2011 NHL Playoff Stock Picker!

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Suicrat

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#1  Edited By Suicrat

That's right, folks ! The Sharks... I mean the NHL playoffs are back! Every year around this time, I make a half-hearted attempt at putting together a stock picker pool. These things are way less complicated and way more fun than they look, I swear! If you want to participate it's relatively straightforward.

The way it works is this:

  • You get a set number of 'points' to buy 'shares' of the teams you think will fare best in their 2011 Stanley Cup run.
  • There's just one catch, the higher the team is seeded, the more expensive it is to buy a share in them.
  • A team's share price corresponds to the ranking of their opponent, so if you wanted to buy 3 shares of Canucks' stock, it would cost you 24 of your allotted points, since they're playing the 8th ranked team in the first round (3*8=24).
  • Short selling is allowed! If you think a team is going to do poorly, bet against them and you'll get more points to invest in other teams. So if you think Vancouver's going to bow out to the Blackhawks yet again, short sell them by 2 shares and you'll get 16 points back! (-2*8=16)
  • You get points for wins! Every time a team you invested in wins a game, you get 1 point multiplied by the amount of shares you hold. So if you bought 4 shares of Chicago and they win their series against the Canucks, they will earn you 16 points. (4*4=16)

The second round -- also known as the Conference Quarter-finals -- begins tomorrow! Vancouver hosts Nashville tomorrow night, while the Red Wings travel to Silicon Valley for the fifth time in this under-rated rivalry's history. Back East, Boston travels to Philly yet again, hoping to forget about the total meltdown they experienced at the hands of the Flyers in 2010. And to round it all out is Washington and Tampa Bay. This Southeast Division matchup has the makings of a barn-burner, and it will also be the series that draws the second most amount of my attention (after Detroit/SJ of course!)
No Caption Provided


You can download the spreadsheet here!
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Lemmycaution217

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#2  Edited By Lemmycaution217

Yeee, the Sharks are my home team. Go San Jose!

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chmod

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#3  Edited By chmod

I'll have to get in on this.


Is the total number of points to spend 81 per conference? Or is it 162 for the entire league?
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Suicrat

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#4  Edited By Suicrat
@Theavsfan: That's a good question, Avs fan (sorry your team kinda fell off this year; I thought they showed a lot of promise last year.)

In years past, I've tried to enforce an even split but I find the more regulations you bog your stock picker pool down with, fewer people want to participate. So if you'd like to get involved, I can send you the spreadsheet so you don't have to write up all the functions yourself. Either PM me your email address or link me to a place where I can upload the document.
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matti00

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#5  Edited By matti00

How does scoring work? Do you get a point for every share invested in the winning team? I would be willing to have a go at this with you, but you're right, it does look complicated haha

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chilibean_3

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#6  Edited By chilibean_3

I can't wait for the Sharks to get beat in the second or third round again!  :(

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Suicrat

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#7  Edited By Suicrat
@matti00: 
Whoops! I guess I didn't explain that part, I'll update the rules!

Basically every time a team gets a win, you get 1 point multiplied by whatever amount you invested in them. So if you bought 6 shares of Vancouver, and they won their series against Chicago, you'd get 24 points. (6*4=24.)

Also, someone tell me where I can upload and share the .xls for free, anyone?
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Example1013

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#8  Edited By Example1013

Let's go Whalers!

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Suicrat

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#9  Edited By Suicrat
@example1013: :)
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chmod

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#10  Edited By chmod

If you have a gmail account, I'd recommend Google Documents. I believe that would work.

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Example1013

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#11  Edited By Example1013
@Suicrat: I'm not sure how to deal with the fact that there's a team again. The Whalers was always a joke cheer during the sports report during Morning Flags at summer camp, because they no longer existed. I mean, technically they're still defunct, since I think the team is now called the "Whale", but still.

Also, what's an NHL?
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Suicrat

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#12  Edited By Suicrat
@Theavsfan: Apparently these guys will let me do it. If it doesn't work, I'll investigate google documents further.
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chmod

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#13  Edited By chmod
@Suicrat said:
" @Theavsfan: That's a good question, Avs fan (sorry your team kinda fell off this year; I thought they showed a lot of promise last year.)
A top 3 pick in this years draft will be just the medicine we need. 
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Commisar123

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#14  Edited By Commisar123

Lets go Blackhawks :)

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Suicrat

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#15  Edited By Suicrat
@Theavsfan: I suppose there's solace in that. I want a more colourful playoffs, dammit! The Avs need to get back to the dance!

