Nintendo is apparently worrying analysts, are they right?

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#1 Edited by BestUsernameEver (4825 posts) -

It's a strange time for Nintendo, in the long term and the short term. Nothing is coming out for their home console, and 3ds games continue to trickle in (thankfully at an increased rate now). The wii U may or may not have a name change, it's a mystery, and Nintendo itself is keeping the next system expertly silent. But apparently analysts (the same one who influenced nintendo to push the 3DS out of the door too soon) are saying Nintendo needs to shake things up to prove they know what they're doing and how to tackle it. Polygon (game site) has noted that Nintendo actaully diminished it's 2011 operating cost, which is almost unheard of when it involves such large companies like Nintendo.

For the first time ever, according to Reuters, Nintendo will be explaining to investors why it has an operating loss. A massive operating loss.

The ubiquity of gaming seems to be the biggest issue facing the company. Gamers don't just game on a couch anymore; they game in cars, on trains, planes, beds and, yes, even on toilets. (In fact, according to one survey, five percent of 15,000 gamers polled said they game on a toilet.) While Nintendo has portable devices, the DS and 3DS, it hasn't created a system that allows gamers to switch easily between their portable offerings and their at-home one. The Wii U, due out later this year, apparently won't address that issue either.

But all of this seems like the same old analysts false worry, I honestly think the Wii U will sell, and the 3DS has already proven itself, so where is the danger? Sure they need to think about modernizing the company, but for now they seem as well off as the XBox or playstation division. Am I crazy or is Nintendo actually is trouble?

#2 Posted by blueduck (964 posts) -

Handhelds made just for gaming will not be part of the future. The tickle me Emo effect the Wii was granted will not be happening to the WiiU. They never stopped shitting on third party developers. Yeah, I would say they should start worrying.  

#3 Posted by Jeust (10480 posts) -

Sony isn't also in great shape.

#4 Posted by BestUsernameEver (4825 posts) -

@blueduck said:

Handhelds made just for gaming will not be part of the future. The tickle me Emo effect the Wii was granted will not be happening to the WiiU. They never stopped shitting on third party developers. Yeah, I would say they should start worrying.

A lot of comments in that story are focused on Nintendo putting their IP's on iPhone and Android for Nintendo to stay alive, but I just do not see that ever happening. What else could they do then?

#5 Posted by Hailinel (23927 posts) -

Analysts have WM amazing ability to be proven wrong.

#6 Posted by the_OFFICIAL_jAPanese_teaBAG (4307 posts) -
@Jeust said:

Sony isn't also in great shape.

Its doing really shitty right now compared to where it used to be
#7 Posted by BestUsernameEver (4825 posts) -

@Jeust: They just addressed that though, Kaz Harai gave a 'one sony' speech on how to unite all the branches of Sony (Music, movies, playstation, phones, TV), so analysts aren't as worried for Sony because they actually have a good plan, Nintendo has no plan if things don't go well with Wii U.

#8 Posted by Hailinel (23927 posts) -

An amazing ability. Not WM. What the fuck, autocorrect?

#9 Posted by BestUsernameEver (4825 posts) -

@the_OFFICIAL_jAPanese_teaBAG said:

@Jeust said:

Sony isn't also in great shape.

Its doing really shitty right now compared to where it used to be

Sony was pretty much the Apple of the 1980's and 90s, look at them now, it's sad.

#10 Posted by wewantsthering (1552 posts) -

A lot depends on how they price the Wii U at launch. If they sell it for $300, above all the other consoles, and it ends up not being as powerful as current consoles/doesn't get 3rd party support, they will be screwed.

#11 Posted by BestUsernameEver (4825 posts) -

@Hailinel: Yeah I was confused, thought you were talking about Whiskey media proving analysts wrong or something. Noted, now it makes sense.

#12 Posted by BestUsernameEver (4825 posts) -

@wewantsthering: Article says the lowest Nintendo could go would be 350 to make profit, so if that's the case, they are screwed in a world where a 160GB ps3 costs 199 and an xbox even less than that.

#13 Posted by the_OFFICIAL_jAPanese_teaBAG (4307 posts) -
@BestUsernameEver said:

@the_OFFICIAL_jAPanese_teaBAG said:

@Jeust said:

Sony isn't also in great shape.

Its doing really shitty right now compared to where it used to be

Sony was pretty much the Apple of the 1980's and 90s, look at them now, it's sad.

It had the chance to be the Apple of the last decade too but it completely blew it.  
#14 Posted by SlightConfuse (3963 posts) -

the lack of any third party support and focus on selling balance boards and peripal to people instead of games hurt them. but i fele the 3Ds is hitting its stride, and the Wii u needs to deliver but with a lot of people owning a 350 or ps3 i dont see much incentive to get a Wii-U unless you only own a wii.

