@zevvion: I wrote Zev a Novel, so for anyone else, you can just skip down to the DLDR if you want. Just to clarify, Destiny 1 sold a lot of copies, something like 12.85 million copies of the base game (VGChartz should be relatively accurate), and I think most of that was within the launch window before The Dark Below, since most new players would have bought the Collections in later releases if they didn't own anything yet (The Taken King sold another 3.97 million copies, and Rise of Iron another 930k copies, keep in mind this doesn't include separate DLC purchases or likely digital sales, and I'm just realizing Destiny 1 sold a whopping 17.75 million unique copies in it's 3 years, that's nuts). Like all games, for whatever reason I'll never understand, about 60% of those players never even finished the story and were never heard from again (based on PS4 trophy data, 40% never even finished Earth and did the Septiks Strike, and only 38.6% of players reached Vanguard Rank 1 and if you didn't do that, you didn't play past the campaign), but that's pretty typical of games in general. Another 20% got very pissed off that Destiny wasn't the game they wanted it to be, and for the most part rightfully so at launch of vanilla (of this group probably only a quarter of them ever even finished Vault of Glass and then left the game for good, I know many players who did exactly this), and that Raid Completion rate is only at 21.6%. We also know that 15% of players finished a Hard Raid, though keep in mind also this is any D1 Raid and not just Vault of Glass, so this is probably on the high side. It is very likely that it is this 15% that stuck around and bought The Dark Below and House of Wolves (I wish Dark Below had trophies that I could pull exact data from), but lets just use the Normal Raid completion as our Retention Stat. So your talking about a population of Destiny of around 2.76 million of that 12.85 million players. As far as daily retention rates, I don't think those numbers would be possible to find or estimate at this point, so from this point on I'll be referring to retention rates by how much of the community completed the normal and hard raids, since we have actual data for that (see below for how this correlates in Destiny 2 to our actual Daily active users).
So the Taken King comes around and rejuvenates Destiny. Even players who hated Destiny like Jeff really enjoyed it. Like I mentioned earlier it sells another 3.97 million copies of the game, not including DLC downloads which were easily in the 2.5-3 million range. Again, based on Trophy data we know that 27.1% of players finished The Taken King Quest (basically the DLC's story, and this is about 4.5 million players), that's of the now 16.82 million Destiny 2 players, which in all honestly is pretty amazing. Of that group though, only 9.4% finished King's Fall and 5.7% on Heroic. So again our retention audience is probably around 950k players, but may have been higher. There were a lot of players back then who didn't finish Heroic King's Fall but kept playing Trials. So this number could easily have been somewhere between 950k-1.58m. So that's a retention rate between 13.5-22.6% (based on 7 million users). It's does seem to be a bit higher than Vanilla though as we know a lot higher % of players finished the campaign, around 65% compared to 40%.
Last comes Rise of Iron which sold another 930k physical copies, and likely sold another 2 million or so downloads, so the total Rise of Iron population is down to around 3 million players at the most. Completion rate of the Rise of Iron Quest was at 14.7% (16.2% finished the first mission, or 2.87 million players), or 2.61 million of the now 17.75 million Destiny players. Wrath completion rates are at 5.3% and 3%, or 940k and 533k. So again, our player retention rates 87% for Campaign completion and between 17.8-31%.
