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Punk1984

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2011 Hindsight: The Xbox in 2011

What Microsoft did right in 2011

2011 will go down as one of the best years for the Xbox platform ever. Much like the PS2 in 2004, the Xbox 360 has hit that sweet spot where the system is selling itself without the need of great exclusives or much push form the company. It has really landed the network effect where Xbox 360's are selling just because the install base is big. People are buying Xbox 360's because their friends have them.

Microsoft has also done a good job of pushing multi-platform games as 'exclusives' basically grabbing the public and claiming "Yeah you can play this on the other boxes but it is best on Xbox." Whether or not that is true is totally immaterial, it works. I've talked to more than one person who thinks Skyrim is only on the Xbox 360. (not PS3 and not PC) While their advertisements are not as funny or cool as Sony's, Microsoft really nails the audience mind share. When you see a Kinect ad you know ti is a Kinect ad before the little camera shows up. This is important in growing their install base, at this point Microsoft is selling the sizzle not the steak but man that sizzle sells.

Microsoft has also done a good job keeping the Xbox 720 rumors under wraps and out of the mainstream media. The only think I see derailing Microsoft is if they unveil that new box. Microsoft needs to ride this wave until it land on the beach, announcing a new platform would be hilariously dumb.

What Microsoft did wrong in 2011

One word 'Coast.'

With the gutting of Microsoft Game studios Microsoft is taking a short term view of the business. They are riding the wave of popularity but they are not actively looking for the next big wave. Or at least they are not being open about looking. The view from the outside seems to be that they are going to ride this pony until it can't go further and then jump onto the next thing.

I'm not saying they shouldn't enjoy being on 'top' but they need to watch out because the PS3 is nipping at their heels. A high reliance on Kinect is hurting the hardcore market. Xbox rode big third party multi-platform games in 2011 and that isn't a good plan to maintain an audience of hardcore gamers. In 2011 all the reasons for hardcore gamers (except 1) to buy a new Xbox 360 were on the other consoles as well. That isn't good.

Wrapping it up and looking ahead

There are no big names coming out this spring, I'm not talking about no games being announced I'm talking about the fact that we are not even hearing murmurs of anything. Admittedly this is the time in a console's life cycle where you enjoy the investment but I'm afraid Xbox fans may spend next year in the same boat Nintendo fans are spending 2011 in.

I still think it is way to early for Microsoft to put out its next console in 2012, I think you'll see an announcement in 2013 and a release around holiday 2014. The quietness on the exclusive software line up is troubling because consoles need exclusives.

Also Microsoft needs to kick Live in the pants it they want it to stay relevant. At the moment people are signing in because that is where their friends are; but Sony is offering a similar service on the other console for free. The game quality on PSN is equal if not better than Live and PSN is slowly checking off the same boxes Live has. One day, maybe in the next console generation, it will come down to the only difference between PSN and Live being that Live costs more. When that day shows up Microsoft is in very hot water.

Unlike Nintendo's future Microsoft's is largely in their own hands. Sony spent 2011 doing everything they could to win the most customers, Nintendo spent the year doing everything it could to lose the mos customers and Microsoft spent 2011 just having the most customers.

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plaintomato

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Edited By plaintomato

@Punk1984 said:

@plaintomato: It wasn't a joke and it is true; Sony leads the exclusives race in the download space as well as the full retail space. I mean why are you so hard set on Live being better?

Well, now that you are talking games, it's pretty much the consensus that PS3 is dominating the full retail release exclusives thing now, and maybe or maybe not as far as new "arcade" type titles...I don't know because I haven't seen enough that interests me personally, but that's just a matter of taste. But the bottom line on 360's superiority in the downloadable games category, to me, would pretty much be the whole horde of last gen games available on the 360 vs the whole horde of PS1 games on the PS3 - that's a pretty BIG "games" tick mark in favor of the 360, especially with arcade more or less being neck in neck; the fact that Sony just said feck-you to backwords compatiblity after touting it so much at the start of the current gen.

BTW, downloadable games are part of Microsoft's free "silver" service - so they aren't what we're talking about when we talk about Live as something you pay for. As far as the features of Live "gold" vs PSN...it's pretty much no contest in favor of 360, for many of the reasons I mentioned in my first post and more. Even Sony knows it. And the reason is likely because "gold" is a pay service. I'm all for "free", but seeing PSN vs Live tells me that the fee is worth it if what Sony delivers is what you get for "free".

