Why I think the Xbone will be a dead system within 2 years

1. A lot of people couldn't buy and use one even if they wanted to

Even before you get to consumer choices, brand loyalties, exclusive games, or preference, a big portion of gamers aren't even able to use xbone. By current figures (which seem quite rough) 76 million xboxes have been sold, but there just over 45 million xbox live users - just under half the people who own 360s have NEVER connected their consoles online. That's before you factor in people with multiple accounts, family members/housemates on the same xbox. It's likely the figure is closer to 50%, perhaps over that.

Even if you try to spin it positively and say that half of those users could be forced to connect online if they wished, then that still makes nearly 20% 360 owners who will never be able to use an xbone no matter how desperately they'd like to.

On top of that, many countries at launch (including places like Poland, Portugal, the Ukraine, and most of South America) won't support the online checking system required to play. This probably accounts for a small percentage of 360 users (I can't find clear figures), but when you consider military personnel in foreign bases, imported systems, or those who move countries a lot (like me) the number of people locked out increases. Some of these countries will be supported at later dates no doubt, but it may be too late by then.

Do MS think that TV watchers and skypers will fill in for the gamers unable to use the xbone? Or do they expect fewer people to pay more for the services of the xbone? I doubt they will. And where can there be growth? Any person in any country is a potential PS4 customer, but only a segment of people in a minority of countries are potential xbone buyers.

2. Doing battle not just with Sony, but used games retailers

I've bought and sold used games through ebay, but most people, e.g, kids without credit cards, or people who do their shopping at brick and mortar stores, still give a lot of their business to places like gamestop, game, CEX or mom and pop stores. Now microsoft is going up against used games they're also butting heads with these guys.

The considerable store space dedicated to used games will now be entirely owned by PS4 and Wii u games. There are already rumours of gamestop putting out flyers warning against MS DRM, and it's well-known their staff are incentivised to push used games on people because of the greater profit margins. Now they also have an incentive to push the PS4 onto consumers instead of the xbone. Considering how powerful they were in the last gen with securing exclusive content, partnerships with publishers, and pre-order bonuses, it'll probably count for something that their business depends on the xbone failing.

3. Snowballing success

A larger install base and word of mouth are probably the biggest factors for a successful console. When consoles 'win' the console war, they don't just win, they trounce the opposition (see the PS1, PS2, and NES). This past gen was peculiar in that each of the big three had a substantial slice of the pie. Nobody won, and more importantly, nobody lost.

Since then we've had an economic crash, the rise of mobile platforms, a resurgence of PC gaming through indies and kickstarter, and a big decline in games sales. Even the successor to the Wii is selling poorly, and there probably isn't enough room for two big consoles. By making decisions that ensure the PS4 will survive, Sony may have killed the xbone by default. Exclusives are great, but even the dreamcast had Shenmue.

The PS4 will almost definitely come out of the gate with an advantage due to it's current momentum. Add to that all those who can't connect online, those tempted by the price, the techies who always want the most powerful system, the used games buyers, those in unsupported countries, and it's almost a sure bet that there will be a huge split in favour of the PS4.

When the majority of your friends own a PS4, it makes sense to buy one too - to share games, chat online, and get the most out of a system. When the majority of gamers own a PS4, it makes sense to develop your games for that platform too. The xbone may be an afterthought, or even worse, too risky for developers a year or so into this gen.

I've no doubt MS will pull out the big guns at some point in the first year, but whether they remove the DRM, grab some great exclusives, or lower the price of games - it will probably be too late.

4. All the rest

Price, power, freedom - all the things we've been talking about are big reasons to buy a PS4, but even so, I think a lot of people are underestimating just how huge these things are. Perhaps it's because games media exist in a west coast, big city, always online, gaming-as-a-lifestyle bubble, but there's a silent majority out there who determine what lives and dies in video gaming.

The xbone has more in common with the troublesomely complicated CDI, the overpriced Saturn, or the unfortunately timed and uncompetitive dreamcast, than it does with the innovative, cheap(er), gaming focused 360.

Games journalists and wealthy fans will buy an xbone, but when the far, far larger portion value-conscious, rights-concerned, regular gamers are almost unanimously drawn to the PS4, they may find themselves with just another unsupported failed gaming box to pack in the cupboard alongside with the rest.

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Posted by The_Laughing_Man

MS has invested to much money for that to happen. If it looks like they will take to big of a loss they will change their polices to make people happy.