#15 Posted by BestUsernameEver (4825 posts) -

@the_OFFICIAL_jAPanese_teaBAG said:

@BestUsernameEver said:

@the_OFFICIAL_jAPanese_teaBAG said:

@Jeust said:

Sony isn't also in great shape.

Its doing really shitty right now compared to where it used to be

Sony was pretty much the Apple of the 1980's and 90s, look at them now, it's sad.

It had the chance to be the Apple of the last decade too but it completely blew it.

Yep, and you know when? When the walkman go or whatever was announced one year before the first iPod, and Sony, getting greedy decided to make DRM for the entire service. People bought rios instead, and then the iPod took over. They indeed could have beaten apple to the game, but sat on their money.

#16 Posted by killacam (1284 posts) -

nintendo just don't give a fuck, and it's totally been working

#17 Edited by BestUsernameEver (4825 posts) -

@SlightConfuse: The wii u is just an upgrade to the wii, aimed at the wii market, but the wii market doesnt need an upgrade because they have been playing wii sports for 6 years. Nintendo's strategy with the wii u is all wrong.

#18 Posted by SlightConfuse (3963 posts) -

@BestUsernameEver: i agree the wii is amed at moms and grandma who want to loose weight and stuff, i feel its too late to play catch up with the curernt consoles who have been slowly building communities and features to hook people in. All the media stuff on xbox is great and Ps plus has its benefits as well,. thier core franches don't really do it for me any more to justify buying a console just to play those and the 4 other games worth playing. if they released an HD wii around 2008-09 then things might have been a bit different.

#19 Posted by JasonR86 (9609 posts) -

I think it's an analyst's job to perpetually worry.

#20 Posted by TaliciaDragonsong (8698 posts) -

Analysts are silly people, that's my opinion on it.

#21 Posted by AhmadMetallic (18955 posts) -

Why are game companies in such a bad shape? 

#22 Edited by BestUsernameEver (4825 posts) -

@AhmadMetallic said:

Why are game companies in such a bad shape?

Huge transition time for tech/game companies. It's hard to see now, but when we look back on it in 5 years it will be clear why certain companies couldn't keep up. Short answer, rapid innovation in tech ecosystems.

Example of ecosystems changing the way tech companies operate:

  • Apple: iTunes, Apple TV, iCloud, iOS
  • Microsoft: XBox, Zune, Windows 8, Skydrive, Windows phone
  • Sony: Sony entertainment network, Music unlimited, Playstation (xperia play, playstation certified devices)
  • Google: Android, gmail, google music, google play store, google docs, google labs
  • Amazon: Kindle store, amazon store, amazon music, amazon streaming

All gaming and tech companies are trying to lock you into their all access media destination. Nintendo is missing from that list because they barely understand online play, app stores or modern distribution.

#23 Posted by Dagbiker (6939 posts) -

Nintendo is only in trouble if their console's suck, and they cant make money. so maybe.

#24 Edited by Ben_H (3312 posts) -
@blueduck said:

The tickle me Emo effect the Wii was granted

This has got to be one of the best typos I've ever seen.
 
There is no place for a handheld game console anymore. Why by a $300 PSP or DS when for a hundred or two more I can get a device that does games almost (or just) as good and also have other features that work much better than on handhelds. The PSP internet experience is terrible, the internet experience on the iPad and Android tablets is almost comparable to a desktop at this point.
#25 Posted by Pinworm45 (4088 posts) -

They certainly seem to be making all the wrong moves.

#26 Posted by LordAndrew (14424 posts) -

Analysts are always worrying. That's what they get paid for.

#27 Posted by BestUsernameEver (4825 posts) -

@Spadina said:

"it hasn't created a system that allows gamers to switch easily between their portable offerings and their at-home one"? What does that even mean in real terms?

Thought the same exact thing, super cryptic.

#28 Edited by Dylabaloo (1549 posts) -

How they can mess up with all that Wii money is beyond me. They have to make smart investments from now on and swallow their pride by admiting Apple is a competitor, and re-jiggering the next handheld console to combat it. How about a hand-held console more or less the size of an iPod touch that contains physical buttons and old nintendo classics (Pokemon's, Metroids and so on) and new alike via a downloadable marketplace (Their experience isn't exactly stellar with marketplaces but at least they know what not to do). Call it the Nintendo Portable. I sure as hell know i'd buy one. I don't feel the 3DS was a smart for the way handheld market has changed, people want less gimmicks and more convenience. I was very interested a getting a 3DS, but I just didn't see where i'd be using it besides my house, at that point i'd rather a console game or arcade download.

#29 Posted by mosespippy (4043 posts) -

@BestUsernameEver: May I ask what makes you think the WiiU will sell?

