GW2, Diabo 3, and TOR a WoW killing triumvirate?

#1 Posted by CL60 (16906 posts) -

Now, a lot of people say one single game will be a WoW killer, and it's never true, but with WoWs recent declining numbers every month, and Diablo 3, GW2, and TOR all presumably coming out soon, and all will most likely successes. Does anybody else think those 3 games together may make a major impact on WoWs subscriber base? Not really one that will kill the game completely, just something that will have a bigger impact on the subscriber base of WoW than we've ever seen before, and would be considered to be a major blow to WoW.

#2 Posted by Nasos100 (727 posts) -

no

#3 Posted by RandomInternetUser (6788 posts) -

I personally know a few people who are going to quit WoW when TOR comes out and give it a shot to be their new go-to MMO.  They've all raided in WoW since the beginning of Burning Crusade.  I also know some others who are quitting to play Diablo 3.  So, I would assume that these games will probably make a significant hole in the subscriber numbers, but like you said, it is not going to kill the game.

#4 Posted by RIDEBIRD (1229 posts) -

Diablo 3 will cannibalize quite a lot for Blizzard I would say. I bet a good 2 million might dump WoW for TOR, but they'll be back after a month or so when they see the extent of how bad the game is and how extremely trivial the difficulty level is. Then they'll later go to GW2, where they will very likely stay. GW2 is the only MMO on the horizon that looks good and challenging, and I suspect a lot of the hardcore will go there. It also doesn't have a subscription fee, which will encourage quite a few casuals as well.

#5 Posted by scarace360 (4828 posts) -

WOW wont die. You cant kill it. 

#6 Edited by Jimbo (9710 posts) -

I'd expect WoW numbers to spike when an expansion comes out and then decline as people start running out of content again, so being in decline at the moment doesn't seem too surprising. What is WoW down to now? Still about a zillion I presume.

I don't think Diablo 3 will be the sort of game where a lot of people switch to exclusively playing it. I'm still not convinced the massive hype around GW2 is going to survive first contact (what people say they want and what they actually want often turn out to be different), and even if TOR turns out to be good, I think they're going to have trouble long-term creating enough content to stop people drifting back to WoW.

Will those three games combined cause a further dip in WoW numbers? Probably. Will that dip be permanent? Probably not. Thing is, what do we even consider a major blow to WoW? Losing, say, 3 million subscribers would be pretty major, but even that would still leave them as comfortably the biggest game in town and printing money.

#7 Posted by desolation15 (113 posts) -

I think nothing will ever dethrone WoW as the king of paid mmo, except for another MMO made by Blizzard. No, those three games you mentioned will take a chunk out of WoW's user base but I think WoW is going slowly bleed out and die a long slow death.
 
Also, I wonder how many people use credit cards to pay for WoW subscriptions, either for themselves or family members, and never use it. And when it's belt-tightening time that's the first to go. I wish I can get access to some kind of record to see the numbers of inactive accounts (6mos without a log on) canceled in the last 18-24 months. Unless I'm wrong and Blizzard has a policy in place that will stop billing inactive accounts after so and so months but being that they're in it to make money...That seems unlikely.

#8 Posted by BabyChooChoo (4038 posts) -

@Jimbo said:

I'd expect WoW numbers to spike when an expansion comes out and then decline as people start running out of content again, so being in decline at the moment doesn't seem too surprising. What is WoW down to now? Still about a zillion I presume.

I don't think Diablo 3 will be the sort of game where a lot of people switch to exclusively playing it. I'm still not convinced the massive hype around GW2 is going to survive first contact (what people say they want and what they actually want often turn out to be different), and even if TOR turns out to be good, I think they're going to have trouble long-term creating enough content to stop people drifting back to WoW.

Will those three games combined cause a further dip in WoW numbers? Probably. Will that dip be permanent? Probably not. Thing is, what do we even consider a major blow to WoW? Losing, say, 3 million subscribers would be pretty major, but even that would still leave them as comfortably the biggest game in town and printing money.

Bingo. I'm with him^

#9 Posted by IBurningStar (2145 posts) -

The only thing that can kill WoW is time. I don't think Blizzard could completely kill it off even if they tried. Well, they could just take all the servers offline, but anything short of that just wont bring the behemoth down.