Granted these are DLC's that were sold to more dedicated portions of the playerbase, but it's pretty obvious my assumptions were correct that player retention was much higher for the DLC's than Vanilla Destiny. Now lets compare that to what we know, empirically of Destiny 2. Destiny 2 was the Best selling game in 2017, before it released on PC, and before COD WWII launched. We also know from that same NPD release that it has only been outsold by COD: Infinite Warfare and Battlefield 1. So we know, at that time, Destiny 2 had sold less than 12.5 million which is what both of those games have sold roughly. The real problem is we don't know that bottom line of the 4th best game. They don't seem to be including either Fifa 17 or Uncharted 4, as those are the only two other real big hitters within the 12 month window previous to Destiny 2's release, and it's mainly obvious since Fifa 17 sold better than both COD: IW and Battlefield 1 and they claimed those two as game 1 and 2 in the comparison so it's likely they were talking about releases in the past 12 months from the report. So we really know is that Destiny 2 is doing well but not quite as well as Vanilla Destiny did at 12.85 million units sold. We do know it is for sure at least 5 million, since Trials of the Nine participation in Week 2 was at 1.07 million players and 21.7% of players have obtained the Trophy for going to the Third Spire for at least 1 win, and it's very likely Week 1 was much higher than that. We can also guess via Destinytracker that it's at least close to if not above the 6.9 million players they track individually, but outside of those, we don't really know at all how much Destiny 2 has sold. Of those X number of sales, we do know that a crazy 81.9% of those players beat the Campaign (or at least made it to Level 20) via Trophy data, but only 20.4% of those players have completed Leviathan Normal (or 1.4 million of our 6.9 million guesstimated userbase). For Destiny 2 we do know the retention rates of players due to Destinytracker, and that is that we had about 3.85 million active daily users a month ago, or 1 month in, and now are around 1.5-1.7 depending on the day (yesterday was 1.5m). So 2 months out, we are barely hovering above that guess of 1.4 million players who completed the Raid who still login everyday. So it's probably safe to assume those Normal Raid retention rates earlier were also off by about 20%. So lets run those guesstimated numbers. Destiny 2 is at about 24.6%, Vanilla Destiny at 25.92%, The Taken King at 27%, and Rise of Iron at 37.6%. Keep in mind that Vanilla Destiny stat is inflated since it's based on Raid Completions and include completions of any D1 Raid, not just during the Vanilla launch window (so that's the only one of those 4 stats I wouldn't consider to be very valid estimation of active daily users during those time periods, but since we don't really have any other frame of reference that I know of, I kept it).
DLDR: Now, this is a whole lot of information (see the last two sentences above this for the summation of all of that if you didn't read it), and guess work based on information we just don't know or have too little actual facts about, but my assertion that retention rates of Destiny 2 when compared to The Taken King and Rise of Iron being lower seems to be accurate as far as I can tell. Surprisingly only Rise of Iron had a higher Campaign completion rate, though that makes a lot of sense from the design choices Bungie made with Destiny 2. Now the bigger question is, how big of a deal is the drop from 3.85 million to 1.7 million Active Daily Users month over month from 1 month out to 2 months out. I don't know. How bad is it that we are currently sitting at under 25% of Users that still play? It certainly doesn't look great. I think ideally you want numbers around where they were for Rise of Iron, just shy of 40%, but I don't know if that is even feasible on an actual release. I do know that Destiny 2 had extremely high early retention rates, around 55.8% in the first month after release, so a lot of the playerbase really enjoyed it. IMO, Bungie needs to find a way to get that back somewhere between the current 24.6% and that 55.8%, and if they can do that, the game will be in great shape. If they can't, they probably won't sell much DLC for Destiny 2 throughout it's lifetime, and since the base numbers seem to be down for the Destiny 2 when compared to Destiny, that isn't a good thing. I really hope we see great things from Curse of Osiris tomorrow. One thing I'd like to note after looking at all of this is how eerily similar Destiny 2's metrics look to exactly where we were at with The Taken King. The game looks to, at least right now, retained pretty much all of The Taken King players, and nobody else (so it's possible those other 5 million players are gone for good, 3.6 million of which were on PS3/X360). That's kind of weird...
Side Note: Comparing Active Daily Users 2 months out from a free update like Age of Triumph to a DLC of a game in it's 3rd Year, after it's number sequel has not only been announced, talked about in detail, but is also currently in Beta, and that free Update also happens to have the literal worst PvP Meta of the entire 3 year life cycle of the original game... to Destiny 2 two months... please tell me you see how that is an absurd comparison.
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