Just started playing and I have the exact same issue as you. I kept Carley alive and yet Doug is alive here, despite the stats saying otherwise. And since starting episode two all of my other save games have disappeared so there's no way of going back.
This is extremely frustrating considering how much of an impact your choices can have across all five epsidoes, and in only the second episode a pretty major choice has been altered. How do I know the rest of my choices aren't the same?
I'm playing on PC as well.