Arena 430.00%
Tunnel 415.00%
Arena 515.00%
Tunnel 510.00%
Arena 68.33%
Tunnel 63.33%
Arena 71.67%
Tunnel 70.00%

This isn't all that different from the first graph I released, so for the most part, lanterns are still getting snuffed in the same areas on average. The most dangerous section, the second tunnel, now claims 38.3% of all lanterns, up from 34.4%.

The first lantern death tended to start a chain reaction of death on day one, usually by Patrick fucking up, but in this day's stats, the fault was spread out far more evenly and was isolated to one death for six out of seven runs (Patrick and Will being the only exception).

Some Final Thoughts

With the stats and my own personal observations, I'd like to make the following suggestions to the team for today's final run:

  • Grab power-ups. Leaving power-up opportunities behind decreases your ability to survive.
  • Don't worry so much about Brad or Will always getting the power-ups, either. Just make sure everybody has weapons they're comfortable with, and let people get health when they need it most.
  • Will and Brad (assuming Will joins the final attempt) need to bicker less. The early runs on day two suffered from their needless angst, and results improved once they calmed down and started working together.
  • Also: Brad, do better at the beginning. Will, do better at the end. Your runs will benefit.
  • The whole team needs to move faster. Surviving is key, yes, but once the first lantern's gone, there's often going to be an open claw-arm waiting to grab a lantern should one of you perish. Don't fuck up a run through unnecessary hesitation, needless carrying-the-lantern-in-front-of-you trickery, or having someone lag behind for lantern-catching safety's sake, causing the tentacle monster to move insurmountably close to your position.
  • Bullshit is going to happen to you tonight. It's how you overcome the bullshit tunnels in Insanely Twisted Shadow Planet that will determine your final outcome.
  • Go right. Don't die. You'll win.
  • ...hopefully.

Thanks for reading, and best of luck to Brad and crew on tonight's run.

Moderator
#2 Posted by Guided_By_Tigers (8060 posts) -

Now do a two sample t-test to see if the difference in Brad's and Will's scores are statistically significant.

#3 Posted by adoggz (1953 posts) -

I would put all my money on them doing horrible today.

#4 Posted by Marino (4102 posts) -

I love me some stats.

Staff
#5 Edited by joshthebear (2700 posts) -

Thanks for putting all of this together. I love it, so much data/stats/graphs/numbers.

The first two lantern run videos are some of my absolute favorite premium videos on the entire site. From the anger and frustration to the close calls and tense moments; they are amazing.

I'm sort of hoping they at least kind of practiced, or else it's going to be a whole lot of dying and yelling for hours.

#6 Posted by pyromagnestir (3987 posts) -

I hope they do a run until they drop or get it sorta thing tonight, and not just an hour, since this is the "final" lantern run.

If I was to critique their play I would say I always thought they are too worried about staying alive, not worried enough about going fast, and that is usually their downfall. The reason one fuck up sometimes leads to a chain reaction is because they are going so slow, and a fuck up then means walking on the knife's edge, and they don't react to that well. But it's funny when that happens so I don't mind all that much.

#7 Posted by Ravenlight (8033 posts) -

I love graphs and shit! Thanks for taking the time to math this all out!

#8 Posted by rmanthorp (3705 posts) -

NOMNOMNOMNOMNOMNONM STATS TASTE SO DELICIOUSSSSS!!

Moderator
#9 Posted by BombcastGoldthwait (247 posts) -

Good work. Now I'm going to need those TPS reports. If you can get them to me before you leave today, that would be great.

#10 Posted by Vexxan (4600 posts) -

Pie charts are the best kind of chart!

#11 Posted by Winternet (7936 posts) -

Numbers and graphs. That's awesome!

#12 Edited by SMTDante89 (2481 posts) -

It's a real shame we haven't had any quests, one of my favorite parts were the stats you gave for our completion rates every day.

#13 Posted by SeanFoster (838 posts) -

...I'm considering telling a friend I'm not feeling well so I can go home after work and watch the epic conclusion to the Lantern Run saga.

#14 Posted by Mento (2263 posts) -

I'm stoked about the return of the Lantern Run (and the return of Hollywood's Will Smith for that matter). I could've sworn you made some Day 2 infographics already, but I can't say no to even more of them.

Moderator
#15 Posted by Nightriff (4386 posts) -

Can't wait for this tonight!!! Wish I could watch it live though, I'll probably watch it once they post it

#16 Posted by Ramone (2932 posts) -

Dude, stats are awesome. Thank you for satisfying my hunger.

#17 Posted by Sparklykiss (1910 posts) -

Super depressing that I'll be at work during this run. Amazing stuff regardless. Just makes me miss quests.

Moderator
#18 Posted by BeachThunder (11281 posts) -

I'm impressed by the amount of effort you put into this :o. Although, why not use the same colours that each of them use in-game?

Anyway, I'm looking forward to see if they finally make it.

#19 Posted by Kidavenger (3380 posts) -

I seem to recall Brad and Will being the ones that did most of the lantern carrying, while the others did most of the shooting/more dangerous stuff; not saying that one is more important or difficult than the other, but it's not reflected in these stats.

I could be crazy and remembering this all wrong too...

#20 Posted by Dethfish (3593 posts) -

I think Patrick and Ryan need to step their game up. They're bringing down the team!

#21 Posted by ZombiePie (5377 posts) -

Future stat I want to see is "Swears per Run."

Moderator
#22 Edited by BaconBuTTy (168 posts) -

This is awesome, thank you for this.

Will you be statifying the final run?

#23 Posted by Yanngc33 (4496 posts) -

We need to get a betting pool going on when they'll finally make it.

#24 Posted by FinalDasa (1256 posts) -

Great write up! I kind of wish this kind of stats were attached to more games so I could prove to my friends they were the ones fucking up every time.

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