Cliffy B predicts death of Nintendo's hardware in 5 years.

Cliff Bleszinski has put on his Nostradamus hat and predicted that Nintendo will be out of the hardware race in 5 years. He didn't really give any specific reason why he thinks Nintendo will be out so soon, apart from the general upheaval of the market right now, but I guess it has some weight given that he's an industry player (or sort of retired one).

A lot of gamers have been saying Nintendo's going to be a software-only company for years, but I never put much stock in that, considering that they were selling systems like cheap pills at the time, are sitting on a mountain of cash, and have always weathered the ups and downs of the industry.

I don't think this does anything to persuade me. It might happen eventually, but I don't see how it's going to happen within the console generation we're currently jumping into. Or anytime soon after that. The Wii U would have to a bust on an epic scale for that to happen, and it won't. It's not going to sell like the Wii, no doubt, but it's not going to finish at 3,000,000 sold or something crazy like that.

What scenarios can you guys propose where Nintendo is out after or during the Wii U? Do you agree with Cliffy that there's good reason to believe this is going to happen?

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2013-02-25-industry-turmoil-worst-since-80s-crash-says-bleszinski

EDIT: Some people have pointed out that the original article makes no mention of a 5 year timeframe. I didn't realize that when I first posted this. I came upon the article through Destructoid, specifically an article by Jim Sterling, who did mention it (in the title no less), and was apparently making it up. Whoops. Sorry.

http://www.destructoid.com/bleszinski-sees-nintendo-quitting-hardware-in-five-years-246948.phtml

I think they'll last in the hardware race quite awhile. They can survive a few downfalls just based of their successes in the past. I don't think we'll have another SEGA here.

I kinda feel like the others have a great chance of going than Nintendo at this point.

Cliffy B is adorable. I bet he put on his sunglasses and went to spin brodies afterwards.

"Hardware" is a euphemism for TV-console I'm guessing?

After all, Nintendo, are absolute rulers of the handheld market, which is arguably a greater source of innovation and niche genres today than the home console.

I think they are back where they were with the GameCube. All that money they made with the Wii supposedly went into R&D for the Wii U. So now they have this console without all the hype of the last one and with what seems like just as many bad games. In my eyes, they're pretty bad off. You gotta wonder if they'll be able to make enough to R&D and make another system. Or save what they can and concentrate on handhelds. Which also seems like shrinking market thanks to tablets and phones.

Cliffy Who???

Maybe. More people will probably pick a side between Sony and Microsoft in the coming generation and it's possible that one will squeeze the other out of the market. This is especially true if both consoles will have a myriad of services locked behind premium fees.

The Wii U is probably a better supplemental console than either the PS4 or Durango given the cheaper price and (likely) wider variety of exclusives. Nintendo can carve out a sizable niche for the Wii U and will continue to sell 3DSes for a while.

Young Clifford knows his shit and I agree with him.

At this point it seems anything is possible. That's what Cliffy talks about in the article. I just read it and I couldn't believe how much Cliffy and I are in agreement to whats going on in the industry.

Isn't the 3DS doing... quite well?

Cliffy B's been talking a lot these days.

If they do anything, I imagine it'd be handhelds and software. I can't wrap my mind around playing a Mario game on a PS4 or X-Box or officially on a PC.

If Nintendo didn't have the 3DS I'd agree but the 3DS will keep them afloat even with the WiiU being a less than stellar seller right now.

Nintendo can't be sitting on a pile of cash. That's not how it works for a publicly traded company. They either have to spend that cash to make acquisitions or expand or give it back to shareholders. They can save some of it but certainly not enough to last years if they stopped being profitable tomorrow.

Nintendo has been less successful with every home console they've put out until the Wii. Had the Wii continued on the same downward slope they would be out of hardware now.

