The Boldest Predictions for 2014 Ever Made

For many of us, 2014 is the year we've been waiting for. It's guaranteed to be a year of change.

That, actually, is one of the most predictable parts of the video game industry: change. Titans rise and fall, and the sands shift in new, unexpected directions that challenge our expectations. Being part of the video game industry is a really dumb idea. The competition is cutthroat, and for as much chest-thumping as the industry does about how much money it makes, you read more stories about people losing their jobs than getting them. It's not a safe industry. It's dangerous, volatile, and it's part of what keeps us coming back.

We just spent a week remembering the year that was, and making predictions is not usually Giant Bomb's business. There's a reason you almost never see rumors or speculation on the front page of the site. That's by design. Unless I can verify a piece of information myself, I'm very hesitant to share it with you. You can go somewhere else to read and consider it. But it doesn't mean we can't look ahead, and consider what's to come. I'm not interested in specifics. This isn't about "oh, hey, Nintendo's going to announce a new Metroid." Really, who cares? (OK, I would. Another Metroid Prime would be lovely.)

So here we go, 2014. Here are three thoughts on the year ahead.

Virtual Reality Won't Truly Land Yet

I purchased an Oculus Rift development kit because I find the potential of modern day virtual reality to be incredibly exciting, especially for horror games. Finally, technology has started catching up to what we've always imagined virtual reality to be like. But we're not there yet, and it's still unclear when a consumer version of the Oculus Rift will even ship. Even if it arrives later in 2014, the hurdles for virtual reality have less to do with the technology and more to do with finding out how to get people to buy it.

Strapping a screen to your head looks stupid, and it looks much stupider than waving around a Wii remote. Virtual reality falls into the "wearables" category, and that means it actually has to look sexy to have a larger appeal. The same conversation is happening around Internet-connected watches and glasses. Your average person is going to laugh at the prospect of wearing a Google Glass product in its current form because it looks so goofy and obviously tech-y. Virtual reality has the same issue.

Every single person I've shown the Oculus Rift to has come away with the same reaction: "Incredible! Can I use yours again?" When I've asked whether they would pick up one of their own, I was met with a shrug. It's not due to lack of enthusiasm over their experience inside the rift, but a question of platform. Steam may have 65 million users, but that's a very specific slice of people. I've got my Oculus Rift connected to a beefy PC because it needs to output two displays at once for the technology to even work. Your average MacBook Air isn't going to power the types of experiences that make virtual reality so interesting. Virtual reality could have success in the high-end range, but it will remain that: high-end.

But Oculus has talked about supporting mobile. Valve might release a piece of hardware. Sony might release a piece of hardware. The latter is, perhaps, vitally important to virtual reality gaining the kind of foothold we're hoping for, encouraging more developers to give it a close look. Steam Machines may help move the PC into the living room, but consoles are already there, and whatever Sony produces for the PlayStation 4, it's hard to imagine it would be so radically different from an Oculus Rift that we wouldn't soon be looking at forming standards. Virtual reality games for the console could be released on the PC and vice versa. The two would compliment each other beautifully, and it's already proven that Sony, a consumer electronics company, knows how to market and sell these devices. Right now, Oculus Rift is all insider buzz, and it's not hard to imagine the wrong marketing message bringing the house crumbling.

All of this suggests virtual reality will take its first steps in 2014, but its real impact will not be felt this year.

The Risks of AAA Continue to Restrain Creativity

Depending on your taste, 2013 was either a pretty bummer year for video games, one in which the next-gen transition took its most costly toll, or 2013 was full of delicious variety, and you only had to look beyond A, A, and A in order to find solid gold. You can probably tell which side of the fence I found myself on, given that Papers, Please was my choice for game of the year.

I don't mean to disparage players who prefer the bombast and production values the most expensive games our industry have to offer, but remember how I said gaming was a stupid industry to compete in? That's not changing. It's still going to be a stupid industry to compete in, and that means it makes more sense to be conservative than experimental, at least when the games we're talking about cost tens of millions to make. You can only make so many of those before there are no more mistakes to make, or you end up with games like BioShock Infinite, games seemingly constrained by the need to be a shooter to sell.

There's plenty of personal risk for independent developers, but the risk is personal--their livelihood. Players of independent games are regularly rewarded with games willing to drive a stake into our gameplay and narrative expectations. For some, the question of "is this a game?" is considered because it means these games might take away from the games they enjoy. I get it. For me, that's the most exciting question in games right now. From Gone Home to Twine, the only thing these have in common is interactivity, and measuring that becomes more abstract year after year. 2014, for example, will bring Robin Arnott's SoundSelf, a psychedelic visual experience that's more about the player getting to know themselves. If that sounds like hippie bullshit, you're right. I want more hippie bullshit in my games.

Streaming Video Will Change Everything

This one will be slightly self-indulgent, but stick with me.

Writing isn't dead, but it has a new ally in video. Sure, high-end game websites have been able to capture video from games for a while now, but it's only becoming accessible to consumers recently. With the new consoles, there's zero barrier to entry, and anyone can instantly become a gaming celebrity. For most, this will be a fleeting moment, but some will capitalize. It's going to light a fire under the collective asses of traditional game writers, one that's been a long time coming. This change is already happening with ahead-of-the-curve users on YouTube, but it's going to absolutely explode in the next year. Any gaming writer worth his salt that isn't looking into how video works, how it might become part of their own work, is not going to last very long in this world. Video is the future. You might not like PewDiePie, but he's individually captured an enormous audience that most major gaming websites would kill for.

(It's unfortunate Microsoft wasn't able to integrate Twitch streaming into Xbox One at launch, but it'll show up. That it's coming to Xbox One at all is what's important.)

That doesn't mean writing isn't still vitally important, nor that I'm going to stop writing anytime soon. Far from it! But video has its own place, its own voice, its own uses. Would explaining my daily adventures in Spelunky be nearly as interesting without video? Absolutely not. Video is the only reason that feature works. A new form of expression does not stamp the last one out, but the smartest learn how it can augment what's come before it.

Twitch is a company that's in the right place at the right time, important to the moment but unlikely to be streaming's future king. But what Twitch has helped usher in holds incredible value. With the click of a few buttons and a few Google searches about audio/video sync, it's possible to share your gaming experience with all of your friends--and more. The moments we talked about on playgrounds as kids are no longer tall tales: they are recorded moments in your gaming history. They can be saved, shared, and celebrated.

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Those are my predictions, but I'm not alone in wondering aloud. I asked Giant Bomb users to chime in, and I compiled a bunch of these predictions into a podcast. If you missed out on a chance to participate, make sure to drop into the comments and share your predictions! We're all going to be wrong together.

Top 10 Predictions for 2014 You Wouldn't See Coming!

Edit: This is a joke. (Not the article. The logo.)

Man, this "WHY IS BIOSHOCK INFINITE A SHOOTER" thing irritates me. BioShock Infinite HAS to be a shooter. That's the best way to convey the setting. Columbia is a dangerous, dark, violent place. If the entire game was just exploring the city without incident, that would not be true to the story. Comstock is a dangerous, violent man. Booker DeWitt is a dangerous, violent man who has committed horrific atrocities in his past and this is his last ditch effort to save himself. There is no other way for anybody or anywhere in the game to be.

15 Weird Tips to Predict 2014!

That title made me think I was on Cracked for a second.
But in all seriousness, I think these are pretty reasonable predictions.

There is something wonderfully addictive about live streaming games, and being able to watch back your own footage. Even when it's nonsense I can still laugh watching back crazy games of speedrunners or Monaco with friends. It doesn't even matter to me if no one else watches because I like just having that record

Mini prediction. A new Windjammers is released. The best thing about it is the pre-order bonus of the original game -_-;;

Also, yea. Livestreaming is gonna continue to get bigger. I know chat is typically bad, I still sorta hope that there'll be an option to see what was going on in chat during the stream.

"it's already proven that Sony, a consumer electronics company, knows how to market and sell these devices."

You mean like the Playstation Move?

Interesting predictions. I put up a bunch of my own earlier on my own blog (it's a hobby site, I don't make money from it.) I actually agree on the VR adoption one, though I have to admit I haven't had the chance to try a Rift yet. I really, really hope Twitch doesn't remain the standard for streaming. Their site, UI and servers are all bloody awful but then again, so are YouTube's and they're doing just fine, though I also predicted we're going to see at least one major YouTuber or network jump ship this year. I think both in terms of games in general and the industry, it's going to be one of the most interesting years in a long time.

Good write-up Patrick, really think you're on point with Oculus and VR making movements this year, but 2015 or forward being the more likely landing place to make a splash.

What's interesting about video and its obvious place in an editorial respect going forward, is that some of the best editorial video content out there has to be written out first. Sure, you have Quick Looks, Let's Plays, off-the-cuff video reviews and in-the-moment interviews...

... but there's something to be appreciated for videos that are written in script, outlined, shot (or in reverse order for some) and finely edited. I love seeing videos like that, and I love producing videos like that. A great example is this.

Anywho, thanks for the post Patrick, enjoyed it.

@patrickklepek wrote : "Being part of the video game industry is a really dumb idea."

Hey Patrick. Do you consider yourself part of the video game industry, or merely on the outskirt reporting about the industry? Not that reporting it isn't crazy, cut throat, and volatile as well.

I don't know if that's as much to do with a failure of marketing than it has to do with a failure of software support.

Rockstar will announce that there are no plans and no current work on a PC or Xbox One/PS4 version of GTA V...but will finally have something to say about PS4 exclusive Agent.

These are some pretty safe predictions. Good read though.

Half Life 3, Jay Electronica's Act II, and Detox coming soon

My one hope for 2014 is that we all find ways to be less divisive, but it clearly hasn't taken root yet. We need to get past this erroneous "indies are always the heroes vs those huge stifling corporate devs" mentality.

There's plenty of personal risk for independent developers, but the risk is personal--their livelihood.

I'm not doubting this is true, but you have to accept that it remains true no matter how big the dev is. One failed indie game could mean 4 people loosing their livelihood. One failed AAA game means potentially 100s of people's livelihood lost.

What you see as huge companies limiting creativity can also easily be seen as a company trying to create excellent art while maintaining a stable environment and job security for everyone involved.

And please, as was mentioned above, BI was only "seemingly" constrained by being an FPS by the players and journalists who didn't want it to be an FPS in the first place. Ken Levine has repeatedly said, even in his post BI interview on this very site that he wanted to make an FPS. Things like their shitty cover starring generic dude, he freely admits to being an intentional move to sell more copies so that they can reach a broader audience. But claiming that the fundamental underlying mechanic of the game is only a part of it because he was constrained creatively is just an utterly false assumption.

@mrgtd: You are so right. If you don't understand why Bioshock Infinite is supposed to be a shooter, you are missing the point entirely. Booker is a violent person, violence defines his character and is at the heart of this story, with regards to his development. Sure, it isn't the best controlling shooter, but if this game wasn't a shooter, it wouldn't work nearly as well as it does.

have nothing to add, just wanted to say i absolutely agree with you.

Christ, you guys are being a little harsh, don't you think?

That said, yeah....these do seem like pretty safe predictions.

"If that sounds like hippie bullshit, you're right. I want more hippie bullshit in my games."

haha! Except me too, actually. It's an exciting time for games.

I agree with all of this. I will say I wish Infinite was a better shooter. It's not bad, but it's the least interesting part of the game. I also wish the tone of the action bits wasn't always SET IT TO 11, what with the constant screaming, yelling and discordant crashing chords every time you kill a guy. Some more middle ground between quiet exploration and the violence would've been nice.

I think ending up with more games like Bioshock Infinite would be pretty great. We need more games that are incredibly inventive, imaginative and surprising even if they're in established genres that sell well. Far better than boring installments in established genres that sell well.

@mrgtd: Oh gosh, I agree so much. I'm not even a big FPS fan but Bioshock is pulpy, sci-fi fun that relishes in the blood spatter. I think Ken Levine has said something like this in the past, but Buffy the Vampire Slayer didn't have to be called Buffy the Vampire Slayer - it's just that having a campy, b-list title helps when riffing on topics and blowing things out of the water. If you don't want to watch a show about a teenage girl, fine, you'll miss out on one of the very best television shows. If you don't want to arena kill thousands of men in a bloody shooter, you'll miss out on a great yarn. But Buffy isn't Buffy without the camp. Bioshock isn't Bioshock without the guns.

Video is the future? No shit.

Nah, really- I think the average gaming site´s editorial content (in text form) hasn´t changed much since.. 2000? The only site with remotely interesting written content is Polygon.com. For one simple reason. Your eyes don´t want to jump out of your skull while reading an article there.

People consume much, much more content these days- so the strain on the eyes (and the brain) gets bigger and bigger. There are two ways to counter this: Make stupid clickbait top ten articles- or get a layout that people want to look at. Well, or video- but Giantbomb has always been pretty good on that front.

I predict that we'll have a far better understanding of what the new hardware is capable of by the end of the year and all comparisons so far are fundamentally flawed as they're on launch games.

@giantlizardking: indeed...yawn

Here, here.

Great article and predictions, but I think I'd bet against streaming going totally mainstream this year. The PS4 has Twitch integration, but the whole process is loaded with problems. Stream quality isn't optimal (a lot of the time it's not even good), and you can't archive locally or on Twitch. Unless you already have a decent following watching your streams live, that means that a very high number of streams going out over PS4 are being broadcast to zero people. The system will be improved and updated eventually, but it needs some lengthy and fundamental changes.

Loved the article Patrick, insightful and well written as always. Too bad there are a handful of duders who have nothing better to do than hide behind the anonymity of the internet and type bold, subjective opinions with little or no value to anything except their ego.

Keep trucking, love the content.

My predication is that through various efforts and investment in community management, education, awareness campaigns and peer review that the tone of the discourse around gaming on the internet will be respectful, moderate, and civil...

Pfffffffffffwhahahahaha. I couldn't keep a straight face. It'll never happen. I'm really sorry. Turn on the console, and mute everyone. Always.

To the giantbomb community, you are miles ahead of most places. Love.

I am going to disagree with the comment about the quality of games in 2013 that it relates to having to look beyond the "AAA" titles. On a purely personal level that is.

There was just nothing that really grabbed me 2013 by the nuts and made me love it, like I can say about say 2012 or many other previous years. Nothing I really looked forward to. There were plenty of games I liked but none to love. How this relates to that part of the article is that this is with me playing or at least trying out several times more of the indie or smaller budged titles in '13 then any of the safe big stuff so to speak.I looked past the A, A and A but there was just silver at best for me :P

This year however I am already looking forward to enough titles to fill half of my potential GotY list right off the bat (IF they turn out at least as expected). The Witcher 3, Reaper of Souls, Wasteland 2 (altho the beta was hella shaky), Pillars of Eternity, Titanfall, Thief, Dark Souls 2.

I do agree that you have to have a whole lot of time on your hands to bitch about the *title* of an article on GB. Their titles are usually ridiculous on purpose?!?!?

This was all sexy, I love it.

Seriously, the core takeaway about the characters of Bioshock Infinite is that everyone's a goddamn monster. Including Booker. Including Elizabeth by the end. Not a single person in that game is a good person. The only people who you could conceivably cut some slack are Robert Lutece and Elizabeth.

@patrickklepek: Not to say they couldn't have used MORE Move games, but seriously, what marketing? Honestly, I don't remember one Move advertisement at all but I do remember Kinect ones.

I didn't like Bio-Shock either, most likely because it was a shooter. Felt like the whole experience was being forced down my throat, when I just wanted to cruise and explore. I don't have the hate from big games like some folks though, I prefer the polish and scale over these more beta like indie titles.

Man, I hope 2014 doesn't come with more hippie bullshit in games. Unless it contains Incense And Peppermints at every opportunity.

People giving him shit for the title are clearly missing a joke. Anyway, I think if something unexpected happens this year, it'll have to do with EA. A couple more duds and they're going to need to start selling assets.

i predict that in 2014 the gap between full priced games and indie will continue to slim. There will be more games like gone home and the Stanley Parable. In the wake of Watch Dogs (which won't be as revolutionary as the trailer promised. But wil still be a perfectly fine game) more games wil pick up on the government surveillance theme.

Mingleplayer quite won't work the way it's supposed to yet. Most games will feature some real money shortcuts. The pricing and economy of which will fix itself during 2014.

The variety of Steam-Machines that will be released this year wil bridge the gap between pc and console gaming. Accesible Virtual Reality will be a realistic reality before the end of this year.

And lastly swinging your dick around in a circular helicopteresque motion in front of your kinect or you playstation camera for ps4 will be the next teabagging.

Innnn the yeaar 2000! Nice work, Patrick

I doubt that. EA has surely had its share of fuck-ups, but it still sells a shit-ton of games and makes money. They don't always make people that play their games happy, but people are still going to buy that new version of Madden, FIFA, or Battlefield anyway.

PSI-OPS 2! THIS IS THE YEAR GUYS!!!

Top marks I'll definitely add my praise to this level headed thought. Remember that the higher you climb the bigger the risks. Not everyone wants to cast everything on a throw of the dice for some 'higher moral/artistic principle'

@heatdrive88: You can't miss sales projections for SimCity, Battlefield 4, Dead Space 3, Medal of Honor, NBA Live, and other games in sequence without there being ramifications.

I hate this cry too, if every game was a gone home clone i would have no interest in playing a single game ever, i'd rather read a book for the story than that.

+1

Additionally, can someone fill me on why exactly Infinite is perceived to be a sub-par shooter? At least with respect to the controls and flow? And how it's any worse than the previous Bioshock games (and if you didn't like the original, presumably for similar reasons, why?)? I played it on the PC and found it to basically be the same as the original Bioshock in terms of controls and feel. Most people thought that game let you shoot dudes pretty well, so what gives?

I personally found it to be somewhat more challenging on Normal than most other shooters (ditto original Bioshock) and it really rewards you for intelligent use of your powers in tandem with your guns. Go after the story all you want (I loved it), but questioning the mechanics of the shooting seems nitpicky to me. I didn't notice any technical shortcomings (hit box errors, inconsistent damage application, etc) so I'm really just curious to hear what you guys think.

...or you end up with games like BioShock Infinite, games seemingly constrained by the need to be a shooter to sell.

Somewhere in Boston Ken Levine breathes a sigh of relief that someone finally "gets it" and proceeds to make "BioShock: The One About a Fantastical City Full of Nice People and is Run By a Genuinely Kind-Hearted Man/Woman With a Nice Disposition".

Prediction: Patrick Klepek will continue to advocate for video games I have no interest in playing but will redeem himself by streaming himself playing a bunch of stupid horror games over the internet.

Even System Shock was at heart a shooter, by 2000's standard. But it had so much adventure tie ins that it essentaly was an fps-horror-adventure-rpg.