Game of the Year expectation (again)

Guys, we had a thread of GOTY expectations where we were talking about the games that everyone should check it out based on what we think has a chance of making the list or at least be in the discussions.

I was going to edit the post and mistakenly deleted it, my bad!! :(

The last posts on the discussion were about: it looks like Jeff doesn't care for God of War, will that have big impact and give a chance for Dead Cells and Tetris Effect? As well as what games will Vinny and Ben make a push for?

But on the previous topic, most people agreed that God of War, Black Ops 4, Dead Cells, Celeste, RDR2, Tetris Effect, Monster Hunter World are locks for the top 10. The other favorite seems to be Into the Breach. So if anyone is looking for something to play in december before goty, there's a strong list.

You might try PMing the mods to undelete the thread.

I bet obra dinn and the messenger are discussed

Jeff not liking God of War is a set back for it, but he didn't like The Last of Us either and isn't a fan of that style of game in general. I think the general push for God of War will make it end up on top unless the enthusiasm for it has lessened due to it being released too early in the year.

I predict I will yet again promise myself I will listen to the entire GOTY podcast instead of just only skipping to the awards where they slam on crappy games, publishers, and trends but breaking that promise when the backlog of other podcast I listen starts to build up.

The negative awards are so hilarious I wish they had their own separate podcast so I wouldn't have to skip around on the awards that contain spoilers to games I want to play.

My Predictions:

• God of War will make it to the top 5
• Into The Breach makes the top 10
• Spider Man wins GOTY this year after a long argument... it doesn't feel like the game won, so much as it's the least divisive game on the list.
• Hitman will make it into the top 5, despite the fact that the crew hasn't said much about it on the podcast.
• Monster Hunter World will somehow sneak it's way into the top-3, surprising everyone but Jason.
• The longest non-GOTY segment will be for "hottest mess"
• We get another re-branding of "Best Short-Form Game," or whatever they called it last year.
• Best story will be contentious because Vinny will swear by "return of the Obra Dinn," or some other random indie adventure, but he will be pretty much the only person who has played it all. So the crew will suggest things like Red Dead or God of War for thirty minutes until they just give Vinny his damn pick already because Vinny is the only person who actually gives a damn about story that much.
• Brad will argue for some soft-classical type soundtrack again for "best music." The award will go to some game with a thumpin techno soundtrack and Brad will be displeased.
• Alex tends to argue for only one or two games a year, a-la Thumper. This year he will be arguing for "Fire Pro Wrestling."
• Red Dead will barely make it into the top 10
  • Abby will pull a Cuphead again and try to argue for it being #1 until Jeff shuts that down because he doesn't think it's top-10 material. It ends up at #8 because Jeff is the best arguer in the group but the rest of the group won't accept it being out of the top-10.

@vinone: the full version of Fire Pro was released on August 28th for PS4. Considering that the full release on PC happened after the GOTY podcasts, the proper console release was this year, and the PS4 version had a massive single-player mode included with it, there is an argument for it's inclusion in GOTY this year.

Man... especially that last one is so on-the-money it scares me.

As for time souring opinions on a game, it seems the only thing that lasts to the end are grievances and personal issues. Quite often I feel like people overlook what they enjoyed in the moment, and latch onto the negative aspects that they mull over afterwards. I'm reminded of this gem Bill Hader dropped regarding time affecting the writing process for South Park:

With that system of constantly trying to beat your ideas and come up with better ones, does that always yield better material?

Sometimes. And sometimes, you go in a big circle and go, “No, the thing we initially had was great.” I hear Trey say that a lot. “Wait, what was the first idea? What was the thing we talked about at the retreat?” We’ll talk about an idea at the retreat, and then, months later, you’re writing it in the writers’ room and then, you kind of lose it a little bit and go wait, “Wait, what was funny about this?” It gets off-topic, and sometimes, it’ll get off-topic in a great way.

I think there is so much bad blood with Jeff not liking the two best games of the year that they'll have to concede that Tetris Effect is #1. Hope Into the Breach gets some love

@superharman: What major releases did Jeff like this year ? I haven't really followed the site too closely, but everything I've heard from Jeff is him grumbling about games other people are having a great time with.

