Yes, I expect straight-and-simple multiplayer to be free again, but anything more to be part of PS+. I have a PS+ membership for all the benefits it offers above multiplayer. I do not have an XBL Gold account anymore because the only reason to have it is multiplayer. I very rarely play online, so paying for multiplayer is not something I am prepared to do. If Sony or Microsoft want my money, I am willing to give it to them, but I need a service I actually use.
Now, if Microsoft expects their next system to always be on and to fully benefit from that on single-player games you need a Gold account, then that's just one more reason to pass on the next Xbox. Of course, I suspect with both systems, a lot of the implementation of online benefits will be left to the publishers.
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