Edited by msavo

Dead is a harsh term. I think PS4 will sell more units and become the defacto third party platform in terms of sales like the 360 was this generation but the Xbox One will carve out a market for itself. I'm more curious if the Xbox One will lose significant North American marketshare as that was Microsoft's bread and butter this generation, Europe and Japan being a Sony town in terms of consoles.

Posted by BaconGames

If the idea is that we'll have a clear market leader in two years, sure I can see that. Will the Xbox be dead? Most certainly not. People's friends who migrate and are all connected through Live will be a factor, install base from TV households another. Lastly, the box will have at least a few games people will want to play. Personally I foresee a repeat of the PS2 era, with the PS2 the clear leader, the Xbox in a meaningful but not close second, and Nintendo stuck with first party stuff way in the back.

The only factor that could be of any shift is a subsidy on Microsoft's part or some gambit from the Steam end of things.

Edited by bigjeffrey

What amazes me is that there is 46 Million gold members. I'm no industry analyst like Dr.9cupsoftea here, but that means they have internet.

Posted by YukoAsho

I'm with everyone else here. The Xbox One won't be dead, but Sony will become the clear and undisputed market leader this coming gen, simply because their product is more accessible.

@bacongames: I'm not sure I agree that Nintendo will be last in sales this time. Amazon UK did see an 800% spike in Wii U sales after the Xbone announcement, and now with a slate of great first party titles, the next gen looks more like a repeat of the PS1 era, with Sony in the lead, Nintendo in 2nd by default, and Microsoft with the tail end like Sega had with the Saturn. Even that ignores the possible release of a Steam console taking people from MS' remaining market.

Edited by 9cupsoftea

What amazes me is that there is 48 Million gold members. I'm no industry analyst like Dr.9cupsoftea here, but that means they have internet.

Not gold members, live members. The closest stat i found said that 12 million of those were gold members, but that was old.

Faithfully,

Dr. 9cupsoftea

Edited by pweidman

What a laughable contention in the thread title, and then followed by a bunch of hyperbole and guessing in the op. This won't happen first off, you're way underestimating MS TC, and the popularity of xbox in general over the last 7 years, and it wouldn't be good for the industry or gamers anyway if any system went 'dead' in the next two years.

Posted by bigjeffrey

@bigjeffrey said:

What amazes me is that there is 48 Million gold members. I'm no industry analyst like Dr.9cupsoftea here, but that means they have internet.

Not gold members, live members. The closest stat i found said that 12 million of those were gold members, but that was old.

Faithfully,

Dr. 9cupsoftea

I respectfully link you to a article which proves you are incorrect.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2013/04/20/always-on-microsoft-xbox-live-subscriptions-up-to-46m-will-never-be-free/

Posted by mrfluke

http://25.media.tumblr.com/393b4d9f0fbfac002106661b07db9dc9/tumblr_mo7k9qc0u81srwynoo1_500.gif

thats all i have to say

Posted by 9cupsoftea

@bigjeffrey: From the article:

There’s simply no way on earth that Microsoft would ever consider forfeiting 46 million subscriptions (though some are free, limited access Silver variants), even if it would put them on equal footing with one of the PS3′s selling points. This is also on top of the cut they take from everything sold on Xbox Live, and the ads they sell which are plastered all over the dashboard.

Forbes
Posted by Mamba219

@9cupsoftea said:

@bigjeffrey said:

What amazes me is that there is 48 Million gold members. I'm no industry analyst like Dr.9cupsoftea here, but that means they have internet.

Not gold members, live members. The closest stat i found said that 12 million of those were gold members, but that was old.

Faithfully,

Dr. 9cupsoftea

I respectfully link you to a article which proves you are incorrect.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2013/04/20/always-on-microsoft-xbox-live-subscriptions-up-to-46m-will-never-be-free/

Really ought to read the article before you post it as proof that you're right. Fourth paragraph.

[There's simply no way on earth that Microsoft would ever consider forfeiting 46 million subscriptions (though some are free, limited access Silver variants), even if it would put them on equal footing with one of the PS3's selling points.

Edited by Hunkulese

Did you not see that Halo is coming out in the next 2 years?

Once the consoles are released people will stop caring about everything except which console has better games.

You also can't compare the number of live accounts to the number of 360s sold. If you bought a 360 during the first couple years it probably broke on you and you had to buy another one. I've gone through 2 and I know people who've gone through 3 or 4 all with the same live account.

Posted by Mamba219

Did you not see that Halo is coming out in the next 2 years?

Once the consoles are released people will stop caring about everything except which console has better games.

You also can't compare the number of live accounts to the number of 360s sold. If you bought a 360 during the first couple years it probably broke on you and you had to buy another one. I've gone through 2 and I know people who've gone through 3 or 4 all with the same live account.

Speaking from personal experience, I've had two Live accounts and only one 360, both of them Silver accounts. I am probably the minority, but there you go.

Posted by big_jon

I think you are wrong.

Edited by tescovee

lol fanboiz

Posted by zombie2011

I'll bump this in 2 years and we'll se where we are at.

Posted by StarvingGamer

XBOne will still do better than PS4 in America, but do laughably worse in most other territories

Posted by YukoAsho

Did you not see that Halo is coming out in the next 2 years?

Once the consoles are released people will stop caring about everything except which console has better games.

That's not how the world works. Halo by itself isn't going to get people back on board. The PS3 had a bunch of awesome games, but never got the same foothold that the 360 had in America because the 360 became the console everyone got to hang with friends. Not only that, but Halo and Forza are the only first-party games of any note anymore, as Microsoft mostly dismantled its first party development studios in 2010 and now really only has 343 and Turn 10, which each make only one franchise. As such, PS4 will have both outstanding early success and more permanent exclusives because Sony has great first-party development houses.

Getting the early adopters isn't the end all, be all, but it's important to becoming the console everyone's friends have.

Posted by bigjeffrey

@bigjeffrey: From the article:

There’s simply no way on earth that Microsoft would ever consider forfeiting 46 million subscriptions (though some are free, limited access Silver variants), even if it would put them on equal footing with one of the PS3′s selling points. This is also on top of the cut they take from everything sold on Xbox Live, and the ads they sell which are plastered all over the dashboard.

Forbes
@mamba219 said:

@bigjeffrey said:

@9cupsoftea said:

@bigjeffrey said:

What amazes me is that there is 48 Million gold members. I'm no industry analyst like Dr.9cupsoftea here, but that means they have internet.

Not gold members, live members. The closest stat i found said that 12 million of those were gold members, but that was old.

Faithfully,

Dr. 9cupsoftea

I respectfully link you to a article which proves you are incorrect.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2013/04/20/always-on-microsoft-xbox-live-subscriptions-up-to-46m-will-never-be-free/

Really ought to read the article before you post it as proof that you're right. Fourth paragraph.

[There's simply no way on earth that Microsoft would ever consider forfeiting 46 million subscriptions (though some are free, limited access Silver variants), even if it would put them on equal footing with one of the PS3's selling points.

I Respectfully RETRACT my Link as i posted it belligerently as anyone else would do.

Dr., you and your associate have proven me wrong.

Also nope Xbox ONE is future proof, and i can see Cable providers pushing the Xbox ONE like crazy. Once these things actually come out MAYBE you can make this thread again.

Posted by mazik765

Can I just say that this is an interesting post with some solid arguments, but by repeatedly calling it the 'XBone' you just come off as a flaming Sony fanboy. Use better language if you want your arguments to be taken seriously :/ (not saying I don't agree with some of your points, just don't be immature about it)

Posted by awesomeusername

I'll echo everyone else. The console will NOT be dead but only because the CoD and Halo crowd. Halo is still loved by millions and I expect a lot of people to buy Xbones just for those next games. The CoD crowd plays mostly on X360 and they really don't care or pay attention to what us forum users talk about like consumer rights, etc., so a large amount of people will buy the Xbone to play CoD again. But I think Sony will lead this gen, which is better then MS leading.

Who knows though? We'll just have to wait to see what happens in the next 2 years to see where they're shit takes them.

Posted by MonkeyKing1969

I see it this way, Xbox One will sell. It might not sell as well as they had hoped in North America and it might not sell nearly as well in Europe, but it will sell. It will sell because some people simply 'are' invested in XBL for friends and achievements, but mostly because switching anything is entering the unknown....they might know MS is adding restrictions...but they at least understand the XB system.

So long story short, the system will/may have slower sales out of the gate, but when MS doesn't implement most of its DRM restrictions the fans will say, "See this was never going to be bad". Games will either drive, the system or they won't. My guess is that Sony has made up so much ground on services in the PS3 era that the the bump in goodwill will be super effective for new owners come fall. XB360 owners who do in-fact switchover will notice A LOT less of a difference than they were lead to believe. Some some will switch and some won't, but Sony get a bump of sales at least early on. Than it is just anyones game to win or lose based on their what they do.

