@Darkstar_KoP: I didn't see any coincidences.
As for the OT. You're 100% right... I even think "you got phished" or something when my friends ( yes S plural ) accounts got hacked, but there is no god damn way that someone "stole" my password from my computer unless, and this is a HUGE unless, some site out there is collecting passwords and emails, and for some reason I used the same password on both that site and XBL. However I have 3 different levels of email.
1 - Completely Random, generated by Last Pass and saved there. Used for any site that I will access ONLY from my computer
2 - easy, shitty number and letter password like p4ssw0rd that I can remember when I need to use some site outside of the computer, and i need to remember it
3 - super secret password that I use on a handful of sites ( bank, apple, XBL ) where I often need to type the password in, and I need to remember it because I wont be on my computer for it. This password is changed often.
Now I suppose it's possible I was an idiot, and used #2 for xbox instead of #1 however, I didn't get to check before I changed it as I was being hacked at that very time, and once I changed it, I lose the old one. But I use my passport for a few different things, and I'm pretty confident that the password was password #3.
TLDR Version: It's not worth hacking my account because it takes too fucking long and there are easier accounts to hack. I'm anal about passwords and an IT professional, so I know how to make sure I'm not logging in to some Phishing site, and unless MS stores passwords un-hashed, which the rep on the phone told me wasn't the case, my password would have been changed if someone got it via social engineering. That and the call logs would have showed the XBox employee that "I" called in 15 minutes ago trying to reset my password.
All that said, they refused to refund me the money unless I let them do an investigation on my account and lose my account for "25 days" which a friend of mine has had done to him for over 8 weeks now. I said no, then they said they'd do it, took my info and never called me back for over 2 weeks. I called my bank and got the money back in 15 minutes.
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