PS Vita sales to hit 12.4 million in 2012?

#1 Posted by Contrarian (1143 posts) -

According to a forecast by Strategy Analytics, around 12.4 million Vita handheld consoles will be sold in 2012. Strategy Analytics believes that sales of 12.4 million Vitas are possible this year, if the device gets a price cut at some point during that period.

"The real value of the PlayStation Vita is its drive for content revenue growth and its strategic position in Sony's entertainment ecosystem", stated Jia Wu, Senior Analyst for Connected Home Devices at Strategy Analytics . "The PlayStation Store will have a vital role in selling games, videos and other content through its online access." "We believe that PlayStation Vita will cause Sony's 2012 portable console software revenue to grow by $800 million compared with 2011."

"Although it's too small a device to turn the company around in terms of financial contribution, we expect it to bring in $2 billion incremental revenue from both hardware and software sales in 2012." "To survive the march of smartphones entering the casual gaming space, Sony needs to achieve the Holy Grail of inventing innovative new gameplay whilst at the same time investing heavily in exclusive content." adds Jia Wu.

I know we are talking about analysts here and man, how often do they get these things wrong, but 12.4 million units worldwide? It is only averaging about 16,000 a week in Japan since launch and that equates to maybe near 1 million in Japan this year (I am sure it will be higher when high profile games are launched, so 1mio is worst case scenario). After the poor showing of the PSP in the west (relatively speaking), I kind of think this number may be a lot on the high side.

What stands out from the comments is what I highlighted - possible this year, if the device gets a price cut at some point - that's a pretty big caveat on his guesswork. Nice one to add "possible" as well. Leaves the door wide open for being wrong. Why the .4mio by the way, seems odd not to just go 12mio. I don't think it was the price cut alone that saw the 2DS spike, but rather certain games. Even at the full price and usual promotional pricing, I think the Vita could sell well, but it needs some killer titles. Monster Hunter will work in Japan, but I can't what will work in the west and no, I don't think CoD will have any effect at all.

What are your thoughts on a likely number for 2012? You can be an analyst as well, just pull a number out of yor arse.

#2 Posted by Kenobi (378 posts) -

I have a big urge to get a vita. But I have sampled a lot of the games and I have to say that my main interest at this point is the possibility of a retro market. Not PSX games, that interest is so niche at this point it's painful. Conversion of PS2 games, larger text, possible texture change, etc, for the smaller screen. Not sure how possible that is with the increasingly obscure Japanese publishing rules and companies. After sampling all the Japanese demos a couple times each, some many times. I have to say that I was reminded a lot of playing the Game Gear for the first time. Not in the shape or anything aesthetic, but about the games. When I first played games of the game gear, they were all attempts of putting current console games on it. All I could think, they were are crap. Bad versions, incredibly empty, limited, unimpressive, bland games. The same goes for all the vita games, except for fighting games, those seem to be pretty good.

#3 Posted by MooseyMcMan (11124 posts) -

I'll believe it when I see it. Conversely, I would love to see that happen, if only to just help shut up those jerks who keep saying dedicated handhelds are dying and that phones are the future of portable gaming.

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#4 Posted by Contrarian (1143 posts) -

I know I will get one eventually, possibly brought back cheaper from the US in a few months, but it isn't for they have released. I couldn't be more bored with the release titles if I tried, but because I know that a plethora a worthwhile JRPG will turn up. I wouldn't mind some decent PS2 ports like Final Fantasy X (?) they are releasing - I don't mind rebuying some old games I loved. But overall, the Vita is still a big meh for me, mainly becuase too many developers are lazy and they will dump lazy ports to it and given a choice, I will go the full PS3 game.

#5 Posted by Lunar_Aura (2779 posts) -

I sure hope this is true. I want portable gaming to live, damnit.

#6 Posted by BigChickenDinner (766 posts) -

I think they need to step away from the Cocaine/LSD Lollipops and start making shit people actually want to buy. Like good games for the PS3.