There are probably a lot of reason that Sony could get a bigger bump, but most of those would ONLY occur if MS insists on their DRM for traded games and for selling games. If they stick with that they won't lose customers from these rules as much as they will from the games media. If you think about the mechanism of how game reviews are created, how freelancers get games to review, and how within a games media office games are traded from hand to hand - you can see why "not trading" will make te review process for Xbox One games abysmal. Can you imagine how Ryan, Brad, Vinny, and Jeff will deal with the added weirdness thsi DRM if MS keeps it? If Jeff bring a disc home it is locked to his machine, so then for Brad to use it he would have to signin as Jeff...or Jeff would have to trade it to him..but...arrge... it is just STUPID. If MS does use the physical disc DRM they will just piss off anyone working at IGN, GameSpot, Giant Bomb, Polygon, etc. The handing over of discs will just be turned into a three ring circus, and jsut saying Xbox One will raise hackles in the games media.

Posted by Subjugation

I think the Gamespot fanboys are leaking into Giant Bomb.

Posted by VRMN

I severely doubt it.

First of all, on the online front, broadband penetration continues to expand and will continue throughout the Xbox One's life cycle. While it might restrict initial growth, early adopters of game platforms probably nearly universally have broadband Internet connections. For those people, the nearly-always-online policies of the system will not make even the slightest difference.

Even on the used games front, while it's a more restrictive experience, I imagine most publishers will continue to enable used disc copies of Xbox One games. Microsoft isn't completely getting rid of used games, though they're definitely headed in that direction. The thing is, publishers want used games dead completely and have a vested interest in making Microsoft succeed. Titanfall is the first example of this; a game from a third party developer that is only on Xbox consoles. Yes, there is the PC version too, but Origin has similar DRM in place.

Snowballing success has some validity, but these things tend to spawn because of games that are released for the systems. The system with the best games early on wins. Which system will that be? Who knows, but I will say that the Xbox-exclusive lineup announced so far interests me more than the PS4's announced exclusives so far. This could easily change, but it's hardly a slam dunk.

The average consumer doesn't pay as much attention to DRM and privacy issues as they probably should, which is why Microsoft feels it can take this bet. They think the gains it will drive from increased profitability per system and game sold and publishers probably wanting a this model to work will overcome the bad marketing position they're in from an informed gamer's standpoint. We'll see one way or the other, but there's nothing that's completely doomed Microsoft yet.

Posted by 9cupsoftea

@mazik765: I don't mean any disparagement when I say xbone - I think it's just a nice abbreviation.

@mamba219: I've had 3 360s due to RRODs, and 4 live accounts. One regular UK account, one for when I lived in Canada, a US one that I made to get some promotion, and another that I made for the free first month of gold. But I don't think you can really count replacement 360s as 'sold' ones.

@vrmn: I somewhat agree with you when you talk about early adopters, but I really think it's worth noting just how many people never had a 360 live account - it's an insane number. I cannot imagine why people wouldn't connect their 360s up if they had the possibility, as do a lot of people who seem to disagree with me. It makes no sense, but it's a fact, a stat released by MS themselves - I'm not just guessing at that. And while none of those people seem to post on forums like this, or be acknowledged at all, they exist and make up a substantial bulk of console buyers. For them it's not a concern, or decision, the xbone may as well not exist for them.

Edited by sdharrison

Well written argument. Microsoft probably will take a massive loss and continue to support the XBone before just letting it die, but I don't doubt it will be a shadow of the 360.

Posted by YukoAsho

I'll echo everyone else. The console will NOT be dead but only because the CoD and Halo crowd. Halo is still loved by millions and I expect a lot of people to buy Xbones just for those next games. The CoD crowd plays mostly on X360 and they really don't care or pay attention to what us forum users talk about like consumer rights, etc., so a large amount of people will buy the Xbone to play CoD again. But I think Sony will lead this gen, which is better then MS leading.

Who knows though? We'll just have to wait to see what happens in the next 2 years to see where they're shit takes them.

I think people are over-estimating Call of Duty's impact in this decision. People bought it on 360 because that was the system they already had - the 360 had a massive lead on the PS3 by the time Modern Warfare came out. However, it's not a reason to stick to a console, as it's a multi-plat title. While timed exclusives on the map packs might help with the hardest core CoD players, it won't have as much effect on the mainstream.

