Los Angeles Black Quest Stats
By trace 34 Comments
It was just another day in the sleepless city of lights. Rainy and foggy, as always. As I leaned back in my chair, sipping my glass of whiskey and pondering my next case, it reminded me a little of the corruption that plagued this city. Rain gets on everyone, and the fog only clouds the truth behind layers of grey.
Before I had the chance to think up more awful symbolism to describe the city, the silhouette of a woman appeared in my doorway. A real doll, this one. Femme fatale to the core, and I'm not just saying that because of the quest. I could tell she wanted something. Something...urgent.
"Little late to come in here lookin' for something, miss." It was only 7:00 PM, but I wasn't used to visitors. Happens when you forget to advertise your services.
She sighed softly and slowly stepped towards my desk. "What I am looking for always comes late, darlinge." She had a way with her words, and an accent that I simply couldn't place. "I am in the neede of services to finde something near and dear to my hearte."
Now I was completely confused. "Is...is that a lisp, or why are you talking like th-"
"Never mind the way I talke, detective. I neede you to find me...informatione on a passion of mine."
"Seriously, dame, I don't know what your angle is, but that impediment of yours is givin' me the willies. Nobody says those words like that, sweetheart."
She pulled out a small envelope and set it on my desk before turning to walk away. "Just give me the statistics on...the queste. I'll expect dailye reports from you untile it leaves thee citye."
"OK, seriously, now you're not even trying with that 'e' thing, miss."
She shot me a glare before walking out of my life. I didn't know if I'd see her again, or if I could trust her...but the contents of the envelope were too good to ignore. I may be a man of strong moral character, but I never turn down a payment of bonus XP, not even in this city.
First, though, I had to give her a sampling of my work.
The gold line is our 4,000 user goal, the red line's the progress we need to exceed to succeed, and that bright green line is our progress thus far. In the fog of the night, sometimes colors aren't what they seem.
We're just now touching the red line we needed to stay above for success. With one more day to go, our chances are pretty much gone.
Now, I just had to give her the numbers based on the latest graph update. I'm not sure she really wanted them.
- We're about 132.5 hours into this quest, with 26.5 hours to go.
- Over the last day, we earned 87 more completions. That's about a 18% drop-off in completions from yesterday.
- At the end of yesterday, we needed at least 14.34 completions per hour to succeed.
- Our current overall rate is 25.3 completions per hour. In the last hour, our average was closer to 4.7 completions per hour.
- From this point forward, we need at least 24.33 completions per hour to succeed. Since tomorrow's the final day, we need all 644 remaining completions within the next 26.5 hours or so.
- If the overall rate remained stable, we'd complete this quest in another 25.5 hours. If the short-term rate stays as it is, we'd fail, attaining only 3,479 completions.
- My Pessimist's Estimation, using that 18% daily drop-off, predicts we'll fail, earning only 3,427 completions.
- My CURVE estimate still thinks we'll fail, and using a second calculation that I'm testing, it now predicts we'll earn somewhere between 3,456-3,472 completions.
- My Arbitrary Estimation of Success is 0%. Four days in a row where I agree completely. That might be a record!
Any questions, requests, or criticisms? Post them here. I'll be glad to respond, though I'm usually slow and end up responding around the time I update the stats each night.
Tomorrow, she expected more. I knew I had to deliver, and I didn't want to hear any lip from her. That accent of hers was more unsettling than a dark alleyway.
Tomorrow, it would be:
