While I'm hopeful that NIntendo will pull another rabbit out of its big red hat, the situation is pretty dire. Considering only the stock price, as an indicator of investor's estimated future profit potential, Nintendo is back to the pre-Wii situation which, you may remember, was rather dire. The general consensus was that Nintendo's hardware (both the DS and the Wii) had to be a hit for Nintendo to remain healthy. Of course, both were huge hits and Nintendo's stock exploded (at the height of Wii hype, Nintendo stock was over ¥70.000 per share, almost six times the current value).
They're now back to the same position they were in in 2006, but instead of the DS and the Wii (Revolution at the time), they have the 3DS and Wii U to work with. Not only is the marketplace (and the global economy for that matter) different, but they're also competing against their former selves. Both the 3DS and Wii U invoke thoughts of their predecessors, through name, appearance and functionality. How are they going to convince DS owners who now just play shitty iPhone games that they should buy a 3DS? How are they going to convince Wii owners whose shiny little toy has been gathering dust for years that the Wii U will be different?
We've all been asking those questions ever since these new devices were announced and the stakes have been getting higher. Most gamers' answer is that Nintendo should make more and better games and people will start buying consoles and software. But that hasn't exactly worked for Nintendo for the past fifteen years or so. Perhaps partly because the games they do develop are less amazing and less original as time goes by. But more importantly, I think, because people demand something different from video games nowadays. Nintendo has been hopelessly out of touch, and I've been one of the schmucks defending their decision making because I don't care about online and I don't care about graphics and I don't care about shootan games. But the rest of the world does, and by sticking to their old ways, Nintendo has painted itself into a corner, or a niche, if you will. A niche that cannot sustain a console, let alone an entire company the size of Nintendo. Especially since Sony and Microsoft are also increasingly catering to that niche market.
So it turns out Nintendo hasn't been doing all that well for as long as most of us can remember. All the hype around Nintendo's success in recent years is based on two products. The DS has done very well over a long period of time, but the 3DS has a hard time getting near the same level of success. It may still manage (after all, the DS had a slow start too), but it's a harder sell and the 3DS has actual competition. The Wii has turned out to be a flash in the pan. It has made Nintendo a lot of money in the short run, but hasn't substantially changed the position they're in when looking at the long term.
The blue ocean, it turns out, doesn't hold many fish.
That is all. ;-P
You're right on all accounts, straight up. It is insane that their stock prices are at Gamecube-levels. They're betting on the same two horses that pulled them out of the rut in 06, but, since 06, those horses have gotten old and stale, and that's the whole reason they're back in the rut in the first place. I honestly don't see a bright future ahead for Nintendo.
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