I'll agree with you on Halo, but again, that's only one title, compared to the tens of exclusives Sony will bring to the table, and there's already some souring with regards to Halo now that it's obviously being artificially stretched by MS.

Posted by Humanity

Well written argument. Microsoft probably will take a massive loss and continue to support the XBone before just letting it die, but I don't doubt it will be a shadow of the 360.

Hahaha

Edited by ArtelinaRose

Early game here will be seeing which console sells better, which console has better third party developer/publisher support and which console is easier to develop for. I think that as the years go on we will see the consoles come to a middle ground like it did with this generation but for now it is too early to say which console will do better or worse; on paper it seems like the PS4 is the no brainer choice for any person paying attention but keep in mind that not everybody is.

Microsoft already has a very large fanbase that, if you've ever played a single round of Call of Duty, you will know that they are not the sharpest bulbs in the shed and are hardly the most well informed. Take a gander at how many people that own Xbox 360s currently know about Microsoft's stance on many of the controversial subjects that are being circulated around the internet, and then try to figure out just how many of that number understand them.

Hardware goes into consideration there as well; your average console consumer doesn't know what the hardware specifications in either box means. I personally believe that Microsoft only stating that they have 8 gigs of ram and withholding that it is 8 gigs of DDR3 compared to the PS4's 8 gigs of GDDR5 is intentional. The average console consumer doesn't know what that means and so they use that hoping that people will just see that they both have 8 gigs of ram and will just go "Well obviously they are equal!"

I think that many people will buy an Xbox One believing that it is just an upgraded Xbox 360 which was the "superior system" this generation, not knowing what they are getting into(and after figuring out what's going on, simply not caring).

Posted by Jimbo

@msavo said:

I'm more curious if the Xbox One will lose significant North American marketshare as that was Microsoft's bread and butter this generation, Europe and Japan being a Sony town in terms of consoles.

Totally. I was expecting Europe to be the real battleground this gen, but instead it's going to be the US. Microsoft as good as surrendered Europe during the X1 announcement - 'Check out all these cool features we made, which are only relevant at all if you live in the US. The rest of you can fuck off.'

It's baffling to me that, launching a global product, they put so much emphasis on a backwater sport like American Football. They know the market they want I guess, and it's exclusively the US.

Edited by me3639

Nice presentation, but you are wrong.

Posted by Pachtar_Klepek

@me3639 said:

Nice presentation, but you are wrong.

Incredible and articulate point!

Posted by Lind_L_Taylor

The reason they want always-on Internet access: Patch Tuesday.

I'm going to wait on a Console purchase. I want to know exactly what I'm dealing with before committing. No first to market for me. I don't want to get in there & find out about RROD or hackers tearing down the PS network. Best to wait until after first quarter 2014 & see how it pans out (or peters out).

Posted by EvilNiGHTS

Not so sure about "dead", but I'm worried that their push towards the realisation of their long term goal doesn't have a lot of foresight to it.

Posted by PillClinton

Xbone may retain MS's lead over Sony in NA (although, by a smaller margin this gen), but worldwide, PS4 will dominate without a doubt.

Posted by clumsyninja1

At the end of the day, the deciding factor (besides the price and used games) will be on exclusives who's gonna win. Since both consoles are pretty much the same on hardware specs. The winner will be PC no matter what...

Posted by DrDarkStryfe

If last generation taught me anything is that the enthusiast gamer community does not know a damn thing.

Microsoft will be fine. Yeah, they might not sell as many systems as they did this generation, but their overall profit margin will be much greater with the amount of entertainment services that is tied to the Xbox One.

Posted by The_Laughing_Man

@vrmn: your first line is what Ms is betting on. That fast online spreads around the world fast

Posted by Hunkulese

@yukoasho said:

@hunkulese said:

Did you not see that Halo is coming out in the next 2 years?

Once the consoles are released people will stop caring about everything except which console has better games.

That's not how the world works. Halo by itself isn't going to get people back on board. The PS3 had a bunch of awesome games, but never got the same foothold that the 360 had in America because the 360 became the console everyone got to hang with friends. Not only that, but Halo and Forza are the only first-party games of any note anymore, as Microsoft mostly dismantled its first party development studios in 2010 and now really only has 343 and Turn 10, which each make only one franchise. As such, PS4 will have both outstanding early success and more permanent exclusives because Sony has great first-party development houses.