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Edited By Punk1984

@ProfessorEss: Really when I said lead in the reply I meant how they have a larger number or exclusive titles with a wider variety.

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ProfessorEss

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Edited By ProfessorEss
@Punk1984 said:

@ProfessorEss: Which metric would you use? Both notched pretty solid (not great) metacritic averages, but neither lit the sales charts on fire. Is that because people weren't buying anything at that time or buying something else. Also the exclusive is still something that we use to differentiate one platform from another. Also if high sales is your only defining measure of quality you must play a lot of "Just Dance."

Also weren't we talking about downloadable titles?

You said leading the downloadable and retail space so I approached the retail, though I wouldn't be surprised to see the XBLA to PSN sales numbers to be along the same lines.
 
No I do not define quality by sales, I define success by sales. I thought we were discussing success, not our subjective opinions of quality.  
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@ProfessorEss: Which metric would you use? Both notched pretty solid (not great) metacritic averages, but neither lit the sales charts on fire. Is that because people weren't buying anything at that time or buying something else. Also the exclusive is still something that we use to differentiate one platform from another. Also if high sales is your only defining measure of quality you must play a lot of "Just Dance."

Also weren't we talking about downloadable titles?

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@Punk1984 said:

@ProfessorEss: Raw data? No. However off the top of your head name studios that work solely on Xbox Live arcade games, now name studio that work on PSN exclusives.

When high profile exclusives like Infamous 2 and Resistance 3 fail to break 1 million sales I think one is forced to ask themselves if number of exclusives or number of exclusive studios is really all that valuable a metric.

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Edited By Punk1984

@ProfessorEss: Raw data? No. However off the top of your head name studios that work solely on Xbox Live arcade games, now name studio that work on PSN exclusives.

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Edited By ProfessorEss

@Punk1984 said:

Sony leads the exclusives race in the download space as well as the full retail space.

Do you have any data to back this up?

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Edited By Punk1984

@plaintomato: It wasn't a joke and it is true; Sony leads the exclusives race in the download space as well as the full retail space. I mean why are you so hard set on Live being better?

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@Punk1984 said:

@plaintomato: XBL is not leagues better than PSN, while I agree parties are nice, the content on PSN is probably the best on a console download service. The real advantage that Live has is that there are more people on it playing online.

Is that a joke? Because if so, I don't get it. I play exclusively on PS3 right now for other reasons and I'm no fanboy of any corporation, but I had a number of years on Xbox before spending the last year and half primarily on PS3 and...well, the list of reasons and ways Live is better than PSN is longer than I care to detail. Maybe if you are japanese, or like games from two generations ago, maybe the PSN content is better, but otherwise the idea that PSN has better content is laughable, and outside of content, it's no contest at all. Live is just better and I can't really think of any solid reasons to dispute that outside of Portal 2.

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Edited By Punk1984

@phish09 said:

I'd consider it to be a more complete overall product than the Sly Collection (which I also played this year), or the SOTC/Ico collection, which are definitely better games, but wouldn't the average team Ico fan have preferred Last Guardian to be released instead? Same thing really.

You guys are really taking me to task with this post. The 'non-issue' comment was more about the fact that there hasn't been any fraud linked to the leak. So while your info maybe out and about no ill came of it. As for the loss of service for a month, it came back and hasn't happened since. In terms of Sly and SOTC/Ico those are both collections you are getting for the same price as Halo and there were other PS3 exclusives releasing around the same time so you had other options, but yes I would rather have had "The Last Guardian."

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@Punk1984: The only other Sony exclusive I played this year was LBP2, which I liked, but it really wasn't any better than the first one, at least if you're not into the level creation stuff. I don't know if PSN being offline for over a month can be considered a non-issue, especially given the fact that games like LBP2 depend so much on it. I'd consider that to be a pretty huge fuckup, one which Sony even acknowleged at their E3 press conference. I'm not saying they handled the situation poorly, merely that it was a poor situation for the PS3.

Also, I don't think Halo fans want a brand new Halo every year because that leaves very little room for innovation (see COD or Assassins Creed), so maybe a solid remake like Anniversary is what the doctor ordered. Plus it's not like they were charging $60 and acting like it was a new game. I'd consider it to be a more complete overall product than the Sly Collection (which I also played this year), or the SOTC/Ico collection, which are definitely better games, but wouldn't the average team Ico fan have preferred Last Guardian to be released instead? Same thing really.

