Box Office Winner's League: Blackhat

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rorie

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Edited By rorie  Staff

It's that time again!

m'asgard
m'asgard

If any of you were around for the old days at Screened, you'll recall that we used to run a contest called Box Office Winners League when we got the feeling to do so. It's a simple premise: guess how much money a movie is going to make in a given weekend, and if you're the closest guess, you win! There's a bit of skill in it, since box office is roughly predictable, and there are tracking companies that are paid quite a bit to do so, but there's also a lot of luck, since almost no one is able to consistently guess a box office weekend with any degree of accuracy or precision.

The rules are pretty simple.

1. Guess how much money the moviesBlackhat will make in its opening weekend in the U.S. We'll count all the money it makes through next Monday, which includes the Thursday night previews. Just throw it in as a reply to this post, e.g.: $56.79 million (be as specific as you like).

Couple of things to keep in mind: the movie is not getting great reviews (40% on Rotten Tomatoes as of right now), and American Sniper is going to make a shitload of money this weekend. (It's the only movie in history that has ever had three straight weekends with a per-screen average of over $100,000, which is an odd metric, but still interesting.) They're both R-rated adult dramas, so you can expect Blackhat to come in a distant second to Sniper; Paddington might also beat it. So take all that into account!

2. Make your guesses as a reply to this thread, and make sure that they're in by Thursday 1/15 at 9 PM PST/Midnight EST/whatever crazy clock time you have in your crazy timezone. I won't count anything after that. I'm going to take screenshots of the replies at that point, so don't bother editing your post or deleting a post and trying again later.

3. The winners will be determined next Monday or Tuesday, when actual box office figures are released at boxofficemojo.com. Weekend estimates are often released on Sunday afternoon, but we'll wait for the real numbers to determine a winner. I'll compare that number to see who's closest; over or under doesn't matter. In case of any ties, I'll decide between the entries with either a coin flip or some other randomized method.

4. There'll be two winners. The closest Premium member will win something cool I'll figure out tomorrow and edit in here. The closest non-Premium member will get two months of Premium access.

That's pretty much it! Go forth and prosper, or something. I'll reserve the right to change any of these rules as I see fit before the deadline, but I doubt that'll be necessary. (Don't be a dick and make it necessary, in other words.)

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csl316

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$12.1 million!

Because someone will think it's Thor 3!

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Mento

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#2  Edited By Mento  Moderator

I'll say $18.5mil. The combination of Hemsworth and Michael Mann might simultaneously attract two different breeds of moviegoer, so there's no saying how popular it'll be despite poor word of mouth.

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lanerobertlane

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$45m - I have never paid attention to how much movies make so this is a pure stab in the dark.

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stevenprice

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$15.5 million

Screened lives!

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Milkman

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Sure, I'll take a stab.

$14.8m. This movie looks like ass, by the way.

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spraynardtatum

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10.2 million.

What blows my mind is that Paddington is at a 96% on Rottentomatoes. I didn't realize that critics are mostly children now.

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nophilip

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$11 million. This will probably be my only interaction with this movie in any way.

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kasaioni

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#8  Edited By kasaioni
No Caption Provided

One million dollars.

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liquiddragon

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#9  Edited By liquiddragon

too many competitive horses in this weekend's race. the movie looks terrible, hemsworth isn't recognizable unless he is playing thor, mann is in a major slump, and i think the ladies like bradley cooper way better.

even with monday, i gotta go pretty low...

$7.8 million

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TheHT

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$21.3 million

I have no idea what Blackhat is.

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telliot

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$6 Million.

Thor shouldn't be making a job transition in this economic climate.

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enemylandlord

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$9.5 million. No faith in Blackhat.

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49th

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#13  Edited By 49th

I'll bet 17.2 million dollars on 17.2 million dollar please.

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FranticRain

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#14  Edited By FranticRain

$25.4 Million.

Whats a movie?

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ripelivejam

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No guess but hemsworth is another vastly more successful and beautiful person slightly younger than me and for that he can get bent.

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allprox

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5.2 million dollars.

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Monkeyman04

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$18 million, Bob.

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ocelotfox

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$8.8 million, a resounding January thud.

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CherryBerry

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#19  Edited By CherryBerry

7.1 million

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smackdown52

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9.54 Million

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Jnal

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$13.2 Million

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GamerChiCcK

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13.54 million

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Wemibelle

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9.875 million. I know nothing about movies.

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kalmia64

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$8.2 million!

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mike

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$8.2m

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djpizzaparty

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$9.6m!

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meaninoflife42

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Based on super accurate scientific calculations, (okay... just Wikipedia,) I'm going to guess $21.7 million.

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RonGalaxy

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14.3 million. Do you think Michael Mann will ever make another great movie? He's getting to that age where the odds are beginning to turn against him. I'll always have heat and collateral, I guess...

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Nux

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$13 million

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Sooperspy

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#30  Edited By Sooperspy

The movie looks bad. Or maybe not so much bad, but it certainly doesn't look interesting.

I'd say $16.5 million

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FrozenPixel

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$6.3 million

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nightriff

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24.8 Million

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itsmensch

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40.3 million as a random guess

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Voxus

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9.2 Million

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winsord

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#35  Edited By winsord

Edit: Chickened out, going with $15.22m (original guess was 26)

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z3wpk

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$12.6 Million probably more but whatever

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jeffgrubb

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#37  Edited By jeffgrubb  Staff

Based on Red Dawn and Blackhat's marketing and R-rating:

$17.51 million

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eshchan

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7.9 million

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dannyglover

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#39  Edited By dannyglover

$14.41 million

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mbradley1992

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$9,457,224.

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JayPB08

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$11.4 million

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JBG4

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$13.87 Million Dollars!!!!

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ArbitraryWater

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12.5 million

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Do_The_Manta_Ray

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Oh, Rorie. Shine on, you crazy Diamond.

17 million.

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XanderCrews

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10.7 million

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I_Stay_Puft

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$6.3 million

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GaspoweR

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#47  Edited By GaspoweR

$13,846,721.19 M

There! That should be specific enough!

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@rongalaxy said:

14.3 million. Do you think Michael Mann will ever make another great movie? He's getting to that age where the odds are beginning to turn against him. I'll always have heat and collateral, I guess...

And The Insider, which is incredible! Unfortunately, I have to agree with you... I really can't imagine him creating another gem.

That said, I'm still guessing a little high: $20 mil

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Hunter5024

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8.3 million

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solusimpar

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14.5 million