#30 Posted by Jolt92 (1543 posts) -

Let's just wait until the fucking console is out or at least shown at e3. I just looked at some sales-chart from Japan and the 10 top spots except for one were all 3DS games so I thought Nintendo were doing fine, but I guess not.

#31 Posted by BestUsernameEver (4825 posts) -

@mosespippy said:

@BestUsernameEver: May I ask what makes you think the WiiU will sell?

Everytime people doubt Nintendo it goes 180, so it's just a guess based on previous consoles. It has a big possibility of bombing, but I think Nintendo knows there is much riding on the success for it to fail.

#32 Posted by BongChilla (204 posts) -

I love how everyone is predicting doom for the Wii-U when we don't even know what it will be like. Christ people the system could be awesome, analysts will predict negatively because they know as much as we do out this system which is not much.

It was 2 years ago when we were all saying Nintendo prints money and were leading in sales. Now they are doomed for failure because of speculation on a system that is a mostly veiled in secrecy.

#33 Edited by Seppli (10251 posts) -

I believe NIntendo can neither recreate the phenomenal success of the Wii with the WiiU, nor the success of the DS with the 3DS. Both will be a success for the company, but a far cry from the mass phenomenon their predecessors were. Times have changed.

Mental recovery from mass hysteria is what's in the books for Nintendo. Guess making inappropriate amounts of money will leave you with a hangover, once the phenomenon inevitably dies down.

#34 Posted by mosespippy (4043 posts) -

@BestUsernameEver said:

@mosespippy said:

@BestUsernameEver: May I ask what makes you think the WiiU will sell?

Everytime people doubt Nintendo it goes 180, so it's just a guess based on previous consoles. It has a big possibility of bombing, but I think Nintendo knows there is much riding on the success for it to fail.

Ok, so it's just a hunch. I personally think it will bomb. I don't think there is an existing market for it. I think the masses that bought a Wii don't use their Wii and won't see value in buying a new one and people who play games already have their system of choice. Anything as good as that isn't good enough; it has to be better. I don't think anyone is clamouring for yet another new control system.

#35 Posted by Jolt92 (1543 posts) -

@mosespippy: Unless you have some details to spill about the thing (I'm all ears if you have), we don't know much about the system or the games it's launching with so how can anyone predict death or glory just yet?

You'd have a better chance saying something about 3DS or Vita but that still seems like it can go either way.

#36 Posted by FreakAche (2950 posts) -
@killacam: How is not turning a profit "working"?
#37 Edited by egg (1450 posts) -

@BestUsernameEver said:

While Nintendo has portable devices, the DS and 3DS, it hasn't created a system that allows gamers to switch easily between their portable offerings and their at-home one. The Wii U, due out later this year, apparently won't address that issue either.

That is the dumbest thing I've read and thus quite likely written by an analyst or journalist.

Switching platform to play the exact same game you were playing to start with makes no sense whatsoever and is in NO way convenient since it would at minimum involve an extra step (that step being the use of whatever feature the quote is asking for -- presumedly the ability to transfer your save from one platform to another) -- a step which would otherwise be unnecessary.

MGS PW's ''Transfarring'' didn't exactly light the world on fire and really who asked for it?? Other than maybe Pachter types who don't game and have no idea what they're even talking about.

#38 Edited by GunnBjorn (2911 posts) -
@LordAndrew said:



                   

Analysts are always worrying. That's what they get paid for.



                   

               

Correct. There's a difference between worry and caution. Especially with a toppling economy, they're extremely cautious. In particular the electronic entertainment market is an erratic business right now. Mild optimism is the max you can expect from analysts.
#39 Posted by CptBedlam (4449 posts) -

Analysts care about short-term revenue; Nintendo putting out their IPs on other devices would hurt them in the long term. And they know it.

#40 Posted by SeriouslyNow (8534 posts) -

@BestUsernameEver said:

@Jeust: They just addressed that though, Kaz Harai gave a 'one sony' speech on how to unite all the branches of Sony (Music, movies, playstation, phones, TV), so analysts aren't as worried for Sony because they actually have a good plan, Nintendo has no plan if things don't go well with Wii U.

So you're a Nintendo insider? I just want to be sure. Analysts are just as worried about Sony, even moreso because Sony have many more divisions and almost none of them are making record profits while many are making record losses and they still have the albatross around their necks regarding their continual inability to manage internet security. Then there's the whole shadow hanging over Kaz's future at Sony altogether. A speech doesn't please analysts, raw figures do.

#41 Edited by AndrewB (7499 posts) -

I feel weird as a company outsider, because their hardware has been so abysmal lately that I *want* it to fail. The only good move Nintendo made since the Gameboy Advance was to use a lenticular 3D display in the 3DS. Even then, the limited resolution of both screens cripples a lot of the modern usefulness of the device (especially the teeny *resistive* touch screen).

