**@BoG** said:

I'll repost what I said in another topic:

"I did an experiment once. I lost a character early on in a mission, and I was frustrated, so I reloaded. The turn began with one of my characters taking an 85% chance shot. She missed it in my botched turn, and missed again when I reloaded. I thought that it was odd that I would miss such a high percentage shot twice in a row. Not impossible, simply not probable. So, I reloaded. Miss. I reloaded multiple times, and missed every time. I changed things after a while. I moved her up a few places, bringing my hit chance to 90%. She still missed every time.

I really don't know what to think about this. When is the hit calculated? When are the dice rolled? Does the game blatantly lie to you about the chance of hitting a target? It seems that, in reality, those shots had a 0% chance of hitting the target. If this was the case, the game should tell me. If the game is calculating these things in another way, it shouldn't lead me to believe that it's a dice roll."

I would love it if Firaxis would address this. I still enjoy the game, I just feel like it's lying to me.

It's not lying to you.

As other have already posted the game uses (like other firaxis games and many other turn based games) a random seed as the randomization factor that is introduced into it's calculations. This is done in order to lessen the syndrome of cheesing the % chances via reloads.

To grossly oversimplify: map loads, a RNG (random number generation) is performed say 0-10000, and you get a for example 3598 or whatever, that's your random seed. When you take the shot this random number is introduced into the complex equation calculating the shot, your modifiers like cover, range, weapon, soldier accuracy and likewise used in the equation The non random numbers basically create a range that if the random number corresponds to - you hit. For example a 80% chance is 8035-10000, your seed (3598) is less, you miss. After the shot the existing random seed is then modified by some factor to produce the next random seed for the next calculation. This means that if you just reload the game from before the shot it remembers your existing random seed (it's part of the save) and uses the exact same random seed to compare against your modifiers, hence the shot will keep missing and missing if it missed the first time.

The shown % in the tooltips is the approximate (to within 1%) range that is created by your modifiers that is "compared" to the random seed. If you do not try to cheese the game % chances via reloads then the percentages the game shows you actually very well reflect your average chances of hitting.

So basically it is a dice roll, the dice roll just happened a long time ago and the game simply remembers it (and modifies it (non randomly) for further shots and actions); to prevent you from re rolling the dice over and over to get the desired outcome whenever you wish it.

Again this is an oversimplification. Actual process and calculations will vary. But it's the laymans jist of how such systems work.

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A good example of a system not using a persistent random seed - infinity engine rpgs. You could basically save before every sword strike or spell cast then if you missed or got crited for example or spell got resisted you could just reload over and over until the dice rolled your way (or to a natural 20 lol) and save/load your way to victory.

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