PS Vita is likely to be a bust.

1) How can PS Vita be successful?

a. Game changer

· The iPad was a gamechanger because, until the iPad, no one realized the potential of a product solely based on luxury rather than necessity (i.e. one needs a PC/laptop but one does not "need" an iPad.)

· PS Vita is NOT a gamechanger because, at best, it is the epitome of handheld gaming to a discerning consumer. At worst, it just looks like a better version of 3DS (compare Kinect vs. Move vs. Wii).

b. Supremacy in face of competition

· For handheld gaming, the Vita trumps 3DS across every category/benchmark for both performance and variety of titles.

· Even if this is true, the Vita represents an evolution of handheld gaming. That's like saying one dinosaur is more evolved than another when all dinosaurs are becoming extinct.

c. Conclusion - At best, PS Vita becomes the best handheld device. Too little, too late because gaming is increasingly universal, expanding to demographics that previously would never play any videogames. (See below)

2) Why will PS Vita fail? - The demographic required for its success is becoming both smaller and more competitive than ever before.

a. Non-Gamers (Why are these Birds so Angry!!??)

· Let's face it, every single Vita customer has some experience with videogames.

· If you haven't played Angry Birds then you're not going to buy the PS Vita.

b. "Angry Bird" Gamers

· My parents epitomize this demographic. They play (and even excel at) Angry Birds but with two important caveats.

1) They became aware of Angry Birds only after I introduced it to them. Regardless of the appeal of Vita, if I don't show it then they won't know it.

2) They believe that their success/familiarity with Angry Birds lends credence to their technological savvy. (Hey, son! I'm hip and cool because I can play/beat Angry Birds!!!!)

· For PS Vita folks, this is dangerous because it means that Angry Birds is the exact opposite of a gateway drug.

- People buy Macs because they start by falling in love with their iPods. Here, Angry Birds means you've fulfilled the necessary requirement to being tech savvy.

c. Gamers outside the PS Ecosystem

· This is personal because, as a 360 owner, I've always wanted to enjoy Uncharted, GoW, MGS, and Little Big Planet. I would consider buying a PS Vita if I can experience 90% of the PS3 on a smaller screen.

· CON - The Vita costs $250 with $50/title MINUS Blu-Ray capability.

· But wait, Vita fanboys argue the prices will drop in a few years. The same holds true for PS3 and its games collections as MGS Sons of Liberty already (as of 12/2011) sell for around $20.

· Best Case - PS Vita is an undeniable alternative for on the go PS-exclusive games. Worst Case - Why buy Vita when I can buy PS3?

d. Members of the Playstation Community

· Members of this demographic will buy anything within the Playstation Family.

· CON - These members are not enough for the Vita to establish a sustainable foothold.

3) REMEMBER - For the Vita to succeed, it must court as many demographics as possible. I just have shown that, at best, it can only court one. You heard it here first...Top Ten Failure of 2012 will be the PS Vita.

@HansGruber said:

· The iPad was a gamechanger because, until the iPad, no one realized the potential of a product solely based on luxury rather than necessity (i.e. one needs a PC/laptop but one does not "need" an iPad.)

I may be just having a hard time understanding what you're saying here, but video game themselves are a luxury...

...And there shall in that time be rumors of things going astray, and there will be a great confusion as to where things really are, and nobody will really know where lieth those little things with the sort of raffia work base, that has an attachment…at this time, a friend shall lose his friends’s hammer and the young shall not know where lieth the things possessed by their fathers that their fathers put there only just the night before around eight o’clock...

Great first post, Michael Pachter.

What about the PS3 and 360 owners who want a full gaming experience on the go? Not just Uncharted or Metal Gear, but Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed, hell, Skyrim or Fallout. Those games can exist on the 3DS or on your phone of choice, but not without being seriously hamstrung by the technology and controls.

I'm not saying that's a massive market or that the Vita will be a success, but it's something you didn't mention that I think is important. Since Microsoft doesn't have a handheld in the race and many of the 360's best titles are multiplatform, it would make sense that at least some of the people enjoying those games could be enticed to play them unhindered on a portable device.

@HansGruber said:

You heard it here first...Top Ten Failure of 2012 will be the PS Vita.

Actually I heard it about five minutes after its announcement from pretty much every industry journalist/analyst and their mum.

This thread is likely to be a bust.

1) How can this thread be successful?

a. It can't

@benjaebe: flawless logic totally agree

@benjaebe said:

This thread is likely to be a bust.

1) How can this thread be successful?

a. It can't

I think you got it.

This thread is likely to be a bust.

1) How can this thread be successful?

a. It can't

No offence, but this thread is really fucking dumb. The Vita won't fail because it's got a great lineup of games at launch, and great hardware. That's all people want.

i think vita will be successful but! will not take over the 3dses lead if thats what people think, then their already 11 million in a hole and no console came back from a 11 million hole the highest was wii at 5 million 360s , wii sold 10 million plus in a yr , 360 took 1 and half yrs to hit 10 million , now the gap for that said console is at 32 plus million units still, dispite selling more in the us wii makes up for it in the holidays as you can clearly see,

as for 3ds it has outsold everything since its price cut and with games out already vita will have a hard time , in japan alone, their already reporting issues with the console it self such as inability to turn it off when it freases you have to wait til it dies out according to articles , forgot the name but some one in the vg chart forum posted it so go over there take a look at the article very interisting , im afraid my unit will do the same sony better fix our release up if not im going to be mad, but ya its going to sell but its not going to do what people claim , there is 0 evidence that shows a sign of outselling 3ds even preorders for the games were low , 3 games only made the top 10 in japan 5 7 and 9 spots occupy by psvi while 3ds takes 3 top spots in software and has said to sold 500 k units in this week alone in japan

This thread is bad and you should feel bad.

@benjaebe said:

This thread is likely to be a bust.

1) How can this thread be successful?

a. It can't

Unfollowed (then followed again).

Is that you Steve?

Side note, my head literally hurts from reading that sewage you call thoughts.

Damn people waste a lot of time in their day.

This thread just made me more excited for the Vita. WEIRD HUH?

I know I was so pissed when I heard the Vita didn't play BluRays. -__-

Edit: It's so annoying when people on YouTube disable inbedding. Motherfuckers.

@benjaebe said:

This thread is likely to be a bust.

1) How can this thread be successful?

a. It can't

Nailed it.

Here's my theory: If Vita gets Monster Hunter 4G (because Nintendo has Monster Hunter 4) the whole world blows up and then it's revived by Aerith and the lifestream AND THEN we all wake up with Vitas in our hands with Monster Hunter 4G plus Quatro.

HHHHHAAAANNNNNSSSSS!!!!