#7 Posted by Contrarian (1143 posts) -

@MooseyMcMan said:

I'll believe it when I see it. Conversely, I would love to see that happen, if only to just help shut up those jerks who keep saying dedicated handhelds are dying and that phones are the future of portable gaming.

@Lunar_Aura said:

I sure hope this is true. I want portable gaming to live, damnit.

I never want dedicated handheld game systems to go away. I don't get why some seem to enjoy the possibilty of it happening - jerks indeed. If it is a success, then better games will be released for it and everyone wins from that. If the Japanese sales continued, developers would pull out of it very quickly (only to quickly return when it sudden;y starts selling).

#8 Posted by Sooty (8082 posts) -

@MooseyMcMan said:

I'll believe it when I see it. Conversely, I would love to see that happen, if only to just help shut up those jerks who keep saying dedicated handhelds are dying and that phones are the future of portable gaming.

They are already shut up by the 3DS outperforming the DS!

#9 Posted by Mnemoidian (955 posts) -

The (IMO) most accurate statement in this?

Sony needs to achieve the Holy Grail of inventing innovative new gameplay whilst at the same time investing heavily in exclusive content." adds Jia Wu.

As for the number - based on what? Are there early sales' numbers up already, or something?

#10 Posted by Chubbaluphigous (571 posts) -

A repackaging with an 8GB card and a game would be better for them than a price drop. Memory cards are like shopping carts. People are going to spend more if they have more space to put games. The memory cards are dirt cheap for them to make, and have a high perceived value. Including one would be a small cut to them while give a lot more value to the consumer, and they would have more space to put things bought in the store.

#11 Posted by GS_Dan (1403 posts) -

It's had a big presence in my local brick and mortar store, the demo pod has been in constant use from what I could tell. Interest is there.

#12 Posted by DeF (4903 posts) -

so that would mean the inverse PSP situation would be true: Japan doesn't give a shit about the Vita while the West eats it up? 'cause otherwise I don't see any big numbers for the Vita this year (!) as reasonable

#13 Posted by DrDarkStryfe (1119 posts) -

Japan isn't eating the VIta up yet, but that can change with software. A title like Monster Hunter causes hardware spikes like no other.

Europe as always been a Sony stronghold, so the system could do very well there.

As for the States, I do not think it will do gangbusters until the holiday's, when I think Sony might entertain a price drop.

#14 Posted by Dany (7887 posts) -

It wont.

I know, crazy.

#15 Edited by ZenaxPure (2569 posts) -

I think you have to be crazy to except that currently. There is not a single game in the near future that looks like it will move units continuously in Japan. As for other regions I honestly don't know what to think other than 12 million seems crazy. The PSP never really caught on in a huge way so it's really hard to say if the Vita will or not. Really though, the 3DS saw a price cut and a slew of great games by the end of the year and it is just now breaking 5 million, I highly doubt the Vita is going to do double that in a years time.

#16 Posted by Elazul (1327 posts) -

I'm liking the Vita and all, but judging from the sales Sony's seen so far there is no god damn way it's gonna sell anything remotely close to that. Not to mention that the chance of a price cut this year is pretty much non-existant due to the Vita's hardware being way more expensive than what's in the 3DS.

#17 Posted by Tumbler (161 posts) -

@Contrarian:

I'd be interested in Vita if there were games I wanted to play. I don't want to play Vita Uncharted for $50. I don't want to play Vita Wipeout for $40. At best if you're going to simply sell me Vita version of ps3 games I'd need those to be maybe $20 max. And what I want is a large number of digital games that I can purchase for $5 -$10. I don't have any interest in having those little game cards and carrying those around so unless they're going to offer a lot of digital games at great prices there is no reason for me to own one.

If sony had shipped this thing with PSN compatibility on some games, smaller PSN titles, I'd probably be looking very closely at it. There are a lot of smaller titles on PSN and Live that I never play because I rarely want to play arcade games when I'm sitting down on my 360/PS3. But you allow me to play those games on the go for $15 or less in most cases? Ok, now I'm listening.