My predictions for top 10 (in order):

1. God of War
2. Dead Cells
3. Tetris Effect
4. Hitman 2
5. Red Dead Redemption 2
6. Into the Breach
7. Black Ops 4
8. Return of the Obra Dinn
9. Marvel's Spider-Man
10. Celeste

I'm pretty sure Monster Hunter World will be 9th or 10th, if it makes it on at all; a lot of the crew liked it when it came out, but didn't really keep up with it, and I feel like that's a game that should be played over a long time.

Astro Bot might pull a dark horse move and sneak onto the top 10; has been getting a lot of praise from both coasts.

Assassin's Creed: Odyssey will be mentioned and immediately dropped, and Alex will say it could've made it if it had been half as long.

RDR2 is definitely not going to be 1st; too many Bombers either hated it from the start or turned on it hard, and with Jeff being one of those it'll be hard for Brad, Abby, and Alex to sway the conversation. That said, it's still an undeniable achievement, so putting it out of the top 5 isn't gonna fly.

God of War feels like the "inoffensive" pick for GOTY; as far as I know, most of the crew really liked it, and at least half of them loved it. I don't think the Beast Coast liked Dead Cells enough to push it past GoW, but probably over RDR2.

I don't think anyone loved Spider-Man enough to push it to top 5, but it's good enough to keep in the top 10 at least.

I didn't expect Celeste to make it to the top 10 until Jeff mentioned it a few Bombcasts ago; he made it seem like he really enjoyed it. I'd love to see it go higher (it's my 1 or 2), but haven't heard enough people's opinions to know.

Trying to predict where each game will fall is real tough; almost every game on the list hasn't been played by everyone, or at least not everyone has given their opinions on it. I think there's going to be a lot of heated arguments this year, more than previous years.

@not_a_bumblebee: Last year they broke out the videos for the individual categories. Not ideal for listening on the go but I am definitely going to use them this year. Some of the categories can get tied down in circular arguements which I don’t find that interesting so like you I will cherry pick some of the more interesting categories to listen to.

Ignore what I posted on the fantasy league. I completely botched up my predictions thinking I had to put my top 8 and see how well the games I like rate with the Staff Lists and Guest Lists.

Anyways, I don't see Spider-Man making the list. I think it will get Uncharted 4-ed as its agreed that its good, but nobody is passionate enough to fight for it. I have a feeling Into the Breach is gonna crack the top 5. The way Alex has been talking about that game lately makes me think he'll push for it hard and get some good support to push it into top 5 territory. Weirdly enough, I think Tetris Effect is gonna win GOTY as that is unanimously loved and will get the support for that spot. Following that will be RDR2, Dead Cells, Into the Breach and BLOPS 4.

:)

@monetarydread: That's interesting, I disagree with almost everything you said. Spider-Man winning GOTY and MHW making top 3, both have a 0% chance of happening in my opinion. God of War making top 5 is 100% guarantee, and I agree with the Brad part, about the best music. But let's wait and see

@ares42: Black Ops 4, Dead Cells and Celeste will probably be Jeff's top 3 games. Based on what he said on the podcast during all this year.

@acharlie1377: I think Celeste and Black Ops 4 make the top 6 for sure, and Monster Hunter World is a lock for top 10, around the bottom. Jason won't let that slip.

I don't think there's any chance that one of the big budget AAA titles will win Game of the Year. It'll end up being something smaller, like Into the Breach, Tetris Effect or Dead Cells.

@guip1408: Yeah, this. That said, although Jeff did mentioned he liked Nier: Automata , I was still shocked that it ended up sitting at two on his personal list. He just doesn't tend to give effusive praise to games as a rule but will be sure to heavily dump on something he doesn't like.

The big thing this year though is that there hasn't been a game that has become "the game" in terms of site content like we had with with Mario Maker, Hitman and PUBG. A lot of Jeff's argument for those games was supported by the content they got out of them and was a big part of his positioning on Hitman and PUBG. Without that clear breakout game this year, it's possible Jeff won't have a strong enough argument to stop a game from being one.

