I remember the original forecast by an analyst:
According to a forecast by Strategy Analytics, around 12.4 million Vita handheld consoles will be sold in 2012. Strategy Analytics believes that sales of 12.4 million Vitas are possible this year, if the device gets a price cut at some point during that period.
Now I am reading that Sony still expects the sales to reach 10mio by year end. Naturally I look at the current sales and do a little mathematics.
Currently there are 2mio units out there.
It is currently averaging about 60k units a week at the moment.
That means it will hit around 4mio units if that trend continued for the rest of the year.
That is a hell of a long way from 10, ket alone 12mio. Now I am not part of the doom and gloom brigade who thinks the Vita will fail. It just won't. However, it is still hard to see games that are going to make a huge dent in the predictions. Many still claim that a Call of Duty will save it in the west and I don't agree. In Japan it is JRPG, especially Monster Hunter that will save it and that will happen eventually. But when is eventually? I think the optimism on sales is far exceeded by reality.
To reach the 10mio units sold, it needs to average about 250k a week for the balance of the year. That is a big jump from 60k now and every week the sales average that, the task gets greater, even allowing for the Christmas sales. I don't really see Sony announcing a big price cut soon - it is that price cut I need to become interested (locally it is $350 and I won't join in until it hits $250).
So who thinks it will reach 10mio?