My attitude is that if you are spending as much on exclusive titles as you are on the console itself, the investment is justified.
So for example, in Australia games generally cost around $80 new. The consoles vary between $250 and $400, so you would only need four or five exclusives. At launch, they were $650 for the 360 and $1,000 for the PS3, so by my (probably silly) system you would need nine or thirteen exclusives, which is never going to happen, let alone on launch day...
Obviously there are great games for both systems in 2012, but I would only consider arcade or downloadable titles to be secondary experiences, and the PC is also a valid platform. My lists would be:
- Banjo-Kazooie: Nuts & Bolts
- Fable II
- Halo 3 / Reach
- Viva Pinata: Trouble in Paradise
- Heavy Rain
- LittleBigPlanet / 2
- Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots
- Ratchet & Clank Future: Tools of Destuction / Crack in Time
- Uncharted 2: Among Thieves