To me the Wii only delayed the inevitable because it failed to fix the problem. The problem being that no one outside their most hardcore fans cares about Nintendo anymore. The Wii offset that by bringing a ton of previously non-gamers onboard. Now this more casual audience that came into gaming because of the Wii has either moved on to other platforms or simply went back to being non-gamers because the Wii failed to provide a quality experience. Now they lost that massive new audience they created and the people that were already invested into games that didn't care for Nintendo before still don't care. They are back where they were at the end of the GameCube era. They have a core audience of fans of Mario, Zelda, Pokemon etc.

The new problem now is that it's unlikely to be enough. The company grew too much with the Wii and needs to continue to be successful on that scale to satisfy shareholders. If they can continue to create hardware that is profitable on its own and their first party games continue to sell well they will be able to continue limping forward but expect a massive downsizing of the company if they go back to GameCube level of sales.

If this is the future of the company even if it work i don't see the point. A company like Sony stands to win so much from having a successful console because that console becomes the center of the living room and directly benefits Sony's other divisions. Sony would stand to lose a ton more from stepping out of the console business and having their first party games go multiplatform would not offset that lost. Nintendo on the other end is purely a gaming company. Unless the hardware itself is massively profitable what is the point of producing that hardware? Their games going multiplaform could generate more money than the lost from no longer selling hardware.

He actually only said that the could envision it happening with the shift in gaming at the moment and that he's interested in how things will turn out in the current "console battle".

Not to be picky, but there's quite a difference between that and your headline. He never said he predicts/thinks/wants it to happen or anything even close to it.

It'll be sooner than that.

I highly respect Cliffy B's opinion, but I'm going to have to disagree with him here. Even if Nintendo can't sell mainstream/current-gen consoles, they could always aim for a cheap/kid-friendly niche with a much lower price point and coast on remakes of Nintendo classics.

Remember when he said PC Gaming was dead? Remember that guys?

In his car filled with hair gel, axe body spray, and sweet v-necks.

I think they'll be fine, like you said while the Wii U isn't selling awesomely it is not gonna be a company destroying bust. Also if I'm not mistaken since they dropped the price of the 3DS it's been doing very well.

I don't think that'll happen. He's also the guy that said PC Gaming was dead. I like him but some of the things he says are just dumb. Plus the 3DS seems to be doing quite well for them.

I agree with him.

The 3DS will probably keep them going. I can't imagine what the hell they'll be doing 5 years from now, regarding consoles, though. Fuck, I barely even know what they're doing now.

@pr1mus: Apple says hi.

@the_devoid: Yes because their audience is dozens of times bigger than Nintendo.

Incredibly well in Japan. Not exceptionally well anywhere else. I'd imagine most people are starting to view $40 too much for handheld software after having iphones for so long.

Everyone, I'm afraid that @frankfartmouthis putting words in Clifford's mouth. If you actually check the article in question, Mr. Bleszinski didn't say anything about "five years."

Here's Clifford's actual quote:

"This business has not been in a state of transition like it is right now since the video game crash of the '80s. I really think we're in a massive state of turmoil. I think Nintendo could possibly be faced with the situation of becoming a company that only makes software moving forward. I think Sony and Microsoft are about to come to major blows. But at the same time, people love playing games on their iPad. The PC is going through a wonderful renaissance right now. I think we're ready to do digital download games all the time … I just want to see what happens. In regards to the industry, it's like the Super Smash Bros. of business right now, and I want to see if Peach or Mario wins."

Nintendo will be the last one making consoles, not the next one out. Just because a company doesn't target you doesn't make their product invalid; Nintendo has always been baby's first console, nothing will ever change that.

Five years seems low to me. That might be the smart thing to do, but I bet Nintendo either lasts another ten years, or they somehow wind up the last company making a console after Sony and Microsoft have given up.

I have no evidence to back this up. Just a feeling.

Developers rather than customers will probably squeeze Nintendo out.

It seems that it will be easy to port games between the PC, PS4 and Next Box so I can see 3rd party developers shunning the Wii U because of the extra work and extra cost to develop for it.

How long can Nintendo last on just 1st party titles?

