@patrickklepek , you're not wrong in the assertion that games historically sell the most at release and then taper off, but there are some assumptions embedded in that observation that deserve examination. For instance, is it fair to look at release date as a sole factor in the shape of the sales graph, divorced from the PR cycle? That is to say, is the shape of the graph the same when the promotional slot comes 3 days later, or does the new ad give a sales bump?
Assuming there are two kinds of customers -- those who've heard of the game and already decided to buy it on release day, and those who hear about it through advertising and decide to buy it -- why should it necessarily matter that the ad came "late"? The first group is already sold, so the ad can only serve to remind them. If they forget on release day, it will still serve that purpose later. As far as the second group is concerned, the game was released when they heard about it. It's a digital product, so it's not like lukewarm sales could convince a retailer to pull shelf space, and it's not as though positive reviews disappeared during that time. Is the supposition that there's a significant number of people who look at an ad, read a positive review, then decide not to buy it only because the review was 3 days old? Again, I don't know what the shape of the graph looks like, but the vast majority of historical data comes from PR cycles that are synced with release, so it might be hard to know.
It seems more realistic to me that the decision by Microsoft to hold off on advertising the product is deliberate and shrewd. As you stated, they get guaranteed revenue from 3rd party ads. And in the meantime, they can gauge the eventual success of a promotion for a game by the number of sales it gets without advertising, as a proportion of total expected sales after they run the ad. I.e. "this game sold x copies on Friday based on hype alone. Our marginal return for additional sales if we advertise it can be expected to be y, which is greater than the revenue for selling that space to a movie ad." It saves them the lost revenue if the game is a flop despite advertising, and I can't think of a way it loses them significant sales if it's a success.
I don't have any of this data. You might. Microsoft definitely does. But if you're really worried about the way they're treating their marketplace, maybe it's worth digging a bit deeper.
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