#10 Posted by Soffish (139 posts) -

I would imagine that these games would have a substantial impact on the number of WoW subscribers, but they definitely aren't going to kill WoW.

#11 Posted by chrissedoff (2041 posts) -

blizzard started killing their own game by making cataclysm too hard, totally overestimating their player base's appetite for punishment in such a time-consuming game.

#12 Posted by Winger (151 posts) -

Blizzard seriously are going to hurt their own profits with Diablo 3.

I hope it's good.

#13 Edited by Irvandus (2643 posts) -

Nothing will kill WoW it will always have a decent audience, hell look at Everquest that thing is still kicking.

#14 Posted by Adamsons (877 posts) -
@PrimeSynergy said:

@Jimbo said:

I'd expect WoW numbers to spike when an expansion comes out and then decline as people start running out of content again, so being in decline at the moment doesn't seem too surprising. What is WoW down to now? Still about a zillion I presume.

I don't think Diablo 3 will be the sort of game where a lot of people switch to exclusively playing it. I'm still not convinced the massive hype around GW2 is going to survive first contact (what people say they want and what they actually want often turn out to be different), and even if TOR turns out to be good, I think they're going to have trouble long-term creating enough content to stop people drifting back to WoW.

Will those three games combined cause a further dip in WoW numbers? Probably. Will that dip be permanent? Probably not. Thing is, what do we even consider a major blow to WoW? Losing, say, 3 million subscribers would be pretty major, but even that would still leave them as comfortably the biggest game in town and printing money.

Bingo. I'm with him^

Yep nailed it.
#15 Edited by SoldierG654342 (1681 posts) -

The combination of finite content and the F2P model is slowly bleeding WoW out. It won't ever die, but now that the F2P model is actually starting to churn out not-shitty games, people  seem to be be less and less willing to pay WoW's subscription fee. 

#16 Edited by Pinworm45 (4088 posts) -

They will definitely have a significant effect. I would not be surprised if WoWs numbers dropped to 50% of what they are now by the time all 3 are out.

#17 Posted by BoG (5178 posts) -

How do you kill that which has no life?
Moderator
#18 Edited by Aronman789 (2674 posts) -

I'm pretty sure WOW would be shut down before it bled to death, and looking at the current state of things (people getting bored with it again, new MMOs, ect.) I sure hope that time comes soon. That way people might actually stick to the new and interesting MMOs after a month, instead of playing for a bit and then leaving only 2% of the original numbers to see it die without it ever getting much of a chance. 
 
I used to hang out with a couple guys that loved MMOs and were really sick of WOW, and so would move around trying to find some genuinely interesting ones to play, but always had to return to WOW since it was the only place without completely empty servers.

#19 Edited by StarvingGamer (7565 posts) -

D3 and GW2 shouldn't have any real impact. Since neither of them are subscription based neither should supplant WoW in that slot for most gamers. ToR will have a small impact but hardly enough to be a killer on its own. Then Blizzard will release Pandaria with the new Brewmaster hero class and create a new record for number of subscribers.

#20 Posted by Gargantuan (1877 posts) -

TOR will not kill WoW. The beta wasn't very good. Guild Wars 2 and Diablo 3 however will pose a threat to WoW.

#21 Edited by Heltom92 (694 posts) -

While Wow's sub base has been dropping over the last few months, it still ha way more subs than any of its competitors. Also, it is natural for the player count to drop a few months after a expansion has come out. I still think WoW has a few mroe years to go before it gets anywhere close to being "dead" and none of these games will kill it.

#22 Posted by Vexxan (4598 posts) -

WoW cannot be killed. It might shrink but it'll never be completely killed by another game.

#23 Posted by MattyFTM (14244 posts) -

I would guess that WoW has at least another 5+ years in it left. And once numbers really start to dwindle, they'll go Free 2 Play and tap into an entirely new audience.

Moderator
#24 Posted by Benny (1937 posts) -

They're totally different markets. It would be like saying the new modern warfare will kill off the Wii. The majority of people playing the Wii don't care, and I have to imagine the majority of WoW players don't care about or know enough about any of the games you've mentioned.

In my opinion though, Guild Wars 2 will be a much better game than WoW and the old republic and I can definitely see a number of the more hardcore audience making the switch to GW2 permanently.

