It seems like the Xbox One will only have one SKU right? There is no way they go with the PS3's disastrous $599.99 price point, but I think that for all that hardware, with Kinect bundled in, $499 doesn't seem unreasonable. How much lower could they go if these consoles are going to be sold at a loss? Also: is the subsidized Xbox rumor definitely dead? I thought I heard that.
Sony will not fuck themselves with their pricing again. I'm betting that they wait until Microsoft announces price first, and then announce the PS4 will be the exact same price, which is exactly what they did with the Vita/3DS. Maybe if Sony has two SKUs they can get one down under $499.99, but what would they cut out? If there is a Sony Eye in one box it has to be in both, otherwise it negates the guarantee to developers that "everybody has one" and then why include it in either? If they can't take that out then what can they remove without changing what the SKUs can do? Hard drive size seems like the obvious answer but that will be more important than ever this gen (moreso if Sony follows Microsoft and doesn't let you swap them out). So, for "the good one"
Xbox One: $499.99
PlayStation 4: $499.99
I firmly believe they cannot cost more than that. Maybe with subsidizing or reduced features either one could offer a second model at less than that.
EDIT:
Not that this is very scientific or anything, but the original Xbox launched at $299.99 and the Xbox 360 launched at $399.99 so the Xbox One launching at $499.99 would fall into a pattern. The PlayStation 2 and PlayStation 3 (lower-end SKU) fits the same pattern. Also, that pricing increase just about keeps up with inflation; what cost $399.99 in 2005 would cost $465.11 in 2012 (the inflation calculator only runs up to 2012).
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