I think only Dawnguard and Hearthfire are up for discount. Which means you can easily snag both of those in one go, depending on how much is stricken off the cover price. I say that because Hearthfire is less an expansion and more a novelty feature you can add if you wish (typically going at 400 points), but ultimately doesn't add a ton to the net experience.
More broadly: Dawnguard and Dragonborn achieve different things. Dawnguard is probably more akin to the Fallout example. It's one questline, some added wrinkles here and there. New Skill Trees and a transformation. I was sold on Dawnguard because it added craftable arrows (for my character--an archer--a real gamechanger!). But your mileage might vary depending on how interested you might be in vampire stuff.
Dragonborn is more substantial. It adds an entirely new provincial landmass for you to explore. This includes a major questline and dozens of subquests, new enemies, new bits of lore, and some newly-added armor/weapon materials for crafting. Beyond this, Dragonborn allows you the option to reset your distributed skills, something I felt was sorely missing from the vanilla experience.
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I have a hard time saying one is objectively better than the other, simply because they have different goals altogether. For a discount, Dawnguard is a fun package that shouldn't take you an especially long time to enjoy. Dragonborn will be more rewarding overall, but I don't think it's going to be discounted in this sale.
To be fair, the vanilla game will suit you fine if you haven't spent any time with it yet.
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