Getting the early adopters isn't the end all, be all, but it's important to becoming the console everyone's friends have.

It does work like that. Lots of people really like Halo and will buy an Xbox to play the next halo game. In case you haven't been paying attention people like multiplayer shooters and the Xbox will continue to be the kind of multiplayer shooters. Maybe you missed the press conference but the Xbox has quite a few exclusives and it's far more than just a Halo and Forza machine.

Posted by benspyda

I think you underestimate all the people who only play shooters and will automatically just move on to the next Xbox by default. I have a friend who wouldn't dream of getting a PS4 just because its not an xbox.

Posted by SamFo

Anyone who thinks this system will be dead in two years spends too much time on the internet...

Posted by csl316

Earlier models didn't include wifi, so I can say that was a barrier to a lot of people. Wireless adoption will help out a bit this time around.

Posted by phampire

This is a Michael Pachter level of a prediction. I'm sure the xbox one will sell and thrive beyond two years, too many people like Halo, timed exclusives for COD and I'm sure new exclusives will attract buyers, despite the strict DRM and the higher price point. It also helps that a lot of people have had a good experience with the 360, which is demonstrated by the 46 million subscribers.

Posted by darkdragonmage99

@mamba219: lol I know someone who had 187 silver accounts and yes I counted

Posted by niamahai

Both will sell fine. If MS becomes the underdog, it will intensify their push for better games, gamers overall benefit.

The entire 'strict DRM' talk is just... talk. Sony's stand on 'no DRM' is just pure PR at it's finest with no substance at the moment until the console is out.

Always online didn't kill Blizzard's games it won't kill MS. Seeing how Destiny, TitanFall and Division will probably set the industry benchmark for design (MP integration into SP), post 2014 always online is a base feature.

Posted by Humanity

You can also look at how everyone (on the internet) thought that Xbox Live Gold would stop existing next generation because obviously no one would be so stupid as to keep paying $50 a year for something others get for free, when in fact Sony is adopting the very same model and most Sony users are perfectly fine with it. Once these waves of internet outrage die down in the next 5 months and the consoles actually go on sale most people won't care anymore, they will buy them to play new generation games, they will forget about voting with their wallets and life will move on.

If the Wii U still exists in the next two years then the XBO will be just fine.

Edited by Stonyman65

I think Microsoft blew their load too early. They came out with all of this shit and had a major backlash because of it and now that Sony did what they did Microsoft is in a really bad position.

They could go back and not do the stuff that they said they would, but that would be admitting that they're wrong. Microsoft won't do that.

I'm not going to say that they are dead because of it, but I can't help but shake the feeling of another Windows Vista or Windows 8-esque thing happening.

The problem is I don't think Microsoft really knows what they want to do just yet.
Do they want to be a game console or a multimedia console?
Do they want to focus on games, or focus on non-game media?

The big issue is that there are already so many things that already do that exact same thing but without all of the DRM bullshit attached to it. Why would someone choose and XBone over everything else when those other options already exist that can (possibly) do it better?

Posted by pyromagnestir

2 years? The Wii U won't even be a dead system in 2 years...

Edited by ptys

Why people are picking sides this early is pretty silly. Why not wait and see rather than pretend you know all the answers. I'm not getting either till after next E3.

Posted by YukoAsho

I think Microsoft blew their load too early. They came out with all of this shit and had a major backlash because of it and now that Sony did what they did Microsoft is in a really bad position.

They could go back and not do the stuff that they said they would, but that would be admitting that they're wrong. Microsoft won't do that.

I'm not going to say that they are dead because of it, but I can't help but shake the feeling of another Windows Vista or Windows 8-esque thing happening.

The problem is I don't think Microsoft really knows what they want to do just yet.

Do they want to be a game console or a multimedia console?

Do they want to focus on games, or focus on non-game media?

The big issue is that there are already so many things that already do that exact same thing but without all of the DRM bullshit attached to it. Why would someone choose and XBone over everything else when those other options already exist that can (possibly) do it better?

Pretty much. Microsoft won't beat the PS4 (and might lag behind the Wii U) in the game space, and non-gaming devices like Roku, Apple TV and Smart TVs will eat up that space. MS is making a device that, even without the DRM and Kinect garbage, is trying to be everything to everyone. We all know how that happens.

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