It should be an interesting year because opinions are all over the place and it doesn't feel like there is a default/fallback game like there was last year or the Hitman/Doom choice from 2016.

@superharman: I think Vinny does that very well. I always come to GOTY deliberations not knowing what to expect from him, and he's always so great at balancing the fight for his game with understanding what others love even if he doesn't.

I think for Jeff this year it might be Black Ops 4 at number 1, I would bet it makes the top 5 of the site.

@guip1408: Why don't you think so?

For me, some of the reasoning that makes me choose Spider Man at 1, Monster Hunter at 3, and GOW somewhere in the top-5 comes down to listening to the podcast and knowing how GOTY has worked in the past (I have been following the site the the Arrow Pointing Down blog). Take MHW as an example, going off of the podcast and info from the site, name one other game that has been as universally loved by the crew as this one? Hell, it is even loved by Jeff and that guy has gone on rants as to how much he dislikes the previous entries in the series and how MHW is amazing because they finally made a game that allows him to see the appeal of the series. Now there are serious arguments for the problems with the game, but again, it grabbed the attention of almost everyone on staff and historically those are the games that tend to win GOTY on this site. There are arguably better games, like Red Dead 2, but that game has a major division in popularity between the staff. Jeff hates it and lots of the staff that did enjoy it have given up on the game with people like Dan saying that this is one of the most disappointing games of the year for him. The exact same thing can be said for God of War, half the staff didn't like that game enough to actually make it past the half-way point, they just quit because the game play was tedious and the story wasn't enough to pull them along. So whats left? Return of the Obra Dinn, Tetris Effect, Dead Cells, Celeste? Those are all games that the staff has dismissed for one reason or another. Celeste is too boring and generic with its only real appeal being nostalgia and the story twist and a good chunk of the staff think that tight game play is more important than story. A good chunk of the staff agree that Dead Cells is a great game, but the length of runs has repeatedly been mentioned as a major turn off for several members. Tetris Effect might be a sleeper, and everyone seems to love it... but it's just Tetris with a Lumines skin and VR support that the staff agrees is fun for a moment but is better on a regular TV. Obra DInn is a good game, but we run into a problem where it seems like Vinny is the only one who has given the game its due so he will probably be the only one really pushing for it.

Now Spider Man being #1. It probably isn't the best game of the year and it is one that most people on the site have said is flawed... but then they all pretty much played it through to the end and can you name another game this year that has happened with? If almost everyone on staff has played through such a long game then there must be something there. I am guessing it is like GOTY 2011 all over again where Saints Row: The Third, Portal 2 and Bastion were the games that the staff were most passionate about. Yet, Skyrim won almost by default because passions were high about SR3, Portal and Bastion yet that passion wasn't unanimous and Skyrim was good enough for the staff members to all have put in a good chunk of time.

Edit: As for the rest of the predictions. Hottest Mess; that prediction came from the fact that there are a LOT of broken, half-baked online games this year. It seems like Fallout 76 is a lock, and now that I type this down I am doubting my prediction... then again, The Quiet Man exists. The rebranding of "best short form game," is something that seems to happen almost every year, so mentioning another rebranding is barely a prediction. The best story prediction is basically what happens EVERY year in GOTY, with the only real exceptions being when Patrick or Austin was on staff... but those two are gone now and Vinny, Abby and Brad are the only two members left who prefer story enough to fight for a game like Obra Dinn. Brad has been vocal about giving an award to something other than a thumpin techno soundtrack enough times now that it is beginning to be a trope so another barely prediction, prediction. Another barely prediction, prediction is in the Red Dead Argument... there is a real chance I am wrong here, but GOTY podcasts do show that Jeff is the alpha arguer of the group and he has a history of using that skill to shut down games he isn't a fan of. Hell, I remember the Skyrim GOTY win and Jeff sounded like he was almost on the verge of putting his foot down and just declaring Saints Row the winner that year.... same thing with Mario Maker. The Abby portion is maybe a little unfair, she has only been on one GOTY podcast grind so far. I assume she has learned how to better argue her point, but if there is one thing I remember from last years GOTY was how annoyingly aggressive she was with Cuphead even when several staff members flat out told her it wasn't happening.