#25 Posted by amomjc (977 posts) -

When are people going to realize that WoW is just a great polished game that people can just constantly return to and get polished content without having to worry. People will always "quit" a game to try another, but when it's all said and done, they generally return to their comfort zone and for many that is World of Warcraft. I don't think GW2 will demolish WoW due to it's F2P nature, see as instead of having two subscriptions, you will only have one so they can justify keeping their sub up for WoW.

#26 Posted by tekmojo (2298 posts) -

I hope but doubtful, WoW has died a long time ago for me. Looking for the next new MMO like millions of others. TOR being my top choice. GW2 close 2nd.

#27 Posted by SeriouslyNow (8534 posts) -

F2P is the triumvirate (acronym) which is killing WoW.

#28 Posted by gamefreak9 (2327 posts) -

GW is going to be mediocre... TOR... everybody thinks they can do an mmo easily now, but its lifespan will not be over a year. Diablo 3? um i think there's a synergisting element to it, how the friend chat is shared with SC2 and WOW, i think those games sales will become much more linked than first anticipated.

Will they dent wow? probably not, who know maybe star wars fans will join come out of their shell and experience an MMO and then switch to the best one after(wow). Also if someone doesn't think blizzard is the best company they obviously don't watch the creators talk about their design philosophies. I mean their approach to the talent system(although i don't neccesrily like the talent system itself) is just phenomenal, they are moving towards REAL choice in MMO's and RPGS whilst others are still focused on merely making it work. Blizzard is miles ahead...

disclosure: i do not play wow(but i did)

#29 Posted by Kiro (288 posts) -

It'll be the same with TOR as it is with every other over-hyped MMO. It'll be labled as a "wow-killer" and sure it'll be great the first week, but then people start to realize that whatever this game has going for it, wow has everything else going for it a lot better. Just look at every other MMO that has come out in recent years. The only thing that seems to somewhat hold it together is Lord of the Rings online.

#30 Edited by BisonHero (5674 posts) -

@MattyFTM said:

I would guess that WoW has at least another 5+ years in it left. And once numbers really start to dwindle, they'll go Free 2 Play and tap into an entirely new audience.

It's already free to play. They didn't make a big deal out of it, but as of a while ago, anyone can download the client, and get a character as high as level 20, at which point the only way to progress is to pay the monthly subscription fee, I believe.

As far as I can tell, that counts as free to play, unless you want to consider that an extremely lengthy demo.

#31 Posted by BionicRadd (617 posts) -

@BisonHero said:

@MattyFTM said:

I would guess that WoW has at least another 5+ years in it left. And once numbers really start to dwindle, they'll go Free 2 Play and tap into an entirely new audience.

It's already free to play. They didn't make a big deal out of it, but as of a while ago, anyone can download the client, and get a character as high as level 20, at which point the only way to progress is to pay the monthly subscription fee, I believe.

As far as I can tell, that counts as free to play, unless you want to consider that an extremely lengthy demo.

Its a lengthy demo. No RealID support, can't join guilds, not sure if you are even allowed into instances (didn't play long enough to find out), can't send or accept mail. It's a very isolated experience, all around. It's a great way to get a feel for the game if you're new, but it's not the same as playing a F2P MMO. I started a second account just to try it out, thinking I could level random alts and chat with friends when I didn't have enough free time to justify keeping my WoW sub up and no, not good enough.

As for the OP, everyone has put too much stock into the huge dip WoW took with Cata. That was a reflection of the community's feelings about this expansion, not necessarily an indication that the game itself is dying. If the storylines they're hinting at for Pandaria are as epic as I hope they'll be, people will come running back. Just the first little nugget about the Horde sacking Theramore got people pretty well up in arms, and that's just going to be a skirmish in the overall scope of things, according to Zarhym. Personally, I hope the rumors of Undercity getting taken by the Alliance prove true. Blizz really needs to turn this game on it's ear and people will come running back.

This edit will also create new pages on Giant Bomb for:

Beware, you are proposing to add brand new pages to the wiki along with your edits. Make sure this is what you intended. This will likely increase the time it takes for your changes to go live.

Comment and Save

Until you earn 1000 points all your submissions need to be vetted by other Giant Bomb users. This process takes no more than a few hours and we'll send you an email once approved.