If Jeff reviews it, I'm going to guess 5. He's really been into the Modern Warfare games, moreso than WaW or Blops. He was blown away by the fact that you could shoot down UAVs in MW2, so I suspect he'll find something in MW3 that blows his mind. He did say in the Blops review that the formula is starting to wear thin, so a 4 is certainly possible. But I'm still leaning towards 5. I pre-ordered the hardened edition already, so it doesn't really matter what he gives it, but it's fun to guess.
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