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Edited By Punk1984

@Axxol: I really miss the last two generations, the one thing that having one clear winner did was totally kill all the fanboy flame wars. On the playground no one ever said "N64 is the best system, Playstation is horrendous" after a certain point in time.

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@Punk1984 said:

@Axxol: Having said that: I think we need t-shirts that just say "Yeah what about the RROD/PSN HACK!"

That and shirts that say, "Never Forget".

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Edited By Punk1984

@Axxol: Having said that: I think we need t-shirts that just say "Yeah what about the RROD/PSN HACK!"

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@Punk1984 said:

@Axxol:

Maybe what I should have said is: I think Microsoft has learned the RROD lesson and they won't do it again, a lot like how Sony has learned from the hack.

Ah, okay. Sorry about my rant.

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@Axxol:

Maybe what I should have said is: I think Microsoft has learned the RROD lesson and they won't do it again, a lot like how Sony has learned from the hack.

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@Punk1984 said:

@Axxol: I still think at this point the RROD is kind of a forgotten thing. Much like the Sony hack give ti awhile and it will only be fanboy fodder. Microsoft needs to wait until people are not buying 360s to introduce the 720 (or whatever they call it, it will be a number higher than 4)

It isn't fanboy fodder. These are issues that need to fixed. Simply writing off an issue like the RROD is doing ourselves, the consumers, a disservice. Consumers need to put they're feet down and let these companies know that they won't tolerate things like this. These issues need to be taken into consideration when the next consoles are built. Are you just going to shrug and label it fanboy fodder when your next-gen console croaks? I would like to think that some of that money Microsoft has made this gen will go toward creating a console that doesn't die like its predecessor.

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Still_I_Cry

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@Punk1984 said:

@Still_I_Cry said:

@Punk1984: Well tell that to the pandas in Kinectimals!

It'll be in the post launch DLC pack with armor

Oh I see. Well fine then.

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@Still_I_Cry said:

@Punk1984: Well tell that to the pandas in Kinectimals!

It'll be in the post launch DLC pack with armor

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@Punk1984: Well tell that to the pandas in Kinectimals!

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@Still_I_Cry: Panda are really violent and territorial though...

@Axxol: I still think at this point the RROD is kind of a forgotten thing. Much like the Sony hack give ti awhile and it will only be fanboy fodder. Microsoft needs to wait until people are not buying 360s to introduce the 720 (or whatever they call it, it will be a number higher than 4)

@phish09: I'm curious what was the other Sony game you played this year? Also the Sony hack turned out to be a non-issue and I think they handled it appropriately. (we messed up, here is some freebies we will do better next time) Yeah Gears of War 3 was good (better than 2?) but Halo just kind of proves my point. Do you think Halo fans wanted Halo 4 in 2011 or Halo with a new skin? Microsoft took the easy way out with 2011's Halo title.

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@Punk1984: Yeah...they are kind of "just meeting the bar", but at least they are. I don't know if I'd consider Sony or Nintendo to be anywhere near the bar at this point. Sure, Sony has put out a few good first party games this year (Uncharted being the only one that really met my expectations)...as has Microsoft (Gears and Halo being solid as usual), but Sony also compromised millions of people's personal information, whereas M$ seems to be keeping that shit tight...hence why I have my credit card info on XBL still and not PSN. Again, MS is just meeting expectations, but at least they aren't fucking up in the ways that Sony has been with their online service or Nintendo has been with their software lineup (or lack thereof).

Basically, what I'm saying is that the only good thing that I can say about the 360 in 2011 is that I don't really have anything negative to say about the 360 in 2011.

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Microsoft needs to make sure that there aren't any problems with their new console like the 360's RROD. I've had two regular 360's that died on me and now I have the Slim version. A console should last longer than 3 years, especially when it's being taken care of. Microsoft did replace my first 360, but the second one was a few months out of warranty, but I didn't mind buying a Slim. With that being said, my PS3 is almost 4 years old and I haven't had any problems. I just want Microsoft to make good use of the money we've thrown at them and develop a console that isn't notorious for dying all the time.

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I sense fanboyism in the subsequent posts.

Also, I think they did a great job this year.

I would also like to see Kinect games becoming grittier and more well done. By well done, I mean really pushing the graphics and giving us a good story (more of a general desire not specific to Kinect though). Lastly, I don't want to pet a fucking panda, I want to decapitate someone with my bare hands and watch their life fluid spurt out of their stump.

