I remember the original forecast by an analyst:

According to a forecast by Strategy Analytics, around 12.4 million Vita handheld consoles will be sold in 2012. Strategy Analytics believes that sales of 12.4 million Vitas are possible this year, if the device gets a price cut at some point during that period.

Now I am reading that Sony still expects the sales to reach 10mio by year end. Naturally I look at the current sales and do a little mathematics.

Currently there are 2mio units out there.

It is currently averaging about 60k units a week at the moment.

That means it will hit around 4mio units if that trend continued for the rest of the year.

That is a hell of a long way from 10, ket alone 12mio. Now I am not part of the doom and gloom brigade who thinks the Vita will fail. It just won't. However, it is still hard to see games that are going to make a huge dent in the predictions. Many still claim that a Call of Duty will save it in the west and I don't agree. In Japan it is JRPG, especially Monster Hunter that will save it and that will happen eventually. But when is eventually? I think the optimism on sales is far exceeded by reality.

To reach the 10mio units sold, it needs to average about 250k a week for the balance of the year. That is a big jump from 60k now and every week the sales average that, the task gets greater, even allowing for the Christmas sales. I don't really see Sony announcing a big price cut soon - it is that price cut I need to become interested (locally it is $350 and I won't join in until it hits $250).

So who thinks it will reach 10mio?

We'll see.

@hershelgeorgelives said:

We'll see.

Yes. Yes we will.

I sure don't. For the life of me I dont understand why they went to the handheld market again. They should have focused on their home console and let the psp just flow until it died. It is a cool piece of tech but the psp was a "cool piece of tech" when it came out and it never really took off either. Oh well I guess, at least they got those tvs that sell like hot cakes……

Clearly you don't know what Christmas is.

@BestUsernameEver said:

Clearly you don't know what Christmas is.

Yes, I'm sure they'll sell an additional 6 million for Christmas because it's totally the gift every kid wants.

I don't see them hitting the mark, but I also don't think Sony wants to be admitting anything about the strength of the system right now. I think they'll probably make a big E3 push to attempt to reinvigorate the system before eventually turning their estimates downward late in the year. I don't think the Vita is a bad system or anything, but 10 mil also seems like a bit of an overestimate.

@BrockNRolla: 3ds was in the exact same situation, didn't have games at launch, and everyone said kids didn't care about it, then it got a couple good games and boom, by the end of the year they made profit and above their predicted sales. Everyone in this industry loves doom and gloom.

I sure don't. For the life of me I dont understand why they went to the handheld market again. They should have focused on their home console and let the psp just flow until it died. It is a cool piece of tech but the psp was a "cool piece of tech" when it came out and it never really took off either. Oh well I guess, at least they got those tvs that sell like hot cakes……

@BestUsernameEver said:

@BrockNRolla: 3ds was in the exact same situation, didn't have games at launch, and everyone said kids didn't care about it, then it got a couple good games and boom, by the end of the year they made profit and above their predicted sales. Everyone in this industry loves doom and gloom.

The 3DS is just one more thing in the Vita's way now though. At least with the 3DS there was no new system already vying for people's attention (unless you count the iPad), so when the games came out, people were ready to invest. Now that many have purchased a 3DS, Sony is going to be hard pressed to convince those people they need another handheld. (Similar to the 360's early start on the PS3)

You're right about people proclaiming the end of the Vita. It's way too early to claim doom and gloom, but things have certainly not gone well for the system and it certainly has a lot in its way to be successful. I'd imagine it will look similar to the PSP; not a blowout success, but enough of a base to make the money back and to foster a community.

At E3 Sony will announce some Vita/PS4 tie-in that will move Vitas, obviously.

Well I fully intend to buy one sometime this year. So... +1. That helps, right?

@Spoonman671 said:

@Sackmanjones said:

I sure don't. For the life of me I dont understand why they went to the handheld market again. They should have focused on their home console and let the psp just flow until it died. It is a cool piece of tech but the psp was a "cool piece of tech" when it came out and it never really took off either. Oh well I guess, at least they got those tvs that sell like hot cakes……

What?

Yeah, what? the PSP was pretty popular worldwide. Unless you just think that US sales are the only ones that matter.

They said they are counting used sales and PSPs sold to people thinking they were buying a Vita cheap.

@BestUsernameEver:

*cough* massive price-cut *cough*

Seriously, why does everyone treat the Vita's price as this massive elephant in the room? Yes, games will help, and yes I'm certain that it'll at least do better come Christmas time; however, that $250 tag is way too much for most people and there's no way a miracle will occur with the system costing that much.

@cexantus: Perhaps, but maybe not. There's no way to tell if the price is the issue over the game selection this early, especially if the thing has sold 2 million with barely any original games.

The PSP's and Vita's shtick of being a portable console experience has never really interested me. I waited for a price cut on the 3DS before I picked that up (and I can't say I play it that much) but I don't even think a price drop will give me a significant enough reason to buy a Vita. That said I hope it does well for them, it's a nice device.

@Contrarian said:

Currently there are 2mio units out there.

It is currently averaging about 60k units a week at the moment.

Where are you getting these numbers?

One word: price. When it was announced that the Vita would cost $250/€250, I thought it was reasonable, but Sony wasn't able to get away from their need to have their own fucking memorycard format. Yes, the base unit costs 250, but if you want a game and a memorycard it'll set you back $350/€350 at the very least. With my 3DS I was able to use one of the SD cards I already owned. But I fear that Sony, like a few years ago with the PS3, is unable to cut the price considering the bad financial situation they're in. The Vita however does need a price cut, or Sony should start offering bundles with a memorycard (16 gb) for $250

Sony can take their memory format and go suck a grenade.

