I think its 10gb for a new vista install give or take. The big problem is not updates really but the winsxs folder in the windows folder. Its basicly the windows compatibility folder and fix for dll hell. I have seen a few with that folder being 10-15gb. Iits sitting around 7gb on my machine at the moment. So to answer your question i think 20 should be the smallest you could go with but recommend 25-30.
Buy some memory. Its so cheep not too. Most likely you have the weird amount because of integrated graphics which if your not using, turning it off will give you back that 8MB.
You also shouldn't lose any quality from hdmi to dvi. Not sure about video capture over hdmi on the ps3. I think the GB Crew use component because of some weird HDCP thing even when not playing movies. I will see if i can find where they said that.
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