In the Beta it literally says in the description for every crate that the drop rates are for the Beta only and do not reflect the rates of the actual release. To me, it seems super weird to extrapolate a bunch of math from something that tells you explicitly not to do so.
I know everyone thinks youtubers are fucking geniuses who always crack the code, but keep in mind that EA/DICE invested years and tens of millions of dollars into this game and have a lot of smart people trying to figure out how to maximize profits. They aren't going to crater their game by making players grind for 3600 hours so they can maybe squeeze a few more bucks out of players. Nobody will play that game, everyone will drop it immediately or never purchase it when reviews are bad because of it. Its in their best interest to make a great game that keeps people coming back so they maximize opportunities to upsell them lootboxes. Ultimately it's all about money because that's their job, if you think with that perspective you'll never be surprised.
While its possible that the loot crates will be pretty gross, and there will almost certainly be some pay2win issues because the upgrades are straight up better, ultimately we will have to wait and see how the final release comes together. I would encourage everyone concerned to not preorder and instead wait for initial impressions and reviews before jumping in.
Also, as an aside. I recently learned that all the DLC content for the game is going to be free, and they are using the lootboxes as a way to generate additional income instead of selling DLC. I think that is an interesting idea, and it would be nice to have every player able to participate in everything, but it will really come down to how the core game is affected by the desire to sell lootboxes.
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