Worldwide? Sure, I see them pulling it off.

Games. In my opinion it all comes down to games. If E3 has a bunch of good games scheduled to release before Christmas then that will be a very good start. I still haven't bought a full fledged Vita game for it yet but I am getting Resistance for sure. I will also get Uncharted as soon as it gets to $40.

A price drop would also help but if they announce one at E3 they better have some sort of program like the 3DS did or I may launch my into the atmosphere.

I do still love mine though. Just having the extra thumbstick makes me happy knowing that the game play on consoles will truly be possible now.

@Sackmanjones said:

I sure don't. For the life of me I dont understand why they went to the handheld market again. They should have focused on their home console and let the psp just flow until it died. It is a cool piece of tech but the psp was a "cool piece of tech" when it came out and it never really took off either. Oh well I guess, at least they got those tvs that sell like hot cakes……

So our handheld PS2 didn't take off, what now?

A handheld PS3! With forty touch screens!

@Cloudenvy said:

@Spoonman671 said:

@Sackmanjones said:

I sure don't. For the life of me I dont understand why they went to the handheld market again. They should have focused on their home console and let the psp just flow until it died. It is a cool piece of tech but the psp was a "cool piece of tech" when it came out and it never really took off either. Oh well I guess, at least they got those tvs that sell like hot cakes……

What?

Yeah, what? the PSP was pretty popular worldwide. Unless you just think that US sales are the only ones that matter.

I have to comment on this as well. The PSP sold something like 70mio units. I really can't see how it was a failure. It is still outselling the Vita. America is just a small part of the sales, but in Japan it was massive towards the end. Even in my country it was a dog, but hey, I helped with having 3 of them. Game sales were pretty ordinary in the west though.

@zombie2011 said:

@Contrarian said:

Currently there are 2mio units out there.

It is currently averaging about 60k units a week at the moment.

Where are you getting these numbers?

The internet.

Is it too high or too low?

I want 10 mio too.

@sungahymn said:

I want 10 mio too.

Is this the Mio you want 10 of?

@Contrarian: Not in your lifetime.

If they have a shit load of games for E3 I guess it's possible.

@sungahymn said:

@Contrarian: Not in your lifetime.

But ..... the Fatal Frame girl is pretty cute!

@Contrarian said:

@sungahymn said:

@Contrarian: Not in your lifetime.

But ..... the Fatal Frame girl is pretty cute!

Who?

@sungahymn said:

@Contrarian said:

@sungahymn said:

@Contrarian: Not in your lifetime.

But ..... the Fatal Frame girl is pretty cute!

Who?

Mio Amakura. You said you wanted 10 mio. Man, I think we have so many crossed wires here ........... I think we should retire. We understand that mio is short for million right?

@Contrarian said:

@sungahymn said:

@Contrarian said:

@sungahymn said:

@Contrarian: Not in your lifetime.

But ..... the Fatal Frame girl is pretty cute!

Who?

Mio Amakura. You said you wanted 10 mio. Man, I think we have so many crossed wires here ........... I think we should retire. We understand that mio is short for million right?

Of course. Have a nice day.

Being a Vita owner, it is frustrating to see how sony is royaly fucking up. They need to stop making games for the PSP, They need to update the firmware to support remote play, ps1 & ps2 games. They need to sort out their memory card shit because its annoying to have a machine which can download full games from psn but that fills up the stupid expensive memory cards. I need more games tired of playing lumines (not really but you know what i mean).

Just been thinking to myself what, if anything, would make me buy a vita. If the price was a little more tempting, if I had cool experiences that weren't watered down console games and the knowledge that support won't go down the toilet in a year or so, I'd consider it. Oh and if the price of memory wasn't effing ridiculous.

Needs more games. A lot of people I know are either waiting until more games get announced or until P4G comes out. I don't think they'll hit 10mil, but I wouldn't be surprised if more games and maybe a small price cut sold a lot more systems.

@Otacon said:

Just been thinking to myself what, if anything, would make me buy a vita. If the price was a little more tempting, if I had cool experiences that weren't watered down console games and the knowledge that support won't go down the toilet in a year or so, I'd consider it. Oh and if the price of memory wasn't effing ridiculous.

Much the same thought process as me. The watered down console experience is what disturbs me the most. It was a large problem with the PSP. And no, I will not buy a PS3 and Vita game of the same thing just for connectivity. I would want a Vita game to be a unique experience, like Disney Mickey with the Wii and 3DS games. Lazy developers will just port a game with little thought.

My friend bought a Vita off some guy, played Uncharted and sold it a week later. I felt so bad for the Vita.....

6 million. I'm calling it.

@Sackmanjones said:

I sure don't. For the life of me I dont understand why they went to the handheld market again. They should have focused on their home console and let the psp just flow until it died. It is a cool piece of tech but the psp was a "cool piece of tech" when it came out and it never really took off either. Oh well I guess, at least they got those tvs that sell like hot cakes……

well i think your not taking into account the market is not an all or nothing thing. I'm sure Sony knows its not taking out nintendo's top spot any time soon if ever but there is still some money to be made. Just because Apple is the top dog in the smart phone and tablet market does not mean everyone should just pack it up. As long as a company is getting a good chunk of the market then they will be happy falling second or third.

Sony really just made the same mistake it did with the PSP even more so since their ads started way too late in my opinion. Now the the vita just needs more games because all people see now is an expensive hardware with few games of interest. But i say give it time with more games and a price drop down the road it will recover because the psp was the same way. But will it hit 10mil i doubt it unless they have a vita blowout at e3