@pr1mus: The amount of money they made from the Wii and DS alone should tell you how much more profitable making hardware is. No amount of multiplatform releases could possibly make up for what they'd lose by dropping hardware and shareholders aren't going to gamble losing all of that, simply because their new project is making a bit less money, especially when, unlike Sony and Microsoft, their hardware is and always has been profitable.

If they ever end up in a state where making consoles does become too unprofitable for them, then they'd most likely just continue making handhelds and releasing their games exclusively on those. The Wii U is in a bit of a slump, but the 3DS is doing incredibly well. If anything, I can imagine Nintendo just putting out an extremely cheap console next-gen, that focuses solely on playing games (like the Wii mini) with limited third party support. People pretty much already buy Nintendo consoles for the handful of exclusive releases, so dedicating a system to that, instead of the gimmicks they're currently relying on, would make a lot more sense before turning to become a software only company.

I'm not the biggest Nintendo fan in the world, but I honestly don't understand how or why anybody thinks it makes any amount of sense for Nintendo to stop making hardware. Is this just some weird delusion cooked up by the "hardcore gamers"?

They already used up that money from the Wii to R&D the Wii U (and probably the 3DS). They've completely dropped the ball on home consoles. Nintendo as a company is completely bull headed when it comes to admitting mistakes and in turn learning from them. How do you expect them to keep themselves afloat when they keep making all of the same mistakes in their home consoles and even their handhelds?

Not only do they keep making the same mistakes but they are showing no promise in keeping up with the times. All of their decisions are based around decade old ideas of what a home console is. That's exactly the reason why everyone is starting to feel like Nintendo might not be able to push forward in the future.

Now obviously they can turn it around in the end and become Apple. But they'd have to first fix all of their ideals to match their customers.

@wintersnowblind: I addressed the money they can make on hardware. But the 3DS is no where near as profitable to produce for them compared to the DS. Same for the Wii U compared to the Wii. If they were to stop making home consoles and switch over to making only handhelds and games for those then switching to multiplatform makes even more sense. Nintendo is a company with three branch, Home consoles, handhelds and games. When your company is this focused it makes no sense to use the two successful branch to keep the third one afloat. Right now the Wii U is selling a lot less than even the PS3 was in its worst months. If the company was private they would have been able to stockpile all the money they made from the Wii and weather the storm and go in whatever direction they want. But they're not and all their shareholders aren't going to sit there and watch their money evaporate. If they come to the conclusion that stopping the production of home consoles and making those games go multiplatform is the right move then that's what will happen. If the current heads of the company don't want to, the shareholders will simply vote them out and put someboby else in place. There's nothing delusional about this. It's just business for these people.

Nintendo right now is at the mercy of the success they've had with the Wii and DS. The company grew quickly, made a lot of money for a lot of people and these people expect this to continue. The Wii U is not looking to be anywhere near the Wii's success and will never get there and the 3DS may get close to the DS but if the profit on the hardware isn't as big and if games don't sell as well they're in trouble. That's what happens to public companies, when they grow they have to find ways to stay up there.

5 years they won't even make it that long.

Microsoft would buy em. But, I don't really care right now. ~ Meh!

Common misconception: Nintendo is "sitting on a mountain of cash". Also that they can never miss. GC was a moderate success, Wii was huge, but I see Wii U as GC esque and that's fine but might not be enough anymore. It also doesn't help that their shareholders now expect Wii like numbers.

I predict that in about 10 years, Nintendo doesn't make a console but does still make a handheld. And they make games for consoles. 5 years is too short of a time frame.

While you completely misrepresented what Cliffy said, I'll answer your question anyway.

I think 5 years is a little short, but I could definitely see them gone in 10-15. @pr1mus: pretty much nailed it.

he should focus more on annualizing his franchise that hasn't improved in the past 5 years

Nintendo aren't leaving the hardware market anytime soon. Nintendo made a ton of money from the Wii and DS. Both were runaway successes. They're rolling in money right now. The Wii U and 3DS could be total flops, and Nintendo will still be fine. They have plenty of cashflow. It's not an issue.

