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    Mario Party is a collection of mini-games played with a variety of iconic Nintendo characters. They are notable for being games of skill.

    The Mario Party Party Tracker (MPP7 Updated)

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    turboman

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    Edited By turboman
    No Caption Provided

    The Mario Party Party Tracker

    (MPP7 UPDATE: New graphs and tables below, and new updated sections for each of our players. I added in stats to dice rolls throughout the game for MPP7. Enjoy?)

    Hello everyone, and welcome to my insanity.

    We are currently falling head first into the remaining four Mario Party Parties in the next couple of months while Dan is still on the west coast, so I thought it would be fitting to compile ALL of the data of the past couple of years and assemble The Mario Party Party Tracker.

    The main function of the tracker to me personally is a way to show who's winning the overall game of Mario Party Party(MPP). As we all know Dan is ahead of his competition in terms of wins in Mario Party, having 3 wins out of the 6 games that have been played so far. The ultimate problem with the Giant Bomb series would be if Dan managed to get two more wins before Mario Party 10 and make it mathematically impossible for anyone else to catch up. If that happened, the all-important narrative of the series would dissolve into nothing.

    The solution of this would be to track the overall game a little bit differently. With the MPP Tracker, the overall positions are tracked by the percentages of stars and coins owned by each competitor. For example, at the end of the first Mario Party, Dan owns 7 stars (and 16 coins) out of the possible 13 stars (and 70 coins) that was on the board by the end of the game, so his percentage number of owned stars/coins ended up being 53% of the board. These stats are carried over from game to game.

    I wanted to factor in coins to the overall percentage owned on the board, so I started at one star being equivalent to 30 coins. However, I wanted the standings of every Mario Party to be congruent with my Tracker. So I had to adjust the value of the coins on the tracker until I got my desired results. If you look at MPP 4, you can see that each of the competitors had an absurd amount of coins, making the value of the coins go down (616 coins on the board at the end). So the best value for the coins I could get without any of the results being wonky would be 160 coins to one star.

    Quick note: if you want to make it simpler for yourself, you can just focus on the total number of stars owned. And if we manage to end in a tie, then you can factor in the rest.

    With all of that out of the way, let's see where our current standings are in regards to the MPP Tracker:

    No Caption Provided
    Current Standings
    PlayerPosition% OwnedBehindStarsCoinsMini-Game AwardCoin AwardHappening AwardMario Party Wins
    Dan Ryckert139.18%Leader526495234
    Jeff Gerstmann224.87%-14.31%325731320
    Drew Scanlon322.14%-17.04%302691122
    Brad Shoemaker413.80%-25.38%182800121
    1. Dan Ryckert

    With Mario Party Party 7, Dan continues to prove his point: Mario Party is a game of skill. Dan increases his lead in the overall meta game, and currently has twenty more stars than anyone else. At this rate, Dan can probably tank if he wanted to and still come away with the highest amount of stars & coins.

    In MPP7, Dan made great use of the Boo orb that steals his opponent's stars, trapping other players 5 times. He also came away with the most mini-game victories with 9 solo wins, and was on the winning side of a game 25 times total (Dan gained coins from mini games over 50% of the time).

    Dan's late game in MPP7 was down right inspirational. On turn 41, Dan used a flutter orb to gain a star and rolled a dice to gain another star in one turn. Two turns later he had another two star turn via his Boo steal orb. Two turns after that, he had a three star turn because of two more boo steal orbs that were laid out on the board.

    2. Jeff Gerstmann

    Jeff has still not won a game of Mario Party, however he is clearly the most consistently good player of Mario Party whether he wants to admit it or not.

    No Caption Provided

    After trailing Drew by a very small margin, Jeff has finally moved forward into second place in the overall meta game of Mario Party Party. Outside of Dan, Jeff also gained a lot by using his Boo steal orbs, stealing three stars throughout the game.

    3. Drew Scanlon

    Drew... had a pretty rough game. The only reason he came out ahead of Brad was because of a star awarded to him in the "Bullshit Finale" 51st turn for him using the most orbs out of everyone else. However, it should be noted that even though Drew didn't have a good outing, there are some good things to say about his performance. Most notably the VICIOUS use of the Pirhanna Orb, which trapped his opponents a whopping six times in MPP7. He was also a lot better at the Gondola ride than Dan was.

    1. Brad Shoemaker

    Brad finished in last again, making this his fourth time. However, he did have the second most wins in mini-games. Unfortunately, Brad didn't make good use of his orbs. In fact, he made zero use of his orbs, since no other players fell on any of his traps.

    ---

    No Caption Provided

    If you want to take a look at the stats for yourself and missed the link at the top, here it is again:

    The Mario Party Party Tracker

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    Yesiamaduck

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    #1  Edited By Yesiamaduck

    Man I hope they stick with standard ass mario party map next time, their choice of map last time dragged the game down a billion notches from entertaining to tedious

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    ZombiePie

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    As someone who loves the Mario Party franchise, and has played every game in the series, I look forward to seeing how everyone who loves creating statistics for Mario Party Party factor in every game after 9. Because they retired stars, coins, and even circular maps at that point.

