I still feel like Skyrim could pull of GOTY. While Jeff and Ryan love the game, it is SILLY, and it might seem kind of weird to them to award it with GOTY when a more traditional and acceptable game like Skyrim is out there. Plus there's Patrick who I believe will pull for Skyrim. Vinny, as always, is a wildcard.
Never watch Hard Eight. It's unbearable. Boogie Nights is the easiest to watch, but Magnolia is amazing if you can overlook some of the weirdness. Punch Drunk Love is a type of weirdness that is hard to overlook.