But they continue to make good games with some of the franchises I would have figured they'd have run into the ground by now. As a software company, I'd be happy for them. As a hardware company, I find it difficult to feel sorry. They don't have a future on their current path. Make no mistake; their decline will be relatively slow and gradual, but it would happen.

#42 Posted by Mcfart (1552 posts) -

If Nintendo puts their IPs on other devices, then they might as well give up on the hardware business. That's a bad idea, because think about it: right now, people have to drop $~150 on a Nintendo console to play their games. Also, Nintendo is the only company to actually profit off hardware sales. If they put their IPs on other devices, then they'll lose out of that profit from hardware sales, and will have to pay other companies money to publish on their systems (MS for example).

Nintendo's doing it right, and even if they're 3'rd place (Gamecube), they'll still do alright. Also, their IPs are stronger then ever, so really....they have no reason to put their games on non-Nintendo platforms.

#43 Posted by cmblasko (1129 posts) -

Talking doom and gloom about Nintendo is so 2001.

#44 Posted by SkyTown_Drifts (47 posts) -

Doom and gloom because Nintendo lost a small portion of the fuckloads of cash they made over the last 30 years. Yep, doesn't look like they will last much longer.

#45 Posted by selbie (1845 posts) -

@SkyTown_Drifts said:

Doom and gloom because Nintendo lost a small portion of the fuckloads of cash they made over the last 30 years. Yep, doesn't look like they will last much longer.

This. Just because they are starting to make a loss, doesn't mean Nintendo is going down the shitter. The Wii and DS (and every permutation of it since fucking 2004) are running out of steam. Nintendo have milked this cash cow into oblivion and they are obviously spending big on R&D to make a profit on the next hardware cycle.

#46 Posted by Contrarian (1143 posts) -

@AndrewB said:

Make no mistake; their decline will be relatively slow and gradual, but it would happen.

You could easily be talking about both Sony and Microsft there. Both of them have been losing out as the market shifted whilst they slept.

Nintendo aren't going anywhere. Even when the Gamecube shifted a mere 21 million units (not much less than the Xbox), they still made a profit (whilst Microsoft lost money). They have accumulated so much money, they could make a loss for years to come and still be afloat. The one thing I never understand from so-called informed gamers is that they wish for less competition and the demise of a company that has and still is making great games. Even more, why they are so vociferous in broadcasting their views. Anyone care to explain why?

#47 Posted by SeriouslyNow (8534 posts) -

@AndrewB said:

I feel weird as a company outsider, because their hardware has been so abysmal lately that I *want* it to fail. The only good move Nintendo made since the Gameboy Advance was to use a lenticular 3D display in the 3DS. Even then, the limited resolution of both screens cripples a lot of the modern usefulness of the device (especially the teeny *resistive* touch screen).

But they continue to make good games with some of the franchises I would have figured they'd have run into the ground by now. As a software company, I'd be happy for them. As a hardware company, I find it difficult to feel sorry. They don't have a future on their current path. Make no mistake; their decline will be relatively slow and gradual, but it would happen.

Nintendo has only made leading hardware on a few occasions (the DS's dual screen, the Wiimote/Motion gameplay, the SNES's APU/Wavetable Synth and FX GPU extensibility, Mode7 and now the 3DS's 3D) and all of those have been features which have sold their hardware into new markets. In all of those cases they have couple relatively underpowered systems with leading additions which easily separate them from their competitors and the WiiU will be no different. As a PC and Android Tablet gamer I can totally understand your dislike of Nintendo's choices when it comes to resolution and CPU grunt but as a person who's watched the market for a long time I can safely say you're utterly misguided if you think your desires of picture clarity, touch sensitivity and smoothness of frame rate bear any relation to what actually sells in large numbers. Nintendo's market share has only really dipped once in historical terms and that was with the Gamecube because the market was extremely volatile after SEGA's exit and MS's capitalisation on that exit.

#48 Posted by AuthenticM (3699 posts) -

To date, I have no intention of buying a Wii U at launch. We'll see if my opinion changes after E3.

#49 Posted by Karkarov (2993 posts) -

@JasonR86 said:

I think it's an analyst's job to perpetually worry.

Well said, people forget that an analyst or researcher basically require that their results be uh.... worth reading. Either that or they don't get paid. No one is going to hire an analyst who always returns with, "no sir, I think everything looks okay". It is their job to find something to bitch about.

#50 Posted by evanbower (1210 posts) -
@killacam

nintendo just don't give a fuck, and it's totally been working

And how! We need at least one of the big three to keep making ridiculous choices. It keeps things interesting.

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