$30 is too much for games on this system, $50 is hilarious.

#18 Edited by Krakn3Dfx (2492 posts) -

@Elazul: According to an article on D-Toid a while back, they broke down the Vita and it's roughly about $160 in parts, so even on the $250 wifi model, they're making around $100 per unit before labor costs. Sony has said there's room for a price adjustment if they feel it's justified, and I'm sure that profit gap is only going to get wider the longer the system is out.

I don't see Sony selling 12m of these things in 2012, but it would be pretty cool if they did.

#19 Posted by 014 (353 posts) -

I feel like they are going the Nintendo route of purposely keeping the production numbers at a moderate to low level. Sony might have planned it out so that they don't need to sell a crazily high amount in order to keep a good business model. I'm just speculating, but it's a possibility. It might not be their goal to get the top spot in the handheld market. If they planned production accordingly, then simply being one of the handhelds is not a hurt to their finances.

I think Sony makes a good system. Comparing the hardware of my PS3 to the 360 I had (w/o HDMI), the PS3 clearly won. Easier hard drive upgrades. Using a regular flash drive as a backup drive or to transfer data. Built-in WiFi. Standard computer style power cable. Blu-ray. Standard USB to charge the controllers. Free online play. HDMI. That system made me a Sony fan even though I'd still say to this day that the 360 game selection is better.

I feel similarly about the Vita. I think it's a better system than the 3DS. I wanted a 3DS really bad before they came out and I played with one in a store. It didn't live up to my expectation. My thoughts were the games should be good and it would be a good system, but news of the Vita grabbed my attention. It sounded better. I hope some great games come out for the Vita. If they don't, I still think the system itself rocks.

#20 Posted by Hunkulese (2742 posts) -

@Contrarian: Just curious where in the world mio is the short form of million.

#21 Posted by Contrarian (1143 posts) -

@Hunkulese said:

@Contrarian: Just curious where in the world mio is the short form of million.

It is used all the time in the multinational company I work for. You got me curious as I just use it without thinking about it and apparently it is the French abbreviation. I am not French, but the company is Swiss.

#22 Edited by Contrarian (1143 posts) -

@Zenaxzd said:

I think you have to be crazy to except that currently. There is not a single game in the near future that looks like it will move units continuously in Japan. As for other regions I honestly don't know what to think other than 12 million seems crazy. The PSP never really caught on in a huge way so it's really hard to say if the Vita will or not. Really though, the 3DS saw a price cut and a slew of great games by the end of the year and it is just now breaking 5 million, I highly doubt the Vita is going to do double that in a years time.

The 5mio 3DS figure is Japan only. The 3DS worldwide is somewhere near 15mio - 5mio in Japan, 4.5mio in the USA & 4mio in Europe (yes, I know that doesn't add up, there must nbe "others"). Extrapolating those percentages, then you would need close enough to 4mio units per region. If my mathematics are close enough, in Japan alone, it would have to consistantly go from 16k a week to 80k a week average for the rest of the year, as would be the average for the year for Europe and the USA. Big call I think but I wouldn't bet a large sum to say it wouldn't happen.

My personal anecdotal response to the launch of the Vita locally was that the major department store didn't stock it, which I found very odd. I am sure they will though. Another major electrical retailer told me he sold 6 of them on launch day. I know that is only one store in a country town, but that seems very low to me for a launch day. I have not seen any real advertising at all except posters in EB Games. They need to get the word out there. They need to build some interest.

#23 Posted by Hailinel (24961 posts) -

As much as I don't wan the Vita at the moment, I do want it to succeed, just as I want the 3DS to succeed. I don't know how likely 12.4 million in sales in a year is, with or without a price cut, though.

#24 Posted by ZenaxPure (2569 posts) -
@Contrarian: Oh derp, forgot about the 5 mil only being in Japan since everyone has been celebrating it lately. 
 