So are my predictions accurate? Mostly definitely not. They are educated guesses, but the staff has a tendency to cram a lot of those half-finished games in before GOTY podcasts, so all the info I use to predict can be completely invalid.

@monetarydread: Bang on for my money. I predict you're the second coming of Nostradamus.

@monetarydread: Only Jeff, Jason and Dan played MHW like you're saying, all the others tried and didn't stick to it. I think it'll be around 7th-9th.

About Spider-Man, the reviewer (Ben) gave it 4 stars because it had some problems, Brad and Jeff didn't like it enough to finish it. Dan hated the character dialogue because it was goofy, my prediction is that Spider-Man doesn't make the top 10.

About another games being loved: Only Jeff didn't cared that much for GoW, all the east crew loved that game, some of the guys (Vinny, Dan and Ben) even did a Spoilercast about it, I've never saw a spoilercast be done by this guys. Dead Cells, at some point, the question on the podcast was: "What games have you been playing" and Ben said "There's only one man, and that's Dead Cells" going on to say he had hit the 35 hour mark and Brad responded with: "I'm ready to call it one of the very best 2D Action-Platformers of all-time" and Ben said: "Me too". Jeff always thought Dead Cells was fantastic and Jason gave it his 2017 GOTY in Early Access. Tetris Effect is liked by everyone also, Abby and Alex are kind of not as hot on it, but the West crew and Dan are playing it everyday for hours and hours. Other games I think are more loved then Spider-Man: Black Ops 4, Dragon Ball and Hitman 2.

My questions going into this years deliberations are: What are Vinny's top 3 Games? I have no idea. Does Jason likes MHW or Dead Cells more? How much will the "more of the same" argument stop Tetrist Effect and Hitman 2? It's the most excited I've been for a GOTY discussion since I've been following the site.

All I know is if Celeste doesn't get the soundtrack of the year they did it wrong.

@fatalbanana: oh I agree with you there, 100%. Unless there's a game that I didn't play with some out of this world soundtrack, like Octopath or something. But I'll be so mad if they put something like RDR2 over Celeste.

I'm majorly behind on all things Giant Bomb - when are the GOTY discussions being released this year?

@stryker1121 said:

Christmas ish to end of the year.

@fatalbanana

Also, this is very very good. Fuck do I have to play Celeste? I know lots of people really liked it but...depending how hard it is, I can get pretty frustrated with having to be "perfect" at something.

@vortextk: Appreciate it!

As someone who's crazy in love with Octopath and its OST: I wouldn't be mad at all if this was picked in a fight over the two. This track is crazy good.

@vortextk said:

Play Celeste. The first half of the game will seem like other games you may have played before (Meat Boy in particular) but there is enough going on under the surface to make it something truly special. If you have any affinity at all for the platformer genre and don't mind its 'tough as nails' nature it's a must play, period. If you're prone to get frustrated at things like that I would argue it's still worth seeing but steer clear of it's harder challenges. In its defense, almost all of the collectibles are completely optional and tells you early on that they do nothing. Though there are a bunch of tantalizing secrets to collect and uncover that stuff is far from mandatory. Just some extra content for those that want it.

@stryker1121: Starting next monday

@joedangerous@fatalbanana: My favorite track from 2018 is probably Confronting Myself from Celeste, just by what you are going through in the game while it's playing.

Surprised no one thinks Mega Man 11 has a shot at the top ten. Everyone seemed to like it a lot, Vinny was talking about showing it to his son and everything. Seems like one of the least divisive games, and has a good chance. I bet it makes it in at number ten.

Celeste just got announced for Games with Gold on Xbox in January so I might just wait until after playing that to listen to the GOTY podcasts. But I just thought everyone should know!