Sega was a totally different kettle of fish. The Saturn was a flop. The dreamcast was a flop. They couldn't afford another major flop like that, they had no choice but to get out of the hardware game and try to make money from software.

Plus, I don't think the Wii U will be a flop. It'll do just fine. I think it'll be another Gamecube. It'll plod along, picking up a decent number sales based on peoples love for first-party Nintendo franchises, and it'll make money. It won't be a Wii style success. It may not be as successful as the PS4 and/or Xbox 3. But it certainly won't be such a monumental flop that it causes all the money Nintendo made over the past 7 years to evaporate.

If Nintendo's next console fails in a big way, that'll be when Nintendo have problems. Even then, I don't know if I can see Nintendo bowing out of the hardware market so easily. Sega could have put out a successor to the Dreamcast had they wanted, but it would have been a huge risk. If it failed, they were done for. Faced with the same situation, Nintendo may decide to put all their eggs in one basket and push onward, and carry on doing what they have always done, ultimately ending in their complete demise.

But all of this is entirely hypothetical - at this point we're talking years and years in the future. Who knows what the gaming industry is going to look like by then. We might as well be talking about Nintendo sending astronauts up to Mars.

Also, if we're talking about a new video game crash like in the 80's, Nintendo are in a far better position to continue making money from video games than Microsoft of Sony. An industry crash isn't going to destroy the entire industry - it's too big now. It's just going to lead to a lot of downsizing. Fewer big, multi-million dollar blockbusters, more indie games, and smaller development studio's taking the stage. While Nintendo is a huge company, they have always been typically frugal, keeping their expenditure low and not taking huge risks rapidly up-sizing the company during their successful periods. They are in the best position to downsize their efforts to remain profitable. Their type of games also lends itself to a more "indie"-style of development. I can imagine a Pokemon game developed by a 10-20 man team. I can't imagine a Halo, or Uncharted game developed by a 10-20 man team.

Microsoft and Sony have other departments to fall back on, sure. If a new video game crash causes their gaming departments to lose money, they can still carry on. Nintendo is solely dependant on the video game industry, but within that industry they are best placed if/when a crash comes.

In any case, I've spent waaaaay too long thinking about this whole thing right now. This post started off as a one sentence reply.

You do know that they actually made a profit off the GameCube, right?

The only unique selling point for their home console is their first party games and they're lacking in a lot of ways with the Wii U. I just don't see it doing very well at all. I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose the home console from their lineup if their next console does badly also, maybe not as soon as 5 years. I assume they have ridiculous amounts of cash they are sitting on with all the Wii sales that should tide them over.

while at the same time almost completely losing their foothold on the home console market. Sure, they've been making money but with every console they release they lose more and more consumers to how they run business.

I wish I agreed, but they are completely against the new model of mobile, they want to be the hardware that plays their games, and it's obviously shifting to ecosystems like Android, iOS, windows phone and even playstation mobile making an effort. When gaming gets just as good on a phone compared to a Nintendo product that ONLY plays games and a few other things like Netflix, I can see the market shifting away. Not only can I imagine it, it's already happening sadly.

Nintendo needs to make either a multimedia type device that does 'apps', or licenses out it's IPs to other OS's. The latter I do not see happening, and the former is really ambitious, so either way, Nintendo has a really hard few years ahead of it.

Nintendo is just a $1.5 Billion company, if the WiiU just is another N64/GameCube they won't be able to afford another R&D cycle on a home console.

Tell us how you really feel OP...

I know the Wii U sales have been pretty atrocious but the 3DS is still doing pretty well. I think it is possible that this is the last Nintendo home console we see.

I don't think that's true anymore. Kids seem to play smartphones, and if it's not smartphone then it's an Xbox.

Possibly home console, but I'd like to think they'll continue on with handhelds.

Now I'm just picturing Cliff looking like this spouting off nonsense.

I could see that. Whatever comes after the Wii U, and whenever it comes out, will tell a lot. I don't see the Wii U ever catching on in a big way. I also don't see dedicated handhelds being a thing after the 3DS. But what the fuck do I know?