I believe it is simply a religious idea, that was based off of a very basic social rule that has applied to us and our ancestors for a very long time: In a social sense, if you treat others with respect, kindness, and help when needed, you are significantly more likely to get the same treatment back.
It has nothing to do with absolute justice or spiritual judgement, as far as we know or probably can ever prove. However, I don't think it even is that black/white even in the religious Buddhism (etc) sense... in the "generalized" organized-religious karmic systems we have today that I know of, it's not black and white either... as in, "God" (nature, social structure, luck, whatever) works in mysterious ways... Quite often, in life, bad things happen to you, or others, that seem horrible at the time. But then the person in question grows in some very important way, or receives more in return because of some unexpected benefit later on that they didn't perceive would happen initially. It certainly happens, but is not guaranteed, of course (as far as we know or probably ever will know).
So yes, in a basic sense, we KNOW that Karma is true in a social sense (to a certain extent), and that is simply the basis for the religious belief in the same.
I find it odd how many people in the thread just dismiss it outright, which is the same as believing in it absolutely. We can't prove it either way, so don't speak in absolutes when the idea being discussed cannot be proven either way - true or not. Even if you think it unlikely, which I believe is short-sighted in this case - being that Karma essentially DOES exist in a social sense, and that is easily "proven."
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