According to a forecast by Strategy Analytics, around 12.4 million Vita handheld consoles will be sold in 2012. Strategy Analytics believes that sales of 12.4 million Vitas are possible this year, if the device gets a price cut at some point during that period.
"The real value of the PlayStation Vita is its drive for content revenue growth and its strategic position in Sony's entertainment ecosystem", stated Jia Wu, Senior Analyst for Connected Home Devices at Strategy Analytics . "The PlayStation Store will have a vital role in selling games, videos and other content through its online access." "We believe that PlayStation Vita will cause Sony's 2012 portable console software revenue to grow by $800 million compared with 2011."
"Although it's too small a device to turn the company around in terms of financial contribution, we expect it to bring in $2 billion incremental revenue from both hardware and software sales in 2012." "To survive the march of smartphones entering the casual gaming space, Sony needs to achieve the Holy Grail of inventing innovative new gameplay whilst at the same time investing heavily in exclusive content." adds Jia Wu.
I know we are talking about analysts here and man, how often do they get these things wrong, but 12.4 million units worldwide? It is only averaging about 16,000 a week in Japan since launch and that equates to maybe near 1 million in Japan this year (I am sure it will be higher when high profile games are launched, so 1mio is worst case scenario). After the poor showing of the PSP in the west (relatively speaking), I kind of think this number may be a lot on the high side.
What stands out from the comments is what I highlighted - possible this year, if the device gets a price cut at some point - that's a pretty big caveat on his guesswork. Nice one to add "possible" as well. Leaves the door wide open for being wrong. Why the .4mio by the way, seems odd not to just go 12mio. I don't think it was the price cut alone that saw the 2DS spike, but rather certain games. Even at the full price and usual promotional pricing, I think the Vita could sell well, but it needs some killer titles. Monster Hunter will work in Japan, but I can't what will work in the west and no, I don't think CoD will have any effect at all.
What are your thoughts on a likely number for 2012? You can be an analyst as well, just pull a number out of yor arse.