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@plaintomato: XBL is not leagues better than PSN, while I agree parties are nice, the content on PSN is probably the best on a console download service. The real advantage that Live has is that there are more people on it playing online.

In terms of focusing on the next box I feel that is a horrible misstep because that next box won't land until 2013 and if it shows up any earlier it will cannibalize the 360. I think you will see a redesigned 360 before you see the new Xbox.

@ColinWright: i think the third parties matter more this generation because the 360 is top of the block and it doesn't have exclusives. If the 360 was churning out exclusives like Sony does first party development would still matter. Since the Xbox doesn't have a lot of exclusives the audience has decided that doesn't matter.

@phish09: Isn't that kind of sad? I mean that they are just meeting the bar? You won't see games like InFamous or Uncharted on the Xbox because Microsoft isn't interested in pushing internal development. Instead of pushing their tech forward they are just meeting expectations.

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I somehow played about 50 XBOX 360 games this year, two PS3 games and one Wii game, and a handful of indie PC games....yet I can't really name anything that the 360 has done to impress me other than just play all the games that I want to play.

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Edited By ColinWright

It's kind of weird how this is one of their best years, yet they only had one huge exclusive. It just goes to show how much more the third parties matter. Also, Microsoft getting Ueda would be the weirdest thing ever.

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They're not riding the wave. They've just shifted a lot of effort to the next box already. That's my thinkings.

And Live is leagues better than PSN in many ways: the interface, content, arcade, last gen games for download, other services and etc. When it comes to the core functionality - multiplayer within a game - they're more or less the same, but MS still has some advantages there (parties). People will gladly pay a small fee for that, and that's why they do. I don't even have a 360 anymore, I'm on PS3 until the next box comes out, but I can tell you Live is better than PSN.

My recommendations for MS would be:

Put plenty of power in the new box. This is a bad recommendation that they won't listen too because they want to make money by selling a cheaper box in mass quantities. I get it. But I for one would gladly pay $600 out the gate for more powerful tech to set the next console standard - even for PC players this is important because so many games start with console specs.

Open the feck up. Give us cross-platform with PC, access to mods, awesome third party peripherals (the wheel for your box is a joke), more and faster developer support, Sony's Blue Ray (I guess they could go to memory cards that load onto a hard drive?), and let us transfer music and etc without having to rip it from an obsolete compact disc. Quit being such a protectionist monster bitch corporation and just make a product everyone will have every reason to want.

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@DarthOrange: Oh I see what you did there ;)

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Your user name is blue and that means your a fanboy!!!!!!!

lol i kid but its true that Halo 4 is the only confirmed exclusive they have for 2012. At least Sony still has quite a few exclusives to look forward to like Twisted Metal, Sly 4, and Last Guardian. Microsoft needs to step there game up!

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@MideonNViscera:On the plus side Xbox still has the best yearly exclusive 'Live."

@ProfessorEss: Microsoft does want Japan really bad. Since their "timed exclusivity" deals only went so far this generation maybe the answer is for them to just start buying Japanese studios out right.

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Edited By ProfessorEss

@Punk1984 said:

...but are there really that many more studios to buy?

This is Microsoft and Sony we're talking about, there's always someone to be bought :)

...maybe they're gonna buyout Ueda :O

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@ProfessorEss: I agree with the 'strategic downtime' sentiment but the major problem is the gutting of Microsoft game studios. Where are the exclusives going to come from the push the next Xbox? When Microsoft wants to put the pedal down again what resources are there for them? The could go through another mad dash of studio acquisitions like they did in 2004-2007 but are there really that many more studios to buy?

Shuttering studios doesn't say 'strategic downtime' to me it says 'lazy myopic decision making.'

You do make a valid point though about taking a bit of a breather and about how Sony can't keep the petal to the metal forever.

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I think if they have anything truly cool up their sleeves it'll be saved for the next box. The rest of the 360's lifespan will be Kinect pushing, multi-platform titles, and Halo 4. (which is probably doomed already after seeing Halo fans react to Reach) That's all I see coming anyway.

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I agree with your assessment but I don't think I agree with your recommendations. I know as core gamers we want to see these companies with their pedals to metal at all times but looking at the big picture, coasting may be the best strategy for them right now. I think they've cemented the idea of the 360 as a core gaming system deeply enough that it'll take a lot more than a year of coasting and pushing Kinect for people to start changing their minds.

