Alright the online can be totally gamed it seems, just had a fight where the other guy chose Valasquez (like every single person playing Heavyweight) and I go Dos Santos. I land about 300% more significant strikes than him and all he does is take me down and try two really bad sub attempts. He seriously attempted somewhere around 25 takedown attempts in a single round at one point. The fight ends up going the distance and he wins by decision, likely because he has so many takedowns (you can only defend so many), even though I landed vastly more significant strikes and defended 90% of his takedowns and reversed/got up from the successful takedowns within a few seconds. So yeah kind of salty but also totally annoyed that it seems like you can cheat the scoring system with pointless takedowns.
So it really is a simulation.