Either way, doesn't change how I feel about it. I don't really see the Vita getting to that number this year alone. The biggest problem is a lot of those sales need to be in Japan and there doesn't seem to be ANYTHING that will give it a boost currently. Persona 4 certainly will give it a nice bump when it rolls around but I don't think that is going to have the staying power of a Mario or Monster Hunter game. I don't think the Vita is doomed or any crap like that, but it really needs some games that people really care about.
#25 Posted by Contrarian (1143 posts) -

@Zenaxzd said:

@Contrarian: Oh derp, forgot about the 5 mil only being in Japan since everyone has been celebrating it lately.

Either way, doesn't change how I feel about it. I don't really see the Vita getting to that number this year alone. The biggest problem is a lot of those sales need to be in Japan and there doesn't seem to be ANYTHING that will give it a boost currently. Persona 4 certainly will give it a nice bump when it rolls around but I don't think that is going to have the staying power of a Mario or Monster Hunter game. I don't think the Vita is doomed or any crap like that, but it really needs some games that people really care about.

I think Japan will eventually take care of itself when a big title, not even Monster Hunter, will give it consistent spikes in sales. However, it is the west that concerns me. What game franchises will give it proper and consistent spikes? I honestly have no idea, but I know it isn't a CoD. Any port of a PS3 game just won't cut it as it just divides the sales. I don't think a Jak & Daxter will do it either. I can't think of a game that will use the unique capabilities of the Vita and be built with the Vita in mind, from the ground up. I know what I will buy it for, but my tastes are more in line with the Japanese consumer, so as long as they translate many of them, I will be happy.

#26 Posted by Claude (16254 posts) -

Handhelds are for girls.

#27 Posted by Elazul (1327 posts) -

@Krakn3Dfx said:

@Elazul: According to an article on D-Toid a while back, they broke down the Vita and it's roughly about $160 in parts, so even on the $250 wifi model, they're making around $100 per unit before labor costs. Sony has said there's room for a price adjustment if they feel it's justified, and I'm sure that profit gap is only going to get wider the longer the system is out.

I don't see Sony selling 12m of these things in 2012, but it would be pretty cool if they did.

Damn, really? At that point they'd probably be able to drop it down to $200 and still make a bit off the hardware, or maybe even match the 3DS if they get aggressive with it. Any word on how much the 3DS costs to manufacture? You gotta figure that even with the price drop they're still making a good bit with the hardware they're using.

#28 Edited by EricNStuff (69 posts) -

I only hope this happens because I feel Sony has made some big mistakes with their marketing of this thing and I'd like to see them turn a profit. It really looks like a fantastic handheld console, but I feel they made some bad choices going about t its release.

#29 Posted by Contrarian (1143 posts) -

@Claude said:

Handhelds are for girls.

You're a boy and you have a handheld too. How often do you get to play it :?

#30 Posted by Scrumdidlyumptious (1641 posts) -

Seems very unlikely but I hope it happens. It's the best gaming experience I've had on any console yet, so it would be a damn shame if gamers and developers turned their backs on it. I just don't know how prepared Sony is to take further losses with a price cut though since they're in pretty bad shape now. Even if they did cut the price relatively soon I probably won't be angry since it doesn't feel like I was ripped off. I'd welcome anything to get this system to succeed so I can continue playing games on it.

#31 Posted by Krakn3Dfx (2492 posts) -

@Elazul said:

@Krakn3Dfx said:

@Elazul: According to an article on D-Toid a while back, they broke down the Vita and it's roughly about $160 in parts, so even on the $250 wifi model, they're making around $100 per unit before labor costs. Sony has said there's room for a price adjustment if they feel it's justified, and I'm sure that profit gap is only going to get wider the longer the system is out.

I don't see Sony selling 12m of these things in 2012, but it would be pretty cool if they did.

Damn, really? At that point they'd probably be able to drop it down to $200 and still make a bit off the hardware, or maybe even match the 3DS if they get aggressive with it. Any word on how much the 3DS costs to manufacture? You gotta figure that even with the price drop they're still making a good bit with the hardware they're using.

I read around $100-$110 on the 3DS at one point, but then I read that N was losing money on each unit once they did their drop to $180 on it, so who knows.

#32 Posted by Scrumdidlyumptious (1641 posts) -

Yeah you have to take into account retail markup, distribution costs, R&D costs, labour costs, marketing e.t.c.

#33 Posted by FancySoapsMan (5833 posts) -

I don't know if I believe that but I do want to see the Vita succeed.

#34 Posted by flammverit (69 posts) -

I suggest to keep this thread visible until the end of this year. This way we will know if Vita hit that impressive number and as important as that we will also know how accurate are the forecast of Strategy Analytics ;)

#35 Posted by planetary (349 posts) -

For the most part, games are cheap. People who complain about game prices need to think about how they're spending their disposable income a bit harder.

Consider the price per hour of entertainment, overall. Uncharted's campaign is supposed to be about 11 hours long. That means it costs about $4.50 per hour, which is less than the per-hour cost of a movie at a theater. If you spend about 20 hours in Wipeout, that's $2 per hour, which is around the price per hour for watching some TV series BD titles. If Persona 4 ends up running the full $50, and you get 80 hours of play out of it, that's $0.63/hour, which isn't too far off from the per-hour price of reading a freaking book.

You can imagine broader comparisons. Comics tend to run $4 per issue these days, and take about 15 minutes to read, which gives you a rate of about $16/hour. A decent cigar costs upwards of $20 for an hour's enjoyment. A baseball game might run you $50 for the seat, $20 for parking, so call it $70 for 3 hours, or $23 per hour.

I say again: games are cheap. People like need to stop whining.

#36 Posted by Contrarian (1143 posts) -

@flammverit said:

I suggest to keep this thread visible until the end of this year. This way we will know if Vita hit that impressive number and as important as that we will also know how accurate are the forecast of Strategy Analytics ;)

I will make a note in my diary.

#37 Posted by Contrarian (1143 posts) -

I calculated that the PSV would need to sell at a rate of 80k a week for the rest of the year and the first week after that, the sales have dropped to 11k (w/e 18/2). Every week like that makes it that much harder to get 4mio by the end of the year.

I also read that Sony USA expect to sell 500k in the first 3 weeks of the launch (I assume we mean from the 25/2, not the pre-orders). Clearly they are trying to dampen expectations, so that a low figure, which 500k really is, won't set the dogs barking about a failure. It will interesting to track and compare sales of the Vita against the 3DS, as they launched at the same price, so it is comparing apples with apples. This isn't to claim which is better, but to just see how the market is recieving a new product. The 3DS sold 400k on launch and another 200k over the following 4 weeks. If it trails the 3DS, then Sony will really have to look hard at a price cut and if it exceeds it, it can claim it needs no price cut, due to its success. I get the feeling that an inevitable price drop is keeping many potential buyers on the fence.

#38 Posted by flammverit (69 posts) -

@planetary said:

For the most part, games are cheap. People who complain about game prices need to think about how they're spending their disposable income a bit harder.

Consider the price per hour of entertainment, overall. Uncharted's campaign is supposed to be about 11 hours long. That means it costs about $4.50 per hour, which is less than the per-hour cost of a movie at a theater. If you spend about 20 hours in Wipeout, that's $2 per hour, which is around the price per hour for watching some TV series BD titles. If Persona 4 ends up running the full $50, and you get 80 hours of play out of it, that's $0.63/hour, which isn't too far off from the per-hour price of reading a freaking book.

You can imagine broader comparisons. Comics tend to run $4 per issue these days, and take about 15 minutes to read, which gives you a rate of about $16/hour. A decent cigar costs upwards of $20 for an hour's enjoyment. A baseball game might run you $50 for the seat, $20 for parking, so call it $70 for 3 hours, or $23 per hour.

I say again: games are cheap. People like need to stop whining.

That's a very interesting point of view. Thanks for sharing.

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