    Man I hope they stick with standard ass mario party map next time, their choice of map last time dragged the game down a billion notches from entertaining to tedious

    That's not possible anymore. Starting with Mario Party 7 each game has the conceit that every map forces the player to acquire stars completely differently. One of the maps in 8 is straight up Fortune Street. Then starting with 9 every game has the players going through a map on the same vehicle and there aren't stars anymore.

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    MezZa

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    #3  Edited By MezZa

    @zombiepie said:

    @yesiamaduck said:

    Man I hope they stick with standard ass mario party map next time, their choice of map last time dragged the game down a billion notches from entertaining to tedious

    That's not possible anymore. Starting with Mario Party 7 each game has the conceit that every map forces the player to acquire stars completely differently. One of the maps in 8 is straight up Fortune Street. Then starting with 9 every game has the players going through a map on the same vehicle and there aren't stars anymore.

    Not true. Grand Canal and DK's Treetop Temple are standard get the randomly placed star for 20 coins maps in MP7 and MP8 respectively. I don't know about any after that though since that's when they fell off the old style and started doing the everyone moves together thing.

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    MudKatt

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    @turboman Yes!! This is great! Very nicely done

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    GERALTITUDE

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    Incredible work, turboman.

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    Drebin_893

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    You're a God Turboman.

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    Marty20k

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    This is amazing, great work as usual my man!

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    Rafaelfc

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    #8  Edited By Rafaelfc

    I love stats!!

    Thank you so much Turboman this is really awesome!

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    Cirdain

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    PeezMachine

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    It's good to see the awesome power of statistics harnessed for such an awful, awful cause.

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    Bollard

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    I'm surprised and glad Drew is in second.

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    deactivated-6104e52a892af

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    Awesome breakdown. I enjoyed reading it.

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    forteexe21

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    #14 forteexe21  Online

    Numbers dont matter! Drew is #1.

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    hunterob

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    I think it would be glorious to see Jeff actually win overall despite his incredible disdain for this whole thing.

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    newmoneytrash

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    Jeff's stats are real good considering he has never really been in it at the end of a game

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    RoaRawR

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    #17  Edited By RoaRawR

    Mario party make 4 men play with sticks

    (it is the palm hurting rowing mini-game from first mario party)

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    ripelivejam

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    come on brad i believe in you!!! or maybe you just don't care and that's fine too

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    MillaJ

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    #19  Edited By MillaJ

    A thorough analysis of Jeff's despair. Great work!

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    turboman

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    Ok, I've updated the tracker to now include MPP7. And hey, look, Jeff is in 2nd place now if you believe in math.

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    Retris

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    The big thing I've wondered about is who would be the winner if the cut off point for every game was turn 20, like a normal, non-insane person would play. Because my gut feeling is that 50 turn Mario Party is not really a game of skill, but a game of stamina. Dan is the only one who doesn't get tired and give up (hope) by the end of the game.

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    TylerDurden4321

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    #22  Edited By TylerDurden4321

    I thought about Dan's "game of skill"-"not random" argument and...

    in science, if you want to show “statistical significance” to a thesis, it’s common practice to show that the relevant samples in your study stand out in way that they are off the “expected” value more than 2x the standard deviation (that’s a probability of about 5% for this value to occur naturally). So if Brad, Dan, Drew and Brad would you have the same (random) chance at winning a Mario Party party, then...

    the probability of each player winning a party would be 25% (p = 0.25); with 10 samples or “parties” (n = 10),

    the expected outcome would be 2.5 wins for everyone (in a Binomial Distribution E = n*p <=> E = 10*0.25 = 2.5).

    The standard deviation in a Binomial Distribution is calculated σ[sigma]= √n(1 - p) p <=> σ= 1.36931.

    So, to be 2x the standard deviation off the expected value, Dan would need to win 2*1.36931+2.5 = 5.23862 Mario Party parties (basically 6), to show a scientific relevance to his claim that these games are not random.

    No Caption Provided

    The orange line marks the 2 sigma mark for "statistical significance" (~5%) and the red line marks the 3 sigma mark for "high statistical significance" (~1%).

    Edit: And a big Thanks to Turboman for keeping "track" *thumb up*

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    Drebin_893

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    Turboman you are a God. This was, is, and continues to be, great.

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    Captain_Insano

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    Dan and Jeff are the two polar opposites in the "game of skill" v "game of luck" argument.

    Dan = #1. Therefore it's a game of skill

    Jeff = #2 most skilled player, but has no Mario party wins. Therefore it is a game of luck.

    Mario Party proves why roll and move board games are generally terrible. (Board Games generally though, are excellent! So glad modern board games have moved away from roll and move).

    This edit will also create new pages on Giant Bomb for:

    Beware, you are proposing to add brand new pages to the wiki along with your edits. Make sure this is what you intended. This will likely increase the time it takes for your changes to go live.

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