It kind of bugs me that both the Sharks and Kings are going with their less colourful alternates for home games, and that next year the Kings will be abandoning the colour purple altogether.

  @Commisar123: If you like the Blackhawks and no one else, if you invest all 162 of your points in the Blackhawks, you will win the pool if they win the Stanley Cup, because nobody is going to get anywhere close to 2 592 points.
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ShadowVirus

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#16  Edited By ShadowVirus

How exactly can I get in on this? Download the spreadsheet and add out shares into them upload it here?


Also, go Ducks!
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Suicrat

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#17  Edited By Suicrat
@ShadowVirus: Yeah, download the spreadsheet, but you don't have to upload the file a second time, just post a screen shot, or list the numbers of shares you've bought of each team using the naked text editor. As long as the math checks out (and your points spent is equal to or less than 162) then you'll be in! I'll update this thread daily if it's warranted and enough people get involved.
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Commisar123

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#18  Edited By Commisar123
@Suicrat:
Hey go big or go home right? XD
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McNaastyy

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#19  Edited By McNaastyy

GO WINGS!!!! FTW

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ShadowVirus

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#20  Edited By ShadowVirus

Maybe this is intentional but I think I found a flaw in your maths. If you bet on any of the high ranked teams you can't win any points even they win the series.

For example if I bet 5 shares on the ducks, that cost 25 points, even if they win 4 games I'm only even gonna earn 20 points, no matter how much I bet on them I can't get a profit.
Also if I put minus stocks onto a team, I'll lost stocks when a team wins because a negative times a positive is a negative.
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Suicrat

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#21  Edited By Suicrat
@ShadowVirus: 
First of all, betting on favourites is supposed to carry a lower reward because betting on the team that's supposed to win isn't very risky.

Secondly, unless you sell your shares in a team after the first round, they can still make a profit for you if they make it further into the playoffs.

In other words, the higher ranked a team is, the further they need to go in the playoffs to make investing in them worthwhile. If you spend 64 points buying 8 shares in the Canucks and they don't make it to the conference finals, you'll have taken a loss on that investment.

And of course you lose points if you short against a team that ends up doing well, just like how you lose money if you short a stock that gains value.
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hockeymask27

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#22  Edited By hockeymask27

I think I'm to dumb for this. But go habs??-

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ShadowVirus

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#23  Edited By ShadowVirus
@Suicrat: Oh ok, so it's more of a long term investment type deal? Thanks for clearing that up.
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Suicrat

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#24  Edited By Suicrat
@ShadowVirus: Sorry, I should have said that from the start.
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matti00

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#25  Edited By matti00

 @Theavsfan said:

" @Suicrat said:

" @Theavsfan: That's a good question, Avs fan (sorry your team kinda fell off this year; I thought they showed a lot of promise last year.)
A top 3 pick in this years draft will be just the medicine we need.  "
Landeskog will be worth it! Stewart who?
I'm gonna work on my picks this evening, then I'll post it before the games start (won't be able to watch them til tomorrow anyway).
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KaosAngel

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#26  Edited By KaosAngel

Flyers, all in.

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Suicrat

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#27  Edited By Suicrat

Alright, so we've got a few people declaring their exclusive love for specific teams, so I'm gonna update this thing with charts that show what would happen if you put all your points on one team.

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matti00

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#28  Edited By matti00
@Suicrat:  Put all your points on the Avs and I don't think you'd do very well, where are the Canucks and Bruins fans?
And on that note, here's my picks. You might be able to tell from my comment above the teams I think are gonna be in the final.

No Caption Provided
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Suicrat

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#29  Edited By Suicrat
@matti00: Thanks for the upload, matti00! I'll post this along with the rest on the first page.
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ShadowVirus

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#30  Edited By ShadowVirus

No Caption Provided
Better late than never right? Here's my picks.
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Suicrat

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#31  Edited By Suicrat
@ShadowVirus: Interesting picks, Shadowvirus. I hope you don't mind that I'm cheering for the Preds.
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dunc12

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#32  Edited By dunc12

No Caption Provided
My picks. Go Canucks! And if the Canucks are going out, it'll be to the 'Hawks, if history tells us anything. Therefore, points to the Hawks as well
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Suicrat

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#33  Edited By Suicrat

Thanks to the 7 participants (aside from myself) who've posted their picks, I can already tell after the first day that this is going to be a great playoff run. And to reiterate the edit I made to my first post: it's not too late to participate, you just won't get credit for any of the 5 wins that were earned tonight. But fear not, there are up to 100 wins left to earn, so you aren't far behind!

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matti00

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#34  Edited By matti00

Damn Red Wings, I really want the Coyotes to go through. Plus Franzen is an asshole, and I really wish he'd stop being such a beast every time April rolls around.

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Suicrat

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#35  Edited By Suicrat

Sharks escaped with a win tonight, they're gonna have to be better for game 2.

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AgentJ

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#36  Edited By AgentJ

Come on Vancouver, Cascadia is just BEGGING for a winner. 

@example1013 said:
" Let's go Whalers! "
Nice! In a perfect world, Seattle would have the NHL, and Hartford would still have theirs. 
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CrazedMaverick

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#37  Edited By CrazedMaverick

:whimpers: go predators....

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Suicrat

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#38  Edited By Suicrat
@CrazedMaverick said:
" :whimpers: go predators.... "
Say it loud! The Preds have a good team, consistently, every year! And this year's one of their best. I really hope they beat Anaheim.
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71Ranchero

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#39  Edited By 71Ranchero

Perhaps this isnt the best place for this but DAMN Price was a brick wall. That game was an upset for me last night. Bruins lost but it wasnt for a lack of trying.

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Suicrat

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#40  Edited By Suicrat
@Atramentous: Nah, dude. By all means, talk hockey here. It'll keep the thread bumped.

Also, the Bruins just didn't seem to have their legs last night, and the Habs managed to get Chara off his game. I expect much better from the B's on saturday.
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71Ranchero

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#41  Edited By 71Ranchero
@Suicrat: 

I know, it was a tough one to watch but damn if they did put some pressure on Price a few times there. Gotta give it up to the man, seeing that brings back memories of pre-strike hockey. It was over well before it happened but when Chara got in the box with 2 minutes to go it was GG for me. 
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Suicrat

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#42  Edited By Suicrat
@Atramentous: Speaking of pre-strike hockey, only 27 goals scored by the 16 teams so far. Goalies are having none of it.
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71Ranchero

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#43  Edited By 71Ranchero
@Suicrat: 

Well its about time. Hockey has been a low tier sport ever since that damn strike. These guys should ramp it up a bit. I think allot of players just stopped putting in the effort after the salary cap.

We just need pre-strike Bruins back and Ill be a happy camper :P
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Suicrat

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#44  Edited By Suicrat
@Atramentous: 
Sorry, dude. Sharks aren't giving up Thornton any time soon ;)
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Milkman

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#45  Edited By Milkman

WHY WON'T THE RANGERS SCORE A GOAL?!

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Mighty

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#46  Edited By Mighty

My Avs aren't in it... boo.

AND SCREW THE RED WINGS!

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Suicrat

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#47  Edited By Suicrat

Day 3 is in the books, folks; and this was the day the goals came back... if you don't play or cheer for the Rangers...

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dunc12

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#48  Edited By dunc12

Canucks with a narow win over the hawks, now is when I start getting nervous...

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matti00

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#49  Edited By matti00
@dunc12 said:
" Canucks with a narow win over the hawks, now is when I start getting nervous... "
It's not the playoffs if you're not nervous for every minute of it.
After 2 periods of Caps @ Rangers it's 1-1, despite the Caps taking a lot of penalties and having 3 times as many giveaways as New York. This is the point that I give up on the Rangers, if they can't capitalise on this, there's no hope for them. Plus, Neuvirth is a beast! Had him in my fantasy team, kept me alive.
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Vinny_Says

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#50  Edited By Vinny_Says
@Suicrat: You do understand the sharks will NEVER win right? It happens every year, I don't see why people think they won't choke yet again....


If I had to choose I would chose the greatest team of all time, but I don't live there anymore and I don't see them getting past the second round :(