Why do people coast when they're in a good position? To save up energy for a big push when they really need it. Sure Sony's rolling up on them pretty hard but Sony's also been pushing pretty hard to get there while Microsoft may very well be biding their time, storing up resources for a big push when it is needed most. I'll hand it to Sony, they've had some rough times lately and they've handled things pretty well considering, but one has to wonder how winded all of this has left them - and if/when/how MS plans to take advantage of their possibly tired competitor.

The fact that they've coasted through the year on multiplats and a select few exclusives and still managed to sell a good number of units, a bunch of Kinects, a pile of software (exclusive or otherwise) and scoop up mad-money with Gold subscriptions probably looks pretty good from where they're sitting. I could be totally misreading what they are doing, but I think sometimes we mistake strategic downtime with complacency and frankly after the sound beating the original XBox was given I can't imagine that Microsoft's XBox division, despite its victories, has forgotten how tough this game really is.

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@BlinkyTM: I actually think they need to play up Kinect integration in hardcore titles like Sony has with Move. Adding it in to normal titles kind of makes it a trojan horse to get the core using it.

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I agree with your assessment.

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Cool. Totally agree with your second point about them just riding the wave and not looking ahead. They need to focus more on fine tuning the Kinect and putting out games that are actually good for the Kinect. Ryse looks pretty awesome though.

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What Microsoft did right in 2011

2011 will go down as one of the best years for the Xbox platform ever. Much like the PS2 in 2004, the Xbox 360 has hit that sweet spot where the system is selling itself without the need of great exclusives or much push form the company. It has really landed the network effect where Xbox 360's are selling just because the install base is big. People are buying Xbox 360's because their friends have them.

Microsoft has also done a good job of pushing multi-platform games as 'exclusives' basically grabbing the public and claiming "Yeah you can play this on the other boxes but it is best on Xbox." Whether or not that is true is totally immaterial, it works. I've talked to more than one person who thinks Skyrim is only on the Xbox 360. (not PS3 and not PC) While their advertisements are not as funny or cool as Sony's, Microsoft really nails the audience mind share. When you see a Kinect ad you know ti is a Kinect ad before the little camera shows up. This is important in growing their install base, at this point Microsoft is selling the sizzle not the steak but man that sizzle sells.

Microsoft has also done a good job keeping the Xbox 720 rumors under wraps and out of the mainstream media. The only think I see derailing Microsoft is if they unveil that new box. Microsoft needs to ride this wave until it land on the beach, announcing a new platform would be hilariously dumb.

What Microsoft did wrong in 2011

One word 'Coast.'

With the gutting of Microsoft Game studios Microsoft is taking a short term view of the business. They are riding the wave of popularity but they are not actively looking for the next big wave. Or at least they are not being open about looking. The view from the outside seems to be that they are going to ride this pony until it can't go further and then jump onto the next thing.

I'm not saying they shouldn't enjoy being on 'top' but they need to watch out because the PS3 is nipping at their heels. A high reliance on Kinect is hurting the hardcore market. Xbox rode big third party multi-platform games in 2011 and that isn't a good plan to maintain an audience of hardcore gamers. In 2011 all the reasons for hardcore gamers (except 1) to buy a new Xbox 360 were on the other consoles as well. That isn't good.

Wrapping it up and looking ahead

There are no big names coming out this spring, I'm not talking about no games being announced I'm talking about the fact that we are not even hearing murmurs of anything. Admittedly this is the time in a console's life cycle where you enjoy the investment but I'm afraid Xbox fans may spend next year in the same boat Nintendo fans are spending 2011 in.

I still think it is way to early for Microsoft to put out its next console in 2012, I think you'll see an announcement in 2013 and a release around holiday 2014. The quietness on the exclusive software line up is troubling because consoles need exclusives.

Also Microsoft needs to kick Live in the pants it they want it to stay relevant. At the moment people are signing in because that is where their friends are; but Sony is offering a similar service on the other console for free. The game quality on PSN is equal if not better than Live and PSN is slowly checking off the same boxes Live has. One day, maybe in the next console generation, it will come down to the only difference between PSN and Live being that Live costs more. When that day shows up Microsoft is in very hot water.

Unlike Nintendo's future Microsoft's is largely in their own hands. Sony spent 2011 doing everything they could to win the most customers, Nintendo spent the year doing everything it could to lose the mos customers